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KDP or KO or STZ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. Coca-Cola (KO) vs. Constellation Brands (STZ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KDP exhibits undervaluation with analysts forecasting up to 26% upside, supported by recent Q4 earnings beats and strategic acquisitions like JDE Peet's.
- KO demonstrates stability as a Dividend King, with 2025 net revenues at $47.9 billion and EPS up 23%, though recent momentum has softened.
- STZ faces headwinds from declining sales in wine and spirits but benefits from premium beer brands like Modelo, with YTD gains around 6-7%.
- KDP trades at a lower P/E ratio (~18x) compared to KO (~25x) and STZ (~23x), offering relative value in the beverage sector.
- All three stocks show resilience in consumer staples, but KO's market cap (~$331B) dwarfs KDP (~$38B) and STZ (~$25B).
- Recent market activity highlights growth catalysts for KDP amid share rebounds, while STZ contends with sector-specific pressures.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines KDP (Keurig Dr Pepper), KO (Coca-Cola), and STZ (Constellation Brands) in the beverage sector, focusing on their relative performance, valuation, and market positioning. These companies span non-alcoholic soft drinks, coffee systems, and premium beers/wines/spirits, offering insights into consumer staples resilience amid shifting preferences for healthier options and premiumization. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors prioritizing dividends or growth will find value in analyzing their recent trajectories, analyst sentiment, and sector exposure for informed portfolio decisions in today's dynamic market.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), a leading North American beverage firm, boasts a portfolio exceeding 125 brands in soft drinks, coffee, tea, and emerging categories like energy drinks. With annual revenues over $16 billion, it dominates single-serve coffee via Keurig systems and flavors like Dr Pepper. Recent market activity has seen KDP shares rebound, climbing around 6% in recent 30-day periods, buoyed by Q4 2025 earnings and revenues surpassing estimates by 1.45% and 3.13%, respectively. Analyst upgrades, including Wells Fargo raising targets to $40, signal 26% upside potential, driven by undervaluation and the $18 billion JDE Peet's acquisition enhancing global coffee reach. Sentiment has improved on innovation in zero-sugar variants and strategic financing updates, though longer-term YTD returns lag at ~1.7%.
KO Overview and Recent Performance
The Coca-Cola Company (KO) stands as the world's largest non-alcoholic beverage producer, with products in over 200 countries, emphasizing sparkling drinks, waters, juices, and teas. Its 2025 results featured 2% net revenue growth to $47.9 billion and 23% EPS rise to $3.04, underscoring disciplined pricing and brand strength. Shares hit 52-week highs near $80 recently but have since moderated, with YTD gains around 10% and 1-year returns at ~9-12%. As a Dividend King with 64 years of increases, KO appeals to income investors, though currency headwinds and cost pressures temper momentum. Recent weeks reflect steady performance amid leadership transitions and focus on low-sugar innovations like Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, which grew 14% annually, bolstering defensive positioning in volatile markets.
STZ Overview and Recent Performance
Constellation Brands (STZ) specializes in premium beer, wine, and spirits, with key brands like Corona, Modelo Especial, and Robert Mondavi. Operations span the U.S., Mexico, and beyond, generating ~84% of revenue from Mexican beer imports. Q3 fiscal 2026 results highlighted resilience in beer despite wine/spirits declines, contributing to YTD returns of ~6-7% and mixed 1-year performance around -9% to +16%. Recent share price dips (~3-10% monthly) stem from sales challenges, yet premiumization in beers like Pacifico supports undervaluation narratives with fair value estimates near $171. CEO transitions and focus on high-end segments influence sentiment, positioning STZ for recovery amid sector trade-offs.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
KDP, KO, and STZ operate in beverages but diverge in models: KDP blends coffee/soft drinks with acquisition-driven growth; KO excels in global scale and stability; STZ leans on premium alcohol amid regulatory risks. Growth drivers favor KDP's innovations and STZ's beer momentum over KO's steady volumes. Recent momentum shows KDP rebounding strongest, STZ volatile, KO consistent. Risks include STZ's sales declines, KDP's debt from deals, and KO's forex exposure. Valuation sensitivity highlights KDP's lower P/E (~18x) versus peers, with KO at 25x reflecting premium stability. Market sentiment tilts toward KDP's upside potential amid analyst optimism.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors KDP due to superior trend consistency from earnings beats, share rebounds, and acquisition catalysts positioning it for outperformance. While KO offers unmatched stability and STZ premium exposure, KDP's relative undervaluation and momentum suggest higher probabilistic near-term gains in the beverage space.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KDP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and STZ’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- STZ’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KDP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KO’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and STZ’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KDP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- STZ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) experienced а +1.77% price change this week, while KO (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was -1.22% , and STZ (@Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy) price fluctuated -2.33% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -1.29%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.30%, and the average quarterly price growth was +83822.82%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy industry was +0.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.64%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.43%.
Reported Earning Dates
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
KO is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
STZ is expected to report earnings on Jul 08, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-1.29% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
@Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy (+0.01% weekly)The meat, fish, and dairy food industry processes livestock, fish and milk products for consumer consumption. Some companies also process dairy byproducts. Tyson Foods, Inc., Hormel Foods Corporation and Pilgrims Pride Corp. are some of the biggest producers in this industry. Many of these companies are recipients of American farm subsidies. On the other hand, new-age food innovation like plant-based meat substitutes (which are designed to simulate chicken, beef, and pork sausage) could potentially augur disruptions and/or create new competition in this space.
| KDP | KO | STZ | |
| Capitalization | 36B | 325B | 27.7B |
| EBITDA | 4.19B | 18.7B | 2.47B |
| Gain YTD | -3.765 | 8.710 | 16.599 |
| P/E Ratio | 17.32 | 24.83 | 16.63 |
| Revenue | 16.6B | 47.9B | 9.38B |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | 152M |
| Total Debt | 17.6B | 45.5B | 10.7B |
KDP | KO | STZ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 41 Fair valued | 47 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 13 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 75 | 20 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 52 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 78 | 79 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KDP's Valuation (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as KO (41) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as STZ (47) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that KDP's stock grew similarly to KO’s and similarly to STZ’s over the last 12 months.
KO's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for STZ (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that KO's stock grew significantly faster than KDP’s and significantly faster than STZ’s over the last 12 months.
KO's SMR Rating (20) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is somewhat better than the same rating for STZ (55) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (75) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that KO's stock grew somewhat faster than STZ’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
STZ's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as KO (52) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as KDP (61) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that STZ's stock grew similarly to KO’s and similarly to KDP’s over the last 12 months.
KO's P/E Growth Rating (78) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as STZ (79) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as KDP (95) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that KO's stock grew similarly to STZ’s and similarly to KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| KDP | KO | STZ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 61% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 42% | 4 days ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 39% | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 40% | 4 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 35% | 4 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 31% | 4 days ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 12 days ago 39% | 11 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 46% | 5 days ago 30% | 6 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 15% | 4 days ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 35% | 4 days ago 21% | 4 days ago 44% |
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STZ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STZ has been loosely correlated with SAM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if STZ jumps, then SAM could also see price increases.