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KDP or TGT or UL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. Target Corporation (TGT) vs. Unilever PLC (UL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KDP shares have traded around $26, supported by strong Q4 2025 earnings beats, JDE Peet's acquisition progress, and projected 2026 revenue growth of over 5%.
- TGT has surged over 20% year-to-date to near $119, driven by Q4 earnings outperformance, price cuts on thousands of items, and improving sales trends under new leadership.
- UL maintains stability around $60 with a 3.7% dividend yield, reflecting its global consumer goods scale amid mixed recent sentiment in personal care and nutrition segments.
- Consumer staples exposure links the trio, but TGT shows strongest recent momentum while KDP offers attractive forward valuation at a P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) under 12x.
- All three exhibit low betas below 0.4, providing defensive positioning in volatile markets with yields ranging from 3-4%.
- Relative performance favors TGT short-term, but KDP's catalysts position it for catch-up gains.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines KDP, TGT, and UL—key players in beverages, retail, and consumer goods. These consumer staples names appeal to traders seeking relative performance stability amid market swings and investors eyeing dividends and growth catalysts. Recent market activity highlights contrasts in momentum, with retail rebounding strongly while beverages leverage acquisitions and staples emphasize global scale. This analysis aids in understanding sector dynamics, valuation sensitivity, and positioning for current conditions.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
KDP, or Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., leads North American beverages with over 125 brands spanning soft drinks, coffee, teas, and waters, generating $15 billion+ in annual revenue through powerful distribution. In recent weeks, shares have stabilized near $26 after Q4 2025 results showed 10.5% sales growth to $4.5 billion and EPS (earnings per share) of $0.60, beating estimates. The JDE Peet's acquisition advanced with 96% shares tendered, set for settlement soon, boosting international exposure. Sentiment reflects optimism on U.S. refreshment beverages momentum, innovation like GHOST energy, and 2026 guidance for low-double-digit EPS growth, despite YTD declines. Analyst targets average above $35, signaling undervaluation.
TGT Overview and Recent Performance
TGT, Target Corporation, operates nearly 2,000 U.S. stores offering apparel, groceries, electronics, and essentials, with $107 billion in 2024 sales and 440,000 employees. Recent market activity propelled shares above $118, up 23% YTD, following Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.44 beating expectations despite slight revenue miss at $30.45 billion. New CEO Michael Fiddelke slashed prices on 3,000+ items to counter inflation and revive traffic, with digital sales and memberships growing over 20%. Sentiment shifts positively on back-half sales acceleration and remodeling investments, contrasting prior slumps. Forward estimates support growth resumption.
UL Overview and Recent Performance
UL, Unilever PLC, is a global fast-moving consumer goods giant with 400 brands in beauty, personal care, home care, and nutrition, reaching 190 countries and €50.5 billion in 2025 turnover. Shares hover near $60, supported by a 3.7% yield, amid steady demand for icons like Dove and Hellmann's. Recent weeks show resilience in core segments despite broader pressures, with Power Brands driving 4.3% underlying growth. Sentiment ties to portfolio focus, innovation, and sustainability, though valuation reflects slower momentum versus peers. Global footprint aids stability in uncertain environments.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
KDP focuses on beverages with North American dominance and expansion via JDE Peet's, contrasting TGT's U.S. retail model emphasizing groceries and essentials amid price sensitivity. UL offers broadest global diversification across FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods). Growth drivers include KDP innovation, TGT traffic recovery, and UL Power Brands. Recent momentum leads TGT (20%+ YTD), with KDP lagging but undervalued (forward P/E ~12x vs. peers 17-22x). Risks: TGT consumer spending, KDP coffee margins, UL emerging market volatility. All share low beta (<0.4), 3-4% yields, but TGT suits cyclical upturns, KDP value plays.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors KDP due to trend consistency from earnings beats, JDE Peet's catalysts, and superior relative upside (20-40% to targets) at discounted valuation versus TGT's momentum peak and UL's stability. Probabilistic edge stems from projected EPS growth and staples rotation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KDP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTGT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and UL’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TGT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KDP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TGT’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and UL’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KDP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TGT’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 3 bearish.
- UL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) experienced а -0.15% price change this week, while TGT (@Discount Stores) price change was +4.88% , and UL (@Household/Personal Care) price fluctuated +0.33% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -0.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2073.90%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +0.96%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.44%.
Reported Earning Dates
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
TGT is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-0.77% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
@Discount Stores (+2.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Household/Personal Care (+0.96% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
| KDP | TGT | UL | |
| Capitalization | 36B | 57.9B | 125B |
| EBITDA | 4.19B | 8.35B | 11.3B |
| Gain YTD | -3.656 | 32.113 | -9.822 |
| P/E Ratio | 17.34 | 15.72 | 19.14 |
| Revenue | 16.6B | 105B | 59.8B |
| Total Cash | N/A | 5.49B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 17.6B | 20.3B | N/A |
KDP | TGT | UL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 16 | 51 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 67 Overvalued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | 81 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 75 | 38 | 97 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 17 | 81 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 24 | 83 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 23 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KDP's Valuation (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as UL (39) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TGT (67) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that KDP's stock grew similarly to UL’s and somewhat faster than TGT’s over the last 12 months.
UL's Profit vs Risk Rating (81) in the Household Or Personal Care industry is in the same range as KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as TGT (100) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that UL's stock grew similarly to KDP’s and similarly to TGT’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's SMR Rating (38) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (75) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for UL (97) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that TGT's stock grew somewhat faster than KDP’s and somewhat faster than UL’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's Price Growth Rating (17) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (62) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for UL (81) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that TGT's stock grew somewhat faster than KDP’s and somewhat faster than UL’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UL (83) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (95) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that TGT's stock grew somewhat faster than UL’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| KDP | TGT | UL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | N/A | 2 days ago 34% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 37% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 38% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 40% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 67% | 10 days ago 42% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 46% | 6 days ago 64% | 5 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 71% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 35% | N/A | 2 days ago 40% |
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KDP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KDP has been loosely correlated with PEP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 48% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KDP jumps, then PEP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KDP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 100% | +1.88% | ||
| PEP - KDP | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.45% | ||
| KO - KDP | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.74% | ||
| FIZZ - KDP | 45% Loosely correlated | +1.54% | ||
| MNST - KDP | 31% Poorly correlated | +1.80% | ||
| CCEP - KDP | 26% Poorly correlated | +2.10% | ||
More | ||||
UL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UL has been loosely correlated with PG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UL jumps, then PG could also see price increases.