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KDP or MO or STZ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. Altria Group (MO) vs. Constellation Brands (STZ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KDP shows analyst optimism with a 26% upside potential from recent price targets around $35, driven by refreshment beverages growth and strategic acquisitions, though shares lag YTD.
- MO leads YTD performance at over 15% and offers a high 6.1% dividend yield, bolstered by oral nicotine growth and price target hikes to $63.
- STZ trades at a premium valuation with mixed recent momentum, facing sales challenges but maintaining a moderate buy consensus and 2.8% yield.
- Consumer staples sector provides defensive exposure, with MO excelling in stability and income, while KDP offers growth catalysts.
- Relative performance highlights MO's outperformance over 1-year returns near 18%, contrasting KDP and STZ's declines.
- Valuation sensitivity favors MO at lower forward P/E amid steady EPS outlook.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines KDP, MO, and STZ, three consumer staples leaders spanning non-alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and alcoholic beverages. Investors seeking defensive positions with income and moderate growth in volatile markets may find value here. Recent market activity underscores relative momentum, valuation contrasts, and sector resilience, aiding traders in assessing positioning amid shifting sentiment in beverages and tobacco. Key metrics like dividends, P/E ratios, and analyst targets provide objective insights into their current market standing.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
KDP, a leading North American beverage company with over 125 brands including Dr Pepper and Keurig coffee systems, operates in refreshment beverages, coffee, and international segments. Recent market activity has seen shares rebound around 8% over the past 30 days, trading near $28 with a market cap of $38 billion. Analyst upgrades, including Wells Fargo raising targets to $40, reflect optimism on a potential 26% upside to $35, fueled by refreshment beverages growth and coffee portfolio reshaping via acquisitions like JDE Peet's. Sentiment benefits from DCF models suggesting 34% undervaluation, though debt from deals tempers gains. YTD returns hover near 1-4%, underperforming broader indices amid 1-year declines of 12-14%.
MO Overview and Recent Performance
MO, through subsidiaries like Philip Morris USA, dominates U.S. tobacco with cigarettes, smokeless, and oral nicotine products, pursuing a smoke-free transition. Shares trade around $66-67 with a $110 billion-plus market cap, delivering strong YTD gains over 15% and 1-year returns near 18%. Recent weeks feature price target lifts to $63 by Barclays amid oral nicotine momentum and 6.1% dividend yield appeal. Stability shines in recent market activity, with shares rising in February on growth engines like nicotine pouches offsetting cigarette volume declines. Consensus EPS for 2026 at $5.57 supports sentiment, though regulatory risks persist.
STZ Overview and Recent Performance
STZ produces and markets premium beer like Modelo and Corona, wines, and spirits across U.S., Mexico, and beyond. Shares hover near $146-147 with a $26 billion market cap, posting YTD gains around 7% but 1-year declines of 15%. Recent performance shows choppiness, with 3-5% monthly drops amid sales pressures, though 90-day gains near 10% and moderate buy ratings with $171 targets suggest 15% upside. Premiumization strategy supports resilience, but competition and revenue softness influence sentiment. Dividend yield stands at 2.8%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
KDP’s non-alcoholic focus contrasts STZ’s premium alcohol and MO’s tobacco model, with growth from beverages innovation versus nicotine shifts. Recent momentum favors MO (15%+ YTD) over KDP (1-4%) and STZ (7%), reflecting tobacco stability. Risk factors include KDP/debt, STZ/sales declines, MO/regulation. Sector exposure yields defensive traits, but valuation sensitivity shows MO’s attractive forward P/E (~12x) versus KDP (13x) and STZ (23x). Sentiment tilts to MO’s yield/income trade-off against growth bets in others.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI would currently favor MO due to superior trend consistency, YTD/1-year outperformance, high dividend stability, and favorable relative positioning in consumer staples amid volatility. Observable catalysts like nicotine growth and analyst upgrades enhance probabilistic edge over KDP’s acquisition-driven potential and STZ’s premium recovery.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KDP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMO’s FA Score has 5 green FA rating(s), and STZ’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MO’s FA Score: 5 green, 0 red.
- STZ’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KDP’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MO’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and STZ’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KDP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- STZ’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) experienced а +4.39% price change this week, while MO (@Tobacco) price change was +2.59% , and STZ (@Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy) price fluctuated +7.85% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was +2.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +164976.25%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was +1.70%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.58%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.40%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy industry was +3.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.13%.
Reported Earning Dates
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
MO is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
STZ is expected to report earnings on Jul 08, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (+2.02% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
@Tobacco (+1.70% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
@Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy (+3.37% weekly)The meat, fish, and dairy food industry processes livestock, fish and milk products for consumer consumption. Some companies also process dairy byproducts. Tyson Foods, Inc., Hormel Foods Corporation and Pilgrims Pride Corp. are some of the biggest producers in this industry. Many of these companies are recipients of American farm subsidies. On the other hand, new-age food innovation like plant-based meat substitutes (which are designed to simulate chicken, beef, and pork sausage) could potentially augur disruptions and/or create new competition in this space.
| KDP | MO | STZ | |
| Capitalization | 35.9B | 113B | 28.3B |
| EBITDA | 4.19B | 10.8B | 2.47B |
| Gain YTD | -4.056 | 18.957 | 18.970 |
| P/E Ratio | 17.27 | 16.37 | 16.97 |
| Revenue | 16.6B | 20.1B | 9.38B |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | 152M |
| Total Debt | 17.6B | 25.7B | 10.7B |
KDP | MO | STZ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 63 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 10 Undervalued | 48 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 9 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 74 | 9 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 29 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 13 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MO's Valuation (10) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as KDP (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for STZ (48) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to KDP’s and somewhat faster than STZ’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for STZ (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew significantly faster than KDP’s and significantly faster than STZ’s over the last 12 months.
MO's SMR Rating (9) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for STZ (55) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (74) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew somewhat faster than STZ’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Price Growth Rating (29) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as STZ (55) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (62) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to STZ’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
MO's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (94) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for STZ (98) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew significantly faster than KDP’s and significantly faster than STZ’s over the last 12 months.
| KDP | MO | STZ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | N/A | 1 day ago 48% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 40% | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 53% | 4 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 45% | 9 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 35% | 1 day ago 20% | 1 day ago 38% |
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KDP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KDP has been loosely correlated with PEP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KDP jumps, then PEP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KDP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 100% | +2.24% | ||
| PEP - KDP | 51% Loosely correlated | +1.74% | ||
| KO - KDP | 49% Loosely correlated | +1.15% | ||
| FIZZ - KDP | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.34% | ||
| MNST - KDP | 34% Loosely correlated | +1.40% | ||
| CCEP - KDP | 32% Poorly correlated | +0.49% | ||
More | ||||
MO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MO has been loosely correlated with PM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MO jumps, then PM could also see price increases.
STZ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STZ has been loosely correlated with SAM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if STZ jumps, then SAM could also see price increases.