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MCHP or NXPI or TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Microchip Technology (MCHP) vs. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MCHP has shown resilience with a 25-28% gain over the past year despite recent monthly declines of around 14-19%, driven by inventory challenges and restructuring efforts.
- NXPI experienced a 10% monthly drop amid mixed Q4 results and softer Q1 guidance, though longer-term returns remain positive at about 5% annually.
- TSM leads with over 100% one-year gains and recent 30% revenue growth from AI demand, reporting strong February sales up 22%.
- All three operate in semiconductors but differ in focus: MCHP on microcontrollers, NXPI on automotive/IoT, and TSM as a pure-play foundry.
- Recent market volatility, including geopolitical tensions, has pressured shares, but AI-related catalysts favor TSM's positioning.
- Relative performance highlights TSM's momentum, while MCHP and NXPI navigate cyclical headwinds.
Introduction
Microchip Technology (MCHP), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) represent key players in the semiconductor sector, spanning microcontrollers, automotive chips, and advanced foundry services. This comparison analyzes their recent stock performance, business models, and market positioning amid AI-driven demand and cyclical pressures. Traders seeking momentum in high-performance computing or value in analog/mixed-signal segments, and investors eyeing sector rotation, will find insights into relative strengths, risks, and sentiment shifts for informed portfolio decisions.
MCHP Overview and Recent Performance
Microchip Technology (MCHP), headquartered in Chandler, Arizona, is a leading provider of smart, connected embedded control solutions, including microcontrollers, analog products, and FPGAs for industrial, automotive, consumer, and aerospace markets. In recent market activity, MCHP shares have traded around $65, reflecting a year-to-date gain of about 3% and a robust 25-28% annual return, outperforming broader indices in longer horizons. However, recent weeks saw declines of 14-19% monthly, influenced by high inventory levels at 201 days and underutilization costs, alongside restructuring like Fab 2 closure to save $25 million annually. Sentiment is supported by product expansions in cybersecurity and AI investments, with analysts noting potential undervaluation and improving growth prospects.
NXPI Overview and Recent Performance
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), based in Eindhoven, Netherlands, specializes in secure connectivity solutions for automotive, industrial/IoT, mobile, and communication infrastructure, offering microcontrollers, processors, and sensors. Shares recently hovered near $203, with a year-to-date dip and about 5% one-year return, underperforming peers amid sector volatility. Recent performance included a 10% monthly decline following mixed Q4 results—beating revenue/EPS estimates but with softer Q1 guidance ($3.05-3.25B revenue)—and an 18% drop in communications revenue. Automotive and IoT segments grew, bolstering optimism for 12-18% earnings expansion, though GAAP profitability softened, impacting short-term sentiment.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), the world's largest dedicated foundry, produces advanced chips for high-performance computing, smartphones, IoT, and automotive from its Hsinchu base. Trading around $347, TSM boasts 15% YTD gains and over 100% one-year surge, far outpacing the sector. Recent catalysts include 30% year-over-year revenue growth for January-February, with February up 22%, fueled by AI infrastructure demand from clients like Nvidia and Apple. Despite minor pullbacks from geopolitical tensions, strong sales momentum and advanced node leadership (e.g., 3nm/2nm) drive positive sentiment and elevated valuations.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MCHP, NXPI, and TSM share semiconductor exposure but contrast in models: MCHP's fabless embedded focus yields diversified revenue (56% MCUs) versus NXPI's IDM strength in automotive (level 2-5 autonomy) and IoT. TSM, as a pure foundry, benefits from fabless shifts, serving broad clients with advanced nodes. Growth drivers favor TSM's AI tailwinds over peers' cyclical analog/auto recovery. Recent momentum tilts to TSM (100%+ yearly), while MCHP (25%) edges NXPI (5%). Risks include TSM's geopolitics, MCHP/ NXPI's inventory, and all face valuation sensitivity amid trade tensions. Sentiment leans bullish on TSM's catalysts versus peers' stabilization.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TSM due to superior trend consistency, AI revenue catalysts (30% growth), and relative strength in recent market activity, positioning it ahead in high-performance computing. MCHP and NXPI offer stability in embedded/automotive but lag momentum amid cyclical pressures. Probabilistic edge to TSM for near-term outperformance based on observable factors.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MCHP’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileNXPI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TSM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- MCHP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NXPI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MCHP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NXPI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TSM’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MCHP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NXPI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MCHP (@Semiconductors) experienced а +10.06% price change this week, while NXPI (@Semiconductors) price change was +5.71% , and TSM (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated -0.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +10.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +24.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
MCHP is expected to report earnings on May 11, 2026.
NXPI is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+10.10% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| MCHP | NXPI | TSM | |
| Capitalization | 43.5B | 55.9B | 1.67T |
| EBITDA | 877M | 3.96B | 2.74T |
| Gain YTD | 26.904 | 2.501 | 21.192 |
| P/E Ratio | 86.21 | 27.84 | 31.34 |
| Revenue | 4.37B | 12.3B | 3.81T |
| Total Cash | 251M | 2.91B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 5.41B | 12.2B | N/A |
MCHP | NXPI | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | 12 Undervalued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 88 | 82 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 43 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 50 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | 23 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NXPI's Valuation (12) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MCHP (14) and is somewhat better than the same rating for TSM (46). This means that NXPI's stock grew similarly to MCHP’s and somewhat faster than TSM’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Semiconductors industry is significantly better than the same rating for NXPI (82) and is significantly better than the same rating for MCHP (88). This means that TSM's stock grew significantly faster than NXPI’s and significantly faster than MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's SMR Rating (26) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NXPI (43) and is somewhat better than the same rating for MCHP (91). This means that TSM's stock grew similarly to NXPI’s and somewhat faster than MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
MCHP's Price Growth Rating (7) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (39) and is somewhat better than the same rating for NXPI (50). This means that MCHP's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and somewhat faster than NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
MCHP's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (20) and is in the same range as NXPI (23). This means that MCHP's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
| MCHP | NXPI | TSM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 63% | 13 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 73% | 19 days ago 68% | 5 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 67% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| RSMR | 22.99 | 0.24 | +1.03% |
| FT Vest U.S. Equity Equal Weight Buffer ETF - March | |||
| HZEN | 0.73 | N/A | +0.01% |
| Grayscale Horizen Trust (ZEN) | |||
| VCLT | 75.75 | N/A | N/A |
| Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bd ETF | |||
| VGM | 10.29 | -0.02 | -0.19% |
| Invesco Trust Investment Grade Municipals | |||
| PGJ | 27.80 | -0.07 | -0.25% |
| Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF | |||
MCHP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MCHP has been closely correlated with MCHPP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 96% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MCHP jumps, then MCHPP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MCHP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHP | 100% | +2.07% | ||
| MCHPP - MCHP | 96% Closely correlated | +1.76% | ||
| NXPI - MCHP | 85% Closely correlated | +2.46% | ||
| ON - MCHP | 80% Closely correlated | +3.07% | ||
| TXN - MCHP | 77% Closely correlated | +1.69% | ||
| KLIC - MCHP | 75% Closely correlated | +1.78% | ||
More | ||||
NXPI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NXPI has been closely correlated with MCHPP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NXPI jumps, then MCHPP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NXPI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXPI | 100% | +2.46% | ||
| MCHPP - NXPI | 82% Closely correlated | +1.76% | ||
| ON - NXPI | 79% Closely correlated | +3.07% | ||
| ENTG - NXPI | 78% Closely correlated | +1.96% | ||
| MCHP - NXPI | 78% Closely correlated | +2.07% | ||
| LRCX - NXPI | 77% Closely correlated | -1.66% | ||
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TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | -1.15% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +1.14% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | -1.66% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| MPWR - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +1.53% | ||
| NVDA - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
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