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LMT or RTX or TDG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) vs. RTX Corporation (RTX) vs. TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LMT leads YTD performance at over 33% with low beta (0.20) and steady defense contracts, including recent $111.5M naval award, supported by a massive backlog.
- RTX shows robust 12.6% YTD gains and 61% one-year return, bolstered by missile production expansions and $2B+ contracts amid geopolitical demand.
- TDG lags YTD at 6.6% with higher beta (0.92), facing recent downgrades and margin pressures from acquisitions, though Q1 revenue rose 14%.
- All three benefit from aerospace and defense tailwinds, but LMT and RTX exhibit stronger momentum and stability versus TDG's commercial exposure.
- Valuations reflect growth: LMT at 21.5x forward P/E offers relative value; RTX and TDG trade higher at 30x+ amid expansion risks.
- Sector sentiment favors primes like LMT and RTX for consistent government-driven revenue over TDG's aftermarket focus.
Introduction
This comparison examines LMT, RTX, and TDG, leading players in the aerospace and defense sector amid sustained U.S. military spending and geopolitical tensions. These stocks represent prime contractors and component suppliers, offering exposure to aircraft, missiles, engines, and proprietary parts. Investors tracking relative performance and traders eyeing momentum in defense names will benefit from insights into recent contract wins, production ramps, and valuation trade-offs in the current market environment.
LMT Overview and Recent Performance
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is a global leader in aerospace and defense, operating through aeronautics, missiles, rotary systems, and space segments, primarily serving U.S. government contracts. Shares trade around $643 with a $149B market cap, low beta of 0.20, and 2.09% dividend yield. Recent market activity reflects over 33% YTD gains and 42% one-year returns, outperforming benchmarks. Influences include a $111.5M naval contract, expanded Japan ties, and a record $194B backlog from THAAD and F-35 programs. Sentiment supports stability despite F-35 software delays and donation scrutiny, with FY2026 guidance for $77.5-80B sales and analyst targets near $658.
RTX Overview and Recent Performance
RTX Corporation (RTX), formed from Raytheon and United Technologies, provides systems via Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney engines, and Raytheon defense. Shares hover at $206 with a $277B market cap, beta of 0.41, and 1.33% yield. Performance includes 12.6% YTD and 61% annual gains, driven by Q4 sales up 12% to $24.2B and adjusted EPS growth. Key developments feature a $2.01B missile contract, $115M Alabama facility expansion boosting capacity 50%, and interceptor demand. Positive analyst views project 11% upside to $217, though recent dips versus broader market temper short-term momentum.
TDG Overview and Recent Performance
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) designs and supplies highly engineered aircraft components across power, airframe, and non-aviation segments for commercial and military use. Shares at $1,242 with $70B market cap and beta 0.92 show 6.6% YTD but flat one-year returns. Q1 FY2026 revenue climbed 14% to $2.29B, EBITDA up 13%, with raised guidance, yet shares declined amid acquisition integration and margin concerns. Recent downgrades from KeyBanc and Baird cite softer outlook, though Zacks upgraded to Buy and targets average $1,594, highlighting aftermarket strength despite volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
LMT, RTX, and TDG share aerospace/defense exposure but diverge in models: primes LMT and RTX rely on government contracts and systems integration, while TDG focuses on proprietary components with aftermarket pricing power. Growth drivers favor RTX's engine/missile ramps and LMT's backlog versus TDG's 14% revenue pop tempered by acquisitions. Recent momentum tilts to LMT (33% YTD) over RTX (13%) and TDG (7%), with lower betas (0.20-0.41 vs. 0.92) reducing risk. Valuation sensitivity shows LMT cheapest at 21.5x forward P/E, RTX/ TDG pricier at 30x amid leverage concerns. Sentiment boosts primes on geopolitics; TDG risks commercial slowdowns.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors LMT for superior trend consistency, low volatility, and backlog stability amid defense demand. Observable catalysts like naval contracts and 33% YTD outperformance position it probabilistically ahead of RTX's expansions and TDG's earnings, though relative shifts could favor others on contract momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LMT’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileRTX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and TDG’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- LMT’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- RTX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TDG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LMT’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RTX’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and TDG’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LMT’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
- RTX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TDG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
LMT (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -1.46% price change this week, while RTX (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +2.73% , and TDG (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated +3.44% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.47%.
Reported Earning Dates
LMT is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
RTX is expected to report earnings on Apr 21, 2026.
TDG is expected to report earnings on May 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.88% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| LMT | RTX | TDG | |
| Capitalization | 141B | 271B | 68.2B |
| EBITDA | 8.73B | 14.9B | 4.63B |
| Gain YTD | 27.557 | 10.267 | -9.224 |
| P/E Ratio | 28.56 | 40.64 | 38.84 |
| Revenue | 75B | 88.6B | 9.11B |
| Total Cash | 4.12B | 7.44B | 2.53B |
| Total Debt | 21.7B | 39.5B | 30B |
LMT | RTX | TDG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 72 | 56 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | 43 Fair valued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 6 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 14 | 66 | 16 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 44 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 46 | 77 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 15 | 50 | 33 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LMT's Valuation (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as RTX (43) in the null industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TDG (71) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that LMT's stock grew similarly to RTX’s and somewhat faster than TDG’s over the last 12 months.
RTX's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the null industry is in the same range as TDG (28) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as LMT (31) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that RTX's stock grew similarly to TDG’s and similarly to LMT’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's SMR Rating (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as TDG (16) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for RTX (66) in the null industry. This means that LMT's stock grew similarly to TDG’s and somewhat faster than RTX’s over the last 12 months.
RTX's Price Growth Rating (44) in the null industry is in the same range as LMT (46) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as TDG (61) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that RTX's stock grew similarly to LMT’s and similarly to TDG’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's P/E Growth Rating (29) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as RTX (46) in the null industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TDG (77) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that LMT's stock grew similarly to RTX’s and somewhat faster than TDG’s over the last 12 months.
| LMT | RTX | TDG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 40% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 54% | 6 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 42% | 13 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 46% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 32% | 1 day ago 64% |
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LMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LMT has been loosely correlated with LHX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 50% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LMT jumps, then LHX could also see price increases.
RTX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RTX has been loosely correlated with NOC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if RTX jumps, then NOC could also see price increases.
TDG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TDG has been loosely correlated with HEI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TDG jumps, then HEI could also see price increases.