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MO or PEP or WMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Altria Group (MO) vs. PepsiCo (PEP) vs. Walmart (WMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MO offers the highest dividend yield at around 6.4%, with YTD gains of 15.4% driven by strong oral nicotine pouch growth and analyst price target upgrades.
- PEP shows resilience in beverages and snacks, with YTD returns near 11-12%, but faces recent volume pressures amid product innovation launches.
- WMT leads in market cap over $980B and omnichannel growth, posting YTD gains of 11.1%, though recent insider sales and regulatory settlements tempered momentum.
- All three exhibit defensive qualities with low betas (0.4-0.7), but MO's P/E of 16x contrasts PEP (27x) and WMT (45x), highlighting value trade-offs.
- Recent weeks saw MO up ~2-4%, PEP down ~4%, and WMT flat to down amid broader market volatility.
- Consumer staples positioning favors stability, with WMT's e-commerce profitability and MO's smoke-free transition as key catalysts.
Introduction
This comparison examines MO (Altria Group), PEP (PepsiCo), and WMT (Walmart), three consumer staples giants offering stability amid market volatility. As defensive plays with low betas and consistent dividends, they appeal to income-focused investors and traders seeking relative performance in uncertain environments. Recent market activity highlights contrasts in momentum, with tobacco's yield appeal, beverages/snacks resilience, and retail's omnichannel scale. This analysis draws on price trends, sector dynamics, and valuation to inform stock comparison decisions for portfolios balancing growth and protection.
MO Overview and Recent Performance
Altria Group (MO), the leading U.S. tobacco producer, operates through subsidiaries like Philip Morris USA for cigarettes, U.S. Smokeless Tobacco for moist products, Helix for oral nicotine pouches (on!), and NJOY for e-vapor. Its business model emphasizes transitioning adult smokers to smoke-free alternatives while leveraging pricing power in combustibles amid declining volumes.
In recent market activity, MO shares traded around $66.50, reflecting YTD gains of 15.4% and 1-month returns near 2%, outperforming the S&P 500. A 19% three-month surge and Barclays' price target hike to $63 fueled sentiment, alongside oral nicotine growth buffering cigarette declines. High dividend yield (~6.4%) and low beta (0.43) underscore defensive appeal, though regulatory hurdles in e-vapor persist. Stable earnings outlook for 2026 supports positioning.
PEP Overview and Recent Performance
PepsiCo (PEP) is a global leader in beverages and convenient foods, with brands like Pepsi, Gatorade, Lay's, and Doritos generating ~$92B in annual revenue across North America, Europe, and emerging markets. Its model integrates manufacturing, bottling, and distribution, focusing on innovation in health-oriented products and supply chain efficiency.
Recent weeks saw PEP around $159, with YTD returns of ~11-12% but 1-month dips of ~4% due to volume softness. Launches like high-protein Doritos and lower-sugar Gatorade aim to counter competition, while international resilience offsets North America challenges. Dividend yield (~3.6%) and beta (0.38) provide stability, with 2026 organic growth guidance of 2-4% bolstering sentiment amid margin pressures.
WMT Overview and Recent Performance
Walmart (WMT), the world's largest retailer, operates supercenters, Sam's Club, and e-commerce platforms, emphasizing everyday low prices and omnichannel integration. Its model spans U.S., international wholesale/retail, with ~$680B+ revenue from groceries, merchandise, and high-margin ads/delivery.
In recent trading, WMT hovered near $124, delivering YTD gains of 11.1% but flat to down over the past month amid $100M Spark Driver settlement and insider sales. E-commerce profitability (20%+ U.S. penetration) and Q4 revenue beats drove earlier highs, with beta (0.66) and yield (0.8%) reflecting scale advantages. Cautious FY2027 outlook tempers enthusiasm, yet tech investments sustain momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MO, PEP, and WMT anchor consumer staples, but diverge in models: MO's oligopolistic tobacco pricing yields 59% margins despite volume erosion, versus PEP's volume-driven snacks/beverages (54% gross margins) and WMT's low-margin scale (25% gross, 4% op). Growth drivers include MO's smoke-free shift, PEP's international/health innovations, and WMT's e-commerce/ads.
Recent momentum favors MO (15% YTD), with PEP/WMT at ~11%; risks span regulation (MO), competition (PEP), and consumer spending (WMT). Valuations show MO cheapest (16x P/E, 6.4% yield, $112B cap), PEP balanced (27x, 3.6%, $218B), WMT premium (45x, 0.8%, $987B). Sentiment tilts to yield seekers for MO, growth for WMT.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors MO for its trend consistency in recent weeks, superior yield, undervalued P/E relative to peers, and smoke-free catalysts amid volatility. While WMT offers scale/stability and PEP diversification, MO's positioning suggests higher probability of relative outperformance in defensive rotations.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MO’s FA Score shows that 5 FA rating(s) are green whilePEP’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and WMT’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- MO’s FA Score: 5 green, 0 red.
- PEP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MO’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PEP’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and WMT’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- PEP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MO (@Tobacco) experienced а +2.59% price change this week, while PEP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was +0.31% , and WMT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +2.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was +1.70%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.58%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.40%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was +2.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +164976.25%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +0.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.43%.
Reported Earning Dates
MO is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
PEP is expected to report earnings on Apr 16, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Tobacco (+1.70% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (+2.02% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
@Discount Stores (+0.71% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| MO | PEP | WMT | |
| Capitalization | 113B | 215B | 1.03T |
| EBITDA | 10.8B | 15.5B | 46.5B |
| Gain YTD | 18.957 | 10.714 | 16.143 |
| P/E Ratio | 16.37 | 26.25 | 47.30 |
| Revenue | 20.1B | 93.9B | 713B |
| Total Cash | N/A | 9.53B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 25.7B | 49.9B | 68.4B |
MO | PEP | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 57 | 22 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 10 Undervalued | 26 Undervalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 55 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | 22 | 99 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 52 | 20 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 35 | 33 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MO's Valuation (10) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PEP (26) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for WMT (92) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to PEP’s and significantly faster than WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as MO (9) in the Tobacco industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PEP (55) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that WMT's stock grew similarly to MO’s and somewhat faster than PEP’s over the last 12 months.
MO's SMR Rating (9) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PEP (22) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for WMT (99) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to PEP’s and significantly faster than WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Price Growth Rating (20) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as MO (29) in the Tobacco industry, and is in the same range as PEP (52) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that WMT's stock grew similarly to MO’s and similarly to PEP’s over the last 12 months.
MO's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as WMT (33) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is in the same range as PEP (35) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to WMT’s and similarly to PEP’s over the last 12 months.
| MO | PEP | WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 62% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 28% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 37% | 3 days ago 43% | 21 days ago 33% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 33% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 20% | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 30% |
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WMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WMT has been loosely correlated with COST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WMT jumps, then COST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WMT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 100% | +1.47% | ||
| COST - WMT | 66% Loosely correlated | +0.17% | ||
| PSMT - WMT | 39% Loosely correlated | +2.94% | ||
| BJ - WMT | 37% Loosely correlated | -1.58% | ||
| TGT - WMT | 30% Poorly correlated | +0.74% | ||
| OLLI - WMT | 27% Poorly correlated | -5.05% | ||
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