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INTC or ON or TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Intel Corporation (INTC) vs. ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- TSM leads with robust AI-driven demand, delivering approximately 11-13% YTD returns and a market cap exceeding $1.7 trillion, underscoring its foundry dominance.
- INTC shows strong YTD gains around 17-18% but faces volatility from regulatory scrutiny over China-linked tools and recent price dips to ~$43.
- ON lags with modest 5% YTD performance amid inventory challenges in automotive and industrial segments, trading near $57 after recent declines.
- TSM's P/E ratio (~32x) reflects premium growth prospects versus INTC's negative earnings and ON's higher forward multiples, highlighting valuation contrasts.
- Semiconductor sector momentum favors AI catalysts for TSM, while INTC and ON grapple with execution risks in recent market activity.
Introduction
In the competitive semiconductor landscape, INTC, ON, and TSM represent diverse strategies: integrated design and manufacturing, power solutions for autos and industrials, and pure-play foundry leadership. This comparison analyzes their recent performance amid AI demand surges and supply chain pressures. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing long-term sector exposure will find insights into relative positioning, volatility, and catalysts shaping stock behavior in the current environment.
INTC Overview and Recent Performance
Intel Corporation (INTC) is a leading designer and manufacturer of semiconductors, focusing on CPUs for PCs, servers, and emerging AI applications while expanding its foundry services. In recent weeks, shares have traded around $43-46, reflecting YTD gains of about 18% driven by server demand optimism. Sentiment has been mixed due to U.S. lawmakers' concerns over China-linked chip tools and board chair retirement, contributing to volatility with a beta of 1.38. Recent alliances in AI and 6G offer growth potential, though negative EPS and high forward P/E (~85x) signal execution challenges in manufacturing ramps.
ON Overview and Recent Performance
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) specializes in power management and sensing solutions for automotive, industrial, and cloud data centers. Shares have hovered near $57 in recent market activity, posting modest YTD returns of around 5% amid broader sector pressures. Performance reflects persistent inventory gluts, with Q4 revenue at $1.53 billion missing estimates and segments declining up to 17%. Focus on higher-margin areas supports positive earnings revisions, but recent 6-15% weekly drops highlight sensitivity to EV demand slowdowns and cyclical risks.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), the world's top contract chipmaker, produces advanced nodes for AI leaders like Nvidia. Trading near $339 with a $1.76 trillion market cap, it has achieved 11-13% YTD gains, fueled by AI revenue projected at 30%+ of total. Recent weeks show strength from mega-fab expansions and robust January export orders, with 3nm/5nm wafers over 60% of sales. Geopolitical tensions pose risks, but high gross margins (~59%) and P/E of ~32x bolster sentiment amid consistent outperformance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
INTC pursues an integrated model with foundry ambitions, contrasting TSM's pure-play dominance (70% advanced market share) and ON's niche power/sensing focus. Growth drivers diverge: TSM benefits from AI hyperscaler demand, INTC from server CPUs and 18A node progress, ON from industrial recovery but hampered by auto inventory. Recent momentum favors TSM (95%+ 1-year returns), with INTC volatile post-scrutiny and ON flat. Risks include TSM's geopolitics (beta 1.28), INTC's losses (negative P/E), and ON's cyclicality. Valuation sensitivity shows TSM at reasonable 32x amid 30%+ growth, versus INTC's turnaround premium and ON's recovery multiple. Market sentiment tilts to TSM's stability over peers' trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TSM due to its trend consistency in AI chip demand, superior stability with high margins, and stronger relative positioning versus INTC's regulatory hurdles and ON's cyclical drags. Observable catalysts like fab expansions enhance its probabilistic edge in the semiconductor rally.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
INTC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileON’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TSM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- INTC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ON’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
INTC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ON’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and TSM’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- INTC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
INTC (@Semiconductors) experienced а +9.81% price change this week, while ON (@Semiconductors) price change was +20.92% , and TSM (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated -0.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +11.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
INTC is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
ON is expected to report earnings on May 04, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+11.63% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| INTC | ON | TSM | |
| Capitalization | 344B | 32.7B | 1.67T |
| EBITDA | 14.4B | 888M | 2.74T |
| Gain YTD | 85.637 | 53.296 | 22.602 |
| P/E Ratio | 904.17 | 286.24 | 31.83 |
| Revenue | 52.9B | 6B | 3.81T |
| Total Cash | 37.4B | 2.55B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 46.6B | 3.01B | N/A |
INTC | ON | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 47 | 42 | 26 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 89 Overvalued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 67 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 88 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 3 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 1 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (46) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (89) and is somewhat better than the same rating for INTC (96). This means that TSM's stock grew somewhat faster than ON’s and somewhat faster than INTC’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (67) and is significantly better than the same rating for INTC (86). This means that TSM's stock grew somewhat faster than ON’s and significantly faster than INTC’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's SMR Rating (26) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (88) and is somewhat better than the same rating for INTC (90). This means that TSM's stock grew somewhat faster than ON’s and somewhat faster than INTC’s over the last 12 months.
INTC's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ON (3) and is somewhat better than the same rating for TSM (39). This means that INTC's stock grew similarly to ON’s and somewhat faster than TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ON's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (20) and is significantly better than the same rating for INTC (87). This means that ON's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and significantly faster than INTC’s over the last 12 months.
| INTC | ON | TSM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 72% | 12 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 69% | 21 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 67% |
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