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INCY or JNJ or LLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Incyte Corporation (INCY) vs. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) vs. Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- INCY delivered strong Q4 revenue growth of 28% to $1.51B driven by Jakafi and Opzelura, but shares declined ~7% over recent weeks amid earnings misses on rising costs.
- JNJ exhibits stability with YTD gains of ~17%, a low P/E of 22, and recent FDA approvals in oncology and blood cancer, bolstered by diversified Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments.
- LLY powers ahead with 45% full-year revenue surge from tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound), though YTD down ~8% due to pricing pressures and competition in obesity/diabetes markets.
- Valuation contrasts: INCY at forward P/E ~13x offers value; JNJ ~22x balances growth/stability; LLY ~43x reflects premium growth expectations.
- Relative performance: JNJ leads YTD, LLY excels over 1-year (~23%), while INCY up ~50% annually but volatile recently.
- Sector momentum favors obesity/oncology plays, but diversified stability in JNJ mitigates biotech risks seen in INCY and high-valuation LLY.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines INCY, JNJ, and LLY amid evolving healthcare dynamics, including oncology advancements, obesity treatment demand, and regulatory approvals. These biopharma giants represent varied profiles: biotech-focused innovation in INCY, diversified stability in JNJ, and high-growth GLP-1 leadership in LLY. Traders seeking momentum and investors prioritizing relative performance, valuation sensitivity, and market positioning will find value in analyzing their recent trajectories, business models, and sentiment shifts for informed portfolio decisions.
INCY Overview and Recent Performance
Incyte Corporation (INCY), a Wilmington-based biopharmaceutical firm founded in 1991, specializes in discovering, developing, and commercializing small-molecule therapeutics for oncology, hematology, and inflammation. Key products include Jakafi for myelofibrosis and Opzelura cream for dermatological conditions. In recent market activity, shares hovered around $96, reflecting a market cap near $20B and forward P/E of ~13x. Q4 2025 revenue jumped 28% to $1.51B, beating estimates on higher product sales, though adjusted EPS missed at $1.80 due to elevated operating expenses. European approval for oncology drug Zynyz expanded its pipeline, boosting long-term potential, but sentiment softened with ~7% monthly declines and YTD ~6% drop amid competition and cost pressures. Robust cash flows and pipeline momentum support resilience in volatile biotech conditions.
JNJ Overview and Recent Performance
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), headquartered in New Brunswick, New Jersey, operates as a global healthcare leader through Innovative Medicine (pharmaceuticals in oncology, immunology, neuroscience) and MedTech segments. With ~135,000 employees, it delivers products like oncology treatments and surgical devices worldwide. Shares traded near $243, boasting a $585B market cap, P/E of 22, and ~2.1% dividend yield. Recent weeks saw modest gains, with YTD up ~17% and 1-year ~53%, outperforming benchmarks. Catalysts include FDA approval for a blood cancer drug under speedy review and Citi's price target hike to $274 on oncology pipeline strength. Steady revenue growth and low beta (0.33) underscore defensive appeal amid market swings, with analysts highlighting dividend reliability for income-focused investors.
LLY Overview and Recent Performance
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), founded in 1876 and based in Indianapolis, develops pharmaceuticals in diabetes, obesity, oncology, and immunology, led by tirzepatide franchise (Mounjaro/Zepbound). Serving ~125 countries with 47,000 employees, it reported 2025 revenue of $65B, up 45%. Shares near $985 reflect an $880B+ market cap and P/E ~43x. Recent performance showed monthly ~5% dips and YTD ~8% decline despite blockbuster demand, pressured by pricing scrutiny, competition, and supply issues. Q4 results highlighted tirzepatide strength, with $3B China investment signaling expansion. High growth (EPS up 86% in 2025) drives premium valuation, though volatility tempers short-term sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
INCY’s biotech model hinges on oncology/inflammation pipeline growth (e.g., Zynyz), contrasting JNJ’s diversified pharma/MedTech stability and LLY’s GLP-1 dominance. Revenue growth favors LLY (45%) over INCY (28% Q4) and JNJ (~6-9%), but INCY trades cheapest (forward P/E 13x) versus JNJ (22x) and LLY (43x). Recent momentum: JNJ leads YTD stability, LLY 1-year edge, INCY volatile. Risks include pipeline setbacks for INCY, litigation for JNJ, competition/pricing for LLY. Sentiment tilts growth-oriented for LLY, value/defensive for JNJ.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors JNJ for its trend consistency, low-beta stability (~0.33), diversified revenue ($94B TTM), attractive valuation (P/E 22x), and positive catalysts like oncology approvals amid sector volatility. While LLY offers superior growth prospects and INCY value, JNJ’s relative positioning—leading YTD performance and income reliability—provides the highest probability of outperformance in the near term based on observable momentum and risk-adjusted metrics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
INCY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileJNJ’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and LLY’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- INCY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- JNJ’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- LLY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
INCY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while JNJ’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and LLY’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- INCY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- JNJ’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- LLY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
INCY (@Biotechnology) experienced а +1.43% price change this week, while JNJ (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price change was -1.79% , and LLY (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price fluctuated -1.32% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Biotechnology industry was +6.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +12.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.94%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Major industry was +1.75%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.68%.
Reported Earning Dates
INCY is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
JNJ is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
LLY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Biotechnology (+6.61% weekly)Biotechnology involves genetic or protein engineering to produce medicines/therapies for treating and preventing ailments. The industry also provides crucial ingredients for diagnostics. This multi-billion-dollar industry is heavily focused on research and development, as companies attempt to continually come up with cutting-edge solutions for health. New discoveries for the treatment of diseases provide opportunities for growth for a company in this industry. Discoveries, however, must pass the regulatory approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before they can make it to markets. Amgen Inc., Gilead Sciences, Inc. and Celgene Corporation are examples of companies in this industry.
@Pharmaceuticals: Major (+1.75% weekly)The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.
| INCY | JNJ | LLY | |
| Capitalization | 19.3B | 556B | 822B |
| EBITDA | 1.76B | 41.1B | 31.7B |
| Gain YTD | -1.873 | 13.759 | -13.595 |
| P/E Ratio | 15.12 | 20.91 | 40.08 |
| Revenue | 5.14B | 94.2B | 65.2B |
| Total Cash | 3.58B | 20.1B | 7.27B |
| Total Debt | 40.4M | 47.9B | 42.5B |
INCY | JNJ | LLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 69 Overvalued | 26 Undervalued | 62 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 11 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 27 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 46 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 41 | 94 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
JNJ's Valuation (26) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LLY (62) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for INCY (69) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that JNJ's stock grew somewhat faster than LLY’s and somewhat faster than INCY’s over the last 12 months.
JNJ's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as LLY (20) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for INCY (72) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that JNJ's stock grew similarly to LLY’s and somewhat faster than INCY’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's SMR Rating (13) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as JNJ (27) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry, and is in the same range as INCY (32) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that LLY's stock grew similarly to JNJ’s and similarly to INCY’s over the last 12 months.
JNJ's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as INCY (47) in the Biotechnology industry, and is in the same range as LLY (55) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry. This means that JNJ's stock grew similarly to INCY’s and similarly to LLY’s over the last 12 months.
JNJ's P/E Growth Rating (41) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LLY (94) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for INCY (100) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that JNJ's stock grew somewhat faster than LLY’s and somewhat faster than INCY’s over the last 12 months.
| INCY | JNJ | LLY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | N/A | 4 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 42% | 4 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 52% | 4 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 32% | 4 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 40% | 4 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 42% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 61% | 12 days ago 44% | 12 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 41% | 5 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 38% | 4 days ago 57% |
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JNJ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JNJ has been loosely correlated with PFE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if JNJ jumps, then PFE could also see price increases.
LLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LLY has been loosely correlated with AZN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 45% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LLY jumps, then AZN could also see price increases.