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KDP or KR or MO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. Kroger (KR) vs. Altria Group (MO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KDP shares have declined approximately 13% over recent weeks amid cost pressures and coffee headwinds, underperforming peers despite prior earnings beats.
- KR exhibits stronger relative momentum with year-to-date gains around 15%, bolstered by investments in stores and Q4 earnings that exceeded estimates.
- MO maintains stability with YTD returns near 12%, supported by high dividend yield and resilient margins in a challenging tobacco environment.
- Consumer staples sector exposure varies: KDP in beverages faces volume softness, KR in grocery benefits from essential demand, and MO in tobacco shows defensive qualities.
- Recent market activity highlights KR's outperformance in relative price strength, while KDP lags due to sector-specific pressures.
- Valuation sensitivity favors dividend-focused investors in MO and growth-oriented ones in KR.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines KDP, KR, and MO, three consumer staples giants navigating shifting market dynamics. KDP leads in beverages, KR dominates grocery retail, and MO holds tobacco supremacy. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing defensive yields or relative performance will find value in analyzing their recent price behavior, sector contrasts, and positioning amid economic pressures like inflation and consumer spending shifts. This overview draws on verifiable data to highlight key trade-offs in the current environment.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
KDP, or Keurig Dr Pepper, is a leading North American beverage company with over 125 brands spanning soft drinks, coffee, teas, and waters. Its portfolio includes Dr Pepper, Snapple, and Keurig single-serve systems, generating annual revenue exceeding $15 billion through robust distribution to retailers and e-commerce.
In recent market activity, KDP shares have trended lower, down about 13% from late February levels around $31 to the mid-$26 range. This follows a Q4 2025 earnings beat with 10.5% revenue growth to $4.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.60, driven by U.S. refreshment beverages and acquisitions like GHOST. However, sentiment has softened due to ongoing cost pressures, coffee category headwinds, and a 12.5% post-earnings decline. Analysts note pricing strategies and growth initiatives, with some raising price targets to $40 amid perceived value, though shares remain volatile ahead of Q1 2026 results.
KR Overview and Recent Performance
KR, The Kroger Co., operates over 2,700 supermarkets across 35 states under banners like Kroger and Harris Teeter, alongside fuel centers, pharmacies, and manufacturing facilities. With fiscal 2025 sales topping $147 billion, it emphasizes affordable groceries, digital loyalty programs, and supply chain efficiency.
Recent weeks show KR with resilient performance, trading around $71 after peaking near $76. Year-to-date gains approach 15%, outpacing the S&P 500. Q4 2025 earnings beat expectations with EPS of $1.28, and the company announced $112 million in Ohio investments for store renovations and fuel rewards. Despite merger uncertainties, comparable sales guidance of 1-2% for 2026 and analyst upgrades like Evercore ISI's Outperform sustain positive momentum, reflecting steady essential demand.
MO Overview and Recent Performance
MO, Altria Group, dominates U.S. tobacco with brands like Marlboro cigarettes, Black & Mild cigars, and smoke-free products including on! pouches and NJOY vapes. Headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, it focuses on combustibles and reduced-risk alternatives, bolstered by stakes in Anheuser-Busch InBev and Cronos.
MO shares hover near $64, with YTD returns around 12% and a 3.5% dividend yield providing downside protection. Recent activity reflects short-term pressure from declining cigarette volumes and competition, yet strong margins and cash flow persist. Trading above key moving averages longer-term, it benefits from defensive positioning, with analysts viewing it as undervalued relative to peers despite industry headwinds.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
KDP, KR, and MO operate in consumer staples but diverge in business models: KDP's branded beverages emphasize innovation amid volume risks, KR's retail focuses on scale and essentials with margin squeezes from competition, and MO's tobacco relies on pricing power despite regulatory headwinds.
Growth drivers contrast: KR leverages store investments and digital, MO pivots to smoke-free, while KDP faces coffee softness. Recent momentum favors KR with 15% YTD gains versus MO's 12% and KDP's declines. Risk factors include commodity costs for KDP, merger scrutiny for KR, and volume erosion for MO. Valuation sensitivity shows MO attractive on P/E, KR on growth, with sentiment tilted toward retail stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors KR based on superior trend consistency, recent momentum surpassing the S&P 500, and positive catalysts like earnings beats and expansion investments. While MO offers stability and yield, and KDP">KDP shows rebound potential post-earnings, KR's relative positioning in essential retail suggests higher probability of outperformance in the near term amid market volatility.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KDP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and MO’s FA Score reflects 4 green FA rating(s).
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MO’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KDP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and MO’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KDP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) experienced а +1.77% price change this week, while KR (@Food Retail) price change was -0.21% , and MO (@Tobacco) price fluctuated -3.29% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was +0.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2127.54%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Retail industry was +2.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.30%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -0.12%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.56%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.85%.
Reported Earning Dates
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
KR is expected to report earnings on Jun 11, 2026.
MO is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (+0.13% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
@Food Retail (+2.11% weekly)The food retail industry includes companies that sell food, beverage and household products. Items sold include grocery, gourmet food, fresh produce, and frozen food. Kroger Co., George Weston Ltd., Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., and Sprouts Farmers Markets, Inc. are examples of major food retailers. While e-commerce companies like Amazon have increasingly been ramping-up offerings in the food retail space, several traditional players have also been expanding their online presence to stand their ground against rising competition.
@Tobacco (-0.12% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| KDP | KR | MO | |
| Capitalization | 36B | 41.6B | 108B |
| EBITDA | 4.19B | 5.76B | 10.8B |
| Gain YTD | -3.765 | 9.204 | 13.931 |
| P/E Ratio | 17.32 | 44.08 | 15.68 |
| Revenue | 16.6B | 148B | 20.1B |
| Total Cash | N/A | 4.58B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 17.6B | 24.7B | 25.7B |
KDP | KR | MO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 54 | 56 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 55 Fair valued | 8 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 25 | 13 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 75 | 56 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 59 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 11 | 16 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MO's Valuation (8) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as KDP (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KR (55) in the Food Retail industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to KDP’s and somewhat faster than KR’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as KR (25) in the Food Retail industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to KR’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
MO's SMR Rating (9) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KR (56) in the Food Retail industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (75) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew somewhat faster than KR’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as KR (59) in the Food Retail industry, and is in the same range as KDP (61) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to KR’s and similarly to KDP’s over the last 12 months.
KR's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as MO (16) in the Tobacco industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (95) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that KR's stock grew similarly to MO’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| KDP | KR | MO | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 65% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 37% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 40% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 40% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 49% | 5 days ago 57% | 13 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 46% | 7 days ago 46% | 7 days ago 37% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 36% | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 22% |
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KDP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KDP has been loosely correlated with PEP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 48% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KDP jumps, then PEP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KDP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 100% | -0.11% | ||
| PEP - KDP | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.43% | ||
| KO - KDP | 45% Loosely correlated | -0.34% | ||
| FIZZ - KDP | 45% Loosely correlated | -1.28% | ||
| MNST - KDP | 31% Poorly correlated | +0.66% | ||
| CCEP - KDP | 27% Poorly correlated | -1.52% | ||
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