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IR or JCI or TT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ingersoll Rand (IR) vs. Johnson Controls (JCI) vs. Trane Technologies (TT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- TT leads YTD performance with approximately 25% gains, driven by strong Q1 earnings and a record $10.7 billion backlog in commercial HVAC.
- JCI shows robust 12-month returns of over 60%, bolstered by recent acquisitions like Nantum AI for energy optimization and steady revenue growth.
- IR trades at a lower P/E ratio around 51 amid Q1 earnings beats and acquisitions enhancing metering capabilities, but lags YTD at about 6%.
- All three benefit from industrials sector tailwinds like data center demand and sustainability trends, with TT and JCI showing superior market caps over $88 billion each.
- Recent analyst adjustments reflect cautious optimism, with price target reductions for IR post-earnings but upgrades for TT amid backlog strength.
- JCI and TT dominate HVAC exposure, while IR diversifies into compression and fluid technologies.
Introduction
In the industrials sector, particularly HVAC and related technologies, IR (Ingersoll Rand), JCI (Johnson Controls), and TT (Trane Technologies) stand out for their roles in energy efficiency, climate control, and industrial solutions. This comparison analyzes their recent market activity, earnings performance, and positioning amid rising demand from data centers, sustainability initiatives, and commercial construction. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing long-term growth in building technologies will find value in understanding their relative strengths, valuations, and sector dynamics.
IR Overview and Recent Performance
Ingersoll Rand (IR) is a global provider of mission-critical flow creation solutions, including compression, vacuum, and fluid management technologies for industrial, energy, and medical applications. Operating through Industrial Technologies and Services and Precision and Science Technologies segments, the company serves manufacturing, clean energy, and chemical processing sectors. In recent weeks, IR stock has traded around $75-80, reflecting a YTD decline of about 4-5% from early 2026 levels near $79. Q1 earnings surpassed estimates with adjusted EPS of $0.77 versus $0.74 expected and revenue of $1.85 billion up 8% year-over-year, though shares dipped post-report due to margin pressures and analyst target cuts. The acquisition of Fox s.r.l. bolsters metering capabilities, supporting sentiment amid a robust backlog, but broader market volatility and lowered price targets from $100+ to around $95 have tempered gains.
JCI Overview and Recent Performance
Johnson Controls International (JCI) specializes in building products and systems, including HVAC, fire/security, and energy solutions across Americas, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific. Post-divestiture of residential HVAC, it focuses on commercial HVAC (60% revenue) and fire/security (40%). Recent market activity has propelled shares to around $145, up over 20% YTD and 60% over 12 months, near 52-week highs of $147. The April acquisition of Nantum AI enhances OpenBlue platform for AI-driven energy optimization, aligning with data center and sustainability demand. Anticipation builds for Q2 earnings expecting $6.1 billion revenue and $1.12 adjusted EPS, following consistent beats. Positive analyst sentiment and sector rotation into building tech have driven momentum, though higher debt levels warrant monitoring.
TT Overview and Recent Performance
Trane Technologies (TT) delivers climate solutions via heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and transport refrigeration under Trane and Thermo King brands, with segments in Americas, EMEA, and Asia Pacific. Recent weeks saw shares around $470-490, up 22-25% YTD from $389, with a 52-week range of $348-$503. Q1 results exceeded forecasts: revenue $4.97 billion (up 6%), adjusted EPS $2.63 (beat $2.53), prompting raised FY EPS guidance to $14.75-$14.95 midpoint. A record $10.7 billion backlog underscores commercial HVAC strength, fueled by data centers and efficiency upgrades. Analyst upgrades, like Morgan Stanley to $565, reflect optimism, though recent pullbacks highlight valuation sensitivity at P/E near 37.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
IR, JCI, and TT operate in overlapping industrials/HVAC spaces but diverge in focus: IR emphasizes diversified compression/fluid tech (market cap ~$30B, P/E 51), JCI blends HVAC with security/services (~$89B, P/E 49, higher revenue $24B), and TT pure-plays climate solutions (~$106B, P/E 37, superior EBITDA $4.3B). Growth drivers favor TT (7.5% LTM revenue growth, 10% 3-year avg) over JCI (3.4%) and IR, tied to data centers and decarbonization. Recent momentum peaks at TT YTD 25%, JCI 20-22%, IR ~6%. Risks include cyclical construction, supply chains, and JCI's higher debt/beta (1.4). Valuation sensitivity highest for TT (pricey P/S 5.1), IR offers relative value. Sentiment tilts bullish on TT/HVAC catalysts versus IR's stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TT based on trend consistency, with the strongest YTD momentum, earnings beats, backlog visibility, and HVAC sector catalysts positioning it for relative outperformance. JCI trails closely on diversification and recent AI integrations, while IR lags in growth metrics. Probabilistic edges suggest 60-70% likelihood of TT leading short-term, though rotation risks persist.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileJCI’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and TT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- IR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- JCI’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while JCI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and TT’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- JCI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
IR (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а -6.31% price change this week, while JCI (@Building Products) price change was -3.15% , and TT (@Building Products) price fluctuated -3.37% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -2.62%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.33%, and the average quarterly price growth was +20.97%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was -1.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.72%, and the average quarterly price growth was +23.02%.
Reported Earning Dates
IR is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
JCI is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
TT is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-2.62% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Building Products (-1.02% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
| IR | JCI | TT | |
| Capitalization | 26.8B | 82.6B | 99B |
| EBITDA | 1.69B | 3.52B | 4.26B |
| Gain YTD | -13.438 | 13.434 | 15.388 |
| P/E Ratio | 46.31 | 41.41 | 34.23 |
| Revenue | 7.78B | 24.4B | 21.6B |
| Total Cash | N/A | 698M | 1.07B |
| Total Debt | 4.84B | 9.52B | 4.62B |
IR | JCI | TT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 71 | 75 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 79 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 16 | 12 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 83 | 40 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 33 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 33 | 18 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
JCI's Valuation (79) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as IR (80) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry, and is in the same range as TT (82) in the null industry. This means that JCI's stock grew similarly to IR’s and similarly to TT’s over the last 12 months.
TT's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the null industry is in the same range as JCI (16) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for IR (69) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that TT's stock grew similarly to JCI’s and somewhat faster than IR’s over the last 12 months.
TT's SMR Rating (26) in the null industry is in the same range as JCI (40) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for IR (83) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that TT's stock grew similarly to JCI’s and somewhat faster than IR’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's Price Growth Rating (33) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as TT (43) in the null industry, and is in the same range as IR (64) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that JCI's stock grew similarly to TT’s and similarly to IR’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as IR (33) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry, and is in the same range as TT (48) in the null industry. This means that JCI's stock grew similarly to IR’s and similarly to TT’s over the last 12 months.
| IR | JCI | TT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | N/A | 2 days ago 52% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 65% | 6 days ago 64% | 6 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 66% |
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IR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IR has been closely correlated with JCI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IR jumps, then JCI could also see price increases.
JCI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JCI has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if JCI jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JCI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCI | 100% | -1.38% | ||
| IR - JCI | 77% Closely correlated | -2.04% | ||
| TT - JCI | 64% Loosely correlated | -2.70% | ||
| CARR - JCI | 55% Loosely correlated | -4.76% | ||
| SPXC - JCI | 49% Loosely correlated | -2.33% | ||
| TREX - JCI | 44% Loosely correlated | -5.08% | ||
More | ||||
TT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TT has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TT jumps, then IR could also see price increases.