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KDP or MO or PG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. Altria Group (MO) vs. Procter & Gamble (PG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KDP shares have shown resilience with recent Q4 earnings beats and analyst upside targets around 26%, trading at a forward P/E of about 12.7 with a 3.3% dividend yield.
- MO leads in relative performance with YTD gains over 15% and a high 6.4% dividend yield, supported by growth in oral nicotine amid declining cigarette volumes.
- PG offers stability as a Dividend King with 70 years of increases and YTD returns near 8%, though recent momentum has softened due to category pressures.
- All three exhibit defensive consumer staples traits, but MO shows strongest recent momentum while KDP appears undervalued on forward metrics.
- Market caps range from $38B for KDP to $357B for PG, highlighting scale differences in beverages, tobacco, and household goods.
- Recent weeks reflect broader sector rotation toward high-yield defensives like MO amid volatility.
Introduction
This comparison examines KDP, MO, and PG, three stalwarts in consumer staples spanning beverages, tobacco, and household essentials. Investors seeking defensive positioning with income appeal may find value here, as these stocks offer dividends, brand strength, and resilience in uncertain markets. Recent market activity highlights their relative performance in yield, growth transitions, and valuation, aiding traders in assessing momentum, stability, and sector trade-offs amid evolving consumer trends.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
KDP, formed from the merger of Keurig Green Mountain and Dr Pepper Snapple, is a leading North American beverage company with over 125 brands including Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, and Keurig pods. It operates in refreshment beverages, coffee, and international segments, generating $16.6B in trailing revenue. In recent market activity, shares around $28 have displayed resilience, climbing in recent weeks post-Q4 earnings that beat estimates by 1.45% on revenue and 3% growth. Analysts project 26% upside, driven by coffee system strength and packaged beverage volumes, though YTD gains lag at under 1% amid broader pullbacks. Sentiment benefits from undervaluation signals like a trailing P/E of 18.5 and 3.3% yield, contrasting softer 1-year returns.
MO Overview and Recent Performance
MO, or Altria Group, is a major U.S. tobacco holding company owning Philip Morris USA (Marlboro), U.S. Smokeless Tobacco (Copenhagen, Skoal), and brands like on! pouches and NJOY vapes. It focuses on combustibles, oral nicotine, and e-vapor amid declining cigarette shipments. Shares near $66 have outperformed recently, with YTD returns exceeding 15% and 3-month surges around 19%, fueled by oral nicotine growth offsetting volume declines. A robust 6.4% dividend yield and stable EPS outlook support income focus, though regulatory risks linger. Trailing P/E of 16 reflects value, with recent analyst target hikes reinforcing positive momentum in recent weeks.
PG Overview and Recent Performance
PG, Procter & Gamble, is a global consumer goods giant with brands like Tide, Pampers, Gillette, and Olay across beauty, grooming, health, fabric, and baby care, posting $85B trailing revenue. As a 70-year Dividend King, it yields 2.8%. Shares around $154 have held steady YTD up nearly 8%, buoyed by analyst Buy ratings and $181 targets, but recent weeks saw pullbacks from category softness, tariffs, and competition, with 1-month dips over 2%. Stability persists via diversified portfolio and EPS growth, though P/E near 23 signals premium valuation amid macroeconomic pressures.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
KDP and PG emphasize non-alcoholic beverages and household staples with broad portfolios, contrasting MO's tobacco focus shifting to smoke-free via pouches and vapes. Growth drivers differ: KDP leverages coffee pods and RTD innovation, MO oral nicotine expansion, PG premiumization in health/beauty. Recent momentum favors MO (15%+ YTD) over PG (8%) and flat KDP. Risks include regulation for MO, commodity costs for PG/KDP. Valuation sensitivity shows KDP cheapest (fwd P/E 13), MO 12, PG 22; yields peak at MO 6.4% vs. 3.3%/2.8%. Sentiment tilts to income defensives like MO in volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward MO based on superior trend consistency, YTD momentum exceeding 15%, high yield stability, and relative strength in recent weeks versus peers. Catalysts like smoke-free growth and undervalued forward metrics enhance positioning, though KDP's earnings upside offers close contention. Probabilistic edge favors MO for current conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KDP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMO’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s), and PG’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MO’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- PG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KDP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PG’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KDP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) experienced а -0.15% price change this week, while MO (@Tobacco) price change was -4.76% , and PG (@Household/Personal Care) price fluctuated +1.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -0.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2073.90%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.25%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +0.96%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.44%.
Reported Earning Dates
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
MO is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
PG is expected to report earnings on Apr 24, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-0.77% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
@Tobacco (-1.34% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
@Household/Personal Care (+0.96% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
| KDP | MO | PG | |
| Capitalization | 36B | 107B | 341B |
| EBITDA | 4.19B | 10.8B | 24.5B |
| Gain YTD | -3.656 | 13.155 | 3.254 |
| P/E Ratio | 17.34 | 15.58 | 21.77 |
| Revenue | 16.6B | 20.1B | 85.3B |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | 10.8B |
| Total Debt | 17.6B | 25.7B | 36.6B |
KDP | MO | PG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 56 | 51 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 8 Undervalued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 14 | 54 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 75 | 9 | 30 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 34 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 15 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MO's Valuation (8) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as KDP (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as PG (39) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to KDP’s and similarly to PG’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Profit vs Risk Rating (14) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PG (54) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew somewhat faster than PG’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
MO's SMR Rating (9) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PG (30) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (75) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to PG’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PG (59) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as KDP (61) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to PG’s and similarly to KDP’s over the last 12 months.
MO's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for PG (81) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (95) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew significantly faster than PG’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| KDP | MO | PG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | N/A | 3 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 39% | 3 days ago 35% | 3 days ago 41% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 46% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 43% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 31% | 3 days ago 43% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 11 days ago 53% | 11 days ago 45% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 46% | 5 days ago 37% | 4 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 36% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 35% | 3 days ago 23% | 3 days ago 35% |
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