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JNJ or LLY or MRK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) vs. Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs. Merck & Co. (MRK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- JNJ leads YTD performance with approximately 17% gains, driven by oncology advancements and analyst upgrades, offering stability with a 2.15% dividend yield.
- LLY shows robust revenue growth from GLP-1 drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound but trails YTD at around -8%, reflecting high valuations at 43x P/E amid sector volatility.
- MRK delivers solid YTD returns near 10%, supported by Keytruda sales and a lower 16x P/E, though faces patent risks.
- All three exhibit diversified healthcare exposure, but JNJ and MRK provide higher yields (2.15% and ~2.7%) versus LLY's 0.6%.
- Recent momentum favors JNJ with price target hikes to $274, while LLY and MRK navigate competitive pressures in obesity and oncology.
- Market caps highlight scale: JNJ ~$585B, LLY ~$885B, MRK ~$285B.
Introduction
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), and Merck & Co. (MRK) represent pillars of the healthcare sector, spanning pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and innovative therapies. This stock comparison evaluates their recent market positioning, performance, and key drivers amid evolving sector dynamics like oncology breakthroughs and obesity treatments. Investors seeking defensive stability may favor JNJ's diversification, while growth-oriented traders eye LLY's GLP-1 momentum. MRK offers a balanced profile with strong oncology reliance. Understanding relative performance aids portfolio allocation in volatile markets.
JNJ Overview and Recent Performance
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), a diversified healthcare giant, operates in Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments, generating over $94 billion in 2025 revenue with steady operational growth. Recent market activity has seen JNJ shares rise about 17% YTD to around $242, buoyed by Q4 sales up 9% to $24.6 billion and raised 2026 guidance targeting $100 billion in sales. Sentiment benefits from oncology progress, including promising Erda-iDRS trial data and FDA approvals like TECNIS PureSee IOL and Tecvayli-Darzalex combinations. Analyst upgrades, such as Citi's price target to $274, underscore pipeline strength in immunology and atrial fibrillation innovations like VARIPULSE. Despite talc litigation headwinds, diversified products and MedTech gains drive consistent upward price behavior and a P/E of ~22x.
LLY Overview and Recent Performance
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) specializes in innovative therapies, particularly cardiometabolic and immunology, powering blockbuster GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound. The firm reported 2025 revenue of $65.2 billion, up 45%, with Q4 surging 43% to $19.3 billion. Shares hover near $985, down ~8% YTD after a pullback, amid high demand yet supply constraints and competitive obesity market pressures. Positive catalysts include Phase 3 data for EBGLYSS in pediatric atopic dermatitis, $3 billion China investment, and pipeline advances like orforglipron oral GLP-1. High P/E around 43x reflects growth premium, with sentiment tempered by pricing concerns and recent volatility, though 2026 guidance of $80-83 billion supports long-term positioning.
MRK Overview and Recent Performance
Merck & Co. (MRK), a leader in oncology, vaccines, and animal health, relies on Keytruda for steady growth, posting Q4 2025 revenue up 5% to $16.4 billion and full-year $65 billion. Shares trade around $115, up ~10% YTD, with recent dips amid broader sector moves. Key drivers include Keytruda's $8.4 billion Q4 sales and 2026 outlook of $65.5-67 billion, alongside a separate cancer division launch ahead of patent expiry. Analyst targets average $128, supported by Sac-TMT potential and Leerink upgrades, though Gardasil softness in China and Keytruda dependency pose risks. At ~16x P/E and 2.7% yield, MRK appeals for value, with stable demand fostering resilient performance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
JNJ, LLY, and MRK contrast in business models: JNJ's broad pharma-MedTech diversification versus LLY's high-growth GLP-1 focus and MRK's oncology-vaccine emphasis. Growth drivers differ—LLY boasts 45% revenue surge from obesity drugs, outpacing JNJ's 5-6% and MRK's 5%—but recent momentum favors JNJ (17% YTD) over MRK (10%) and LLY (-8%). Risk factors include MRK/Keytruda patent cliffs, LLY competition/pricing, and JNJ litigation. All share healthcare exposure, but MRK and JNJ trade at lower P/E (16-22x vs. LLY's 43x), with superior yields. Sentiment tilts positive on JNJ catalysts versus peers' volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors JNJ for its trend consistency, YTD outperformance, diversified stability, attractive valuation, and recent catalysts like oncology trials and upgrades. While LLY offers superior growth potential and MRK value, JNJ's relative positioning suggests higher probability of near-term upside in uncertain markets.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
JNJ’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileLLY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and MRK’s FA Score reflects 4 green FA rating(s).
- JNJ’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- LLY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MRK’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
JNJ’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LLY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and MRK’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- JNJ’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- LLY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MRK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
JNJ (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) experienced а -1.79% price change this week, while LLY (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price change was -1.32% , and MRK (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price fluctuated -1.94% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Major industry was +1.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.48%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.89%.
Reported Earning Dates
JNJ is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
LLY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
MRK is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Pharmaceuticals: Major (+1.21% weekly)The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.
| JNJ | LLY | MRK | |
| Capitalization | 564B | 828B | 294B |
| EBITDA | 41.1B | 31.7B | 28.3B |
| Gain YTD | 13.759 | -13.595 | 13.958 |
| P/E Ratio | 21.23 | 40.39 | 16.36 |
| Revenue | 94.2B | 65.2B | 65B |
| Total Cash | 20.1B | 7.27B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 47.9B | 42.5B | 49.3B |
JNJ | LLY | MRK | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 67 | 55 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 26 Undervalued | 62 Fair valued | 21 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 20 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 27 | 13 | 25 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 55 | 16 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 94 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MRK's Valuation (21) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as JNJ (26) and is somewhat better than the same rating for LLY (62). This means that MRK's stock grew similarly to JNJ’s and somewhat faster than LLY’s over the last 12 months.
JNJ's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as LLY (20) and is somewhat better than the same rating for MRK (48). This means that JNJ's stock grew similarly to LLY’s and somewhat faster than MRK’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's SMR Rating (13) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as MRK (25) and is in the same range as JNJ (27). This means that LLY's stock grew similarly to MRK’s and similarly to JNJ’s over the last 12 months.
MRK's Price Growth Rating (16) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as JNJ (46) and is somewhat better than the same rating for LLY (55). This means that MRK's stock grew similarly to JNJ’s and somewhat faster than LLY’s over the last 12 months.
MRK's P/E Growth Rating (28) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as JNJ (41) and is significantly better than the same rating for LLY (94). This means that MRK's stock grew similarly to JNJ’s and significantly faster than LLY’s over the last 12 months.
| JNJ | LLY | MRK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 74% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 42% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 32% | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 48% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 42% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 44% | 11 days ago 71% | 18 days ago 52% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 38% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 54% |
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MRK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRK has been loosely correlated with PFE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MRK jumps, then PFE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MRK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRK | 100% | +3.13% | ||
| PFE - MRK | 63% Loosely correlated | +1.25% | ||
| BMY - MRK | 62% Loosely correlated | +2.05% | ||
| BIIB - MRK | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.76% | ||
| GSK - MRK | 54% Loosely correlated | +2.14% | ||
| AMGN - MRK | 54% Loosely correlated | +1.69% | ||
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