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LEN or PHM or TOL
Lennar Corporation (LEN) vs PulteGroup (PHM) vs Toll Brothers (TOL) Earnings Recap: Recent Homebuilder Results in Focus
Key Takeaways
- LEN reported Q1 2026 EPS of $0.88 (adjusted), missing estimates of $0.96, with revenue of $6.62B, down 13% YoY on fewer deliveries.
- PHM Q4 2025 GAAP EPS $2.56, adjusted $2.88 beating $2.81, revenue $4.61B beating estimates amid strong orders.
- TOL Q1 FY2026 EPS $2.19, up 25% YoY, beating $2.05, home sales revenue $1.85B flat YoY with higher ASP.
- All three major homebuilders face affordability pressures but show resilience in luxury/upper segments; LEN most recent with soft miss.
Earnings Context and Competitive Landscape
Homebuilders like LEN, PHM, and TOL compete in a cyclical market driven by housing shortages, rates, and affordability. Earnings timing provides snapshots of demand, margins, and inventory. LEN (volume leader), PHM (diverse brands), and TOL (luxury focus) overlap in suburban/single-family but differentiate by price point. Recent reports highlight margin compression from incentives yet backlog support.
Lennar Corporation Focus
LEN released Q1 fiscal 2026 (ended Feb 28, 2026) results on March 12, 2026. Net earnings attributable to Lennar were $229M or $0.93 diluted EPS; adjusted EPS $0.88 vs. consensus $0.96. Revenues totaled $6.62B, down from $7.63B YoY, with 16,863 home deliveries. Gross margin on home sales 15.2%. New orders 18,515 homes. Backlog 15,588 homes valued at $6.0B. Q2 guidance: 20,000-21,000 deliveries, gross margin 15.5%-16.0%. Share repurchases: 2M shares for $237M.
PulteGroup Context
PHM reported Q4 2025 (ended Dec 31, 2025) on Jan 29, 2026. GAAP EPS $2.56; adjusted $2.88 beating $2.81 consensus. Revenues $4.61B beat estimates. Net new orders up 4% to 6,428 homes valued at $3.5B. Net income $502M. Full-year 2025: 29,572 closings, $17B revenue. Q1 2026 earnings scheduled for Apr 23, 2026. Strong positioning with share repurchases of 10.6M shares for $1.2B in 2025.
Toll Brothers Context
TOL announced Q1 FY2026 (ended Jan 31, 2026) on Feb 17, 2026. EPS $2.19 up 25% YoY, beating $2.05. Home sales revenues $1.85B flat YoY; 1,899 deliveries at $977K ASP. Net contracts 2,303 for $2.4B. Adjusted gross margin 26.5%; SG&A 13.9% of revenues. Pre-tax income $273.6M. Next earnings estimated May 2026. Luxury focus aids resilience with higher ASPs.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
LEN leads scale but Q1 miss signals volume weakness (EPS down ~59% YoY adjusted). PHM excels in beats (Q4 adjusted EPS +2.5%), growth (orders +4%), lower risk via diversification. TOL shines in EPS growth (+25%), margins (26.5%), luxury sentiment. Growth: TOL strongest recent; risks higher for LEN on affordability. Investor sentiment favors PHM/TOL post-earnings stability.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI favors PHM with 65% probability over the next quarter due to consistent beats, robust orders, and share repurchases signaling confidence amid sector headwinds. TOL close second (55%) on luxury strength; LEN lags post-miss.
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Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LEN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePHM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and TOL’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- LEN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LEN’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TOL’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LEN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
LEN (@Homebuilding) experienced а +4.29% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +5.15% , and TOL (@Homebuilding) price fluctuated +4.68% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +4.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.72%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.91%.
Reported Earning Dates
LEN is expected to report earnings on Jun 22, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on May 26, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+4.11% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| LEN | PHM | TOL | |
| Capitalization | 22.8B | 24.2B | 13.9B |
| EBITDA | 2.41B | 3.02B | 1.8B |
| Gain YTD | -9.335 | 8.136 | 8.877 |
| P/E Ratio | 13.35 | 11.38 | 10.53 |
| Revenue | 33.2B | 17.3B | 11.3B |
| Total Cash | 2.39B | N/A | 1.2B |
| Total Debt | 5.26B | 2.3B | 2.85B |
LEN | PHM | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 14 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 87 Overvalued | 77 Overvalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 91 | 37 | 41 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 76 | 48 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 55 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 15 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (76) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (77) and is in the same range as LEN (87). This means that TOL's stock grew similarly to PHM’s and similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (41) and is somewhat better than the same rating for LEN (91). This means that PHM's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and somewhat faster than LEN’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (48) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (50) and is in the same range as LEN (76). This means that PHM's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (55) and is in the same range as LEN (64). This means that TOL's stock grew similarly to PHM’s and similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (16) and is in the same range as TOL (19). This means that PHM's stock grew similarly to LEN’s and similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| LEN | PHM | TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 5 days ago 70% | 5 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 62% |
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LEN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LEN has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LEN jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.