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MO or TGT or WMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Altria Group (MO) vs. Target Corporation (TGT) vs. Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MO offers the highest dividend yield at approximately 6.6%, appealing to income-focused investors amid recent share price weakness.
- TGT leads YTD performance with around 17% gains, supported by price cuts on thousands of items to boost demand.
- WMT demonstrates superior long-term stability with 40% one-year returns and massive scale, though at a premium P/E of over 43.
- All three stocks have faced short-term pressure, with recent weekly declines of 2-5%, reflecting broader retail and consumer staples volatility.
- MO trades at the lowest P/E around 15-16, suggesting relative value in tobacco amid mixed analyst views.
- Retail giants TGT and WMT highlight contrasting growth paths, with WMT capturing market share.
Introduction
This stock comparison evaluates MO (Altria Group), TGT (Target Corporation), and WMT (Walmart Inc.) in the current market environment. These companies span consumer staples and retail sectors, offering insights into defensive tobacco plays versus cyclical discount and big-box retailing. Traders seeking relative performance and momentum may favor retail names amid consumer spending shifts, while long-term investors value MO's high yield. Recent market activity, including price adjustments and analyst revisions, underscores their positioning for volatility in economic uncertainty. This analysis aids decisions on stock comparison, relative performance, and market positioning.
MO Overview and Recent Performance
Altria Group (MO), a leading U.S. tobacco producer with brands like Marlboro, dominates cigarettes and smokeless products. In recent market activity, shares traded around $64, down over 3% monthly and 5% weekly, underperforming broader indices amid share price weakness. Mixed analyst sentiments stem from legal challenges, antitrust concerns tied to Juul, and valuation debates, though some see undervaluation. YTD gains near 12% reflect resilience, bolstered by a forward dividend yield over 6.5% and quarterly payout of $1.06 (ex-date March 25). EPS estimates for the year project modest growth to $5.61, influencing sentiment in a sector facing volume pressures but stable cash flows.
TGT Overview and Recent Performance
Target Corporation (TGT) operates general merchandise stores emphasizing style and convenience. Shares hovered near $113, with YTD returns around 17% outpacing the S&P 500, though recent weeks saw 2-3% declines. New CEO Michael Fiddelke slashed prices on over 3,000 items in apparel, home goods, and essentials to counter inflation and revive demand after sales declines. This supports comparable sales recovery, with EPS forecasts at $7.99 for the year. P/E around 14 signals value, but margin pressures and softer transactions temper momentum in recent trading.
WMT Overview and Recent Performance
Walmart Inc. (WMT), the world's largest retailer, leverages scale across stores, e-commerce, and wholesale. Trading near $119, shares posted 7% YTD and 40% annual gains, though recent weeks dipped 3-6% with high volume. Customer backlash over AI-driven pricing drew attention, alongside expansions via acquisitions. Strong fundamentals include projected 9.5% EPS growth to $2.89, P/E over 43, and market cap nearing $950 billion. Dividend yield around 0.8% supports total returns, with stability from diverse revenue streams amid retail competition.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MO, TGT, and WMT contrast sharply in business models: MO's defensive tobacco yields steady cash for 6.6% dividends but faces regulatory risks, unlike retail peers. TGT and WMT drive growth via discount pricing and e-commerce, with WMT's scale yielding superior revenue ($713B vs. TGT's $105B). Recent momentum favors TGT YTD, but WMT excels longer-term. Valuation sensitivity highlights MO and TGT P/Es under 16 vs. WMT's 43, trading value for growth. Sector exposure differs: staples stability for MO, cyclical retail for others, with sentiment buoyed by TGT promotions and WMT tech amid economic pressures.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI leans toward WMT based on trend consistency, market share gains, and catalysts like e-commerce expansion. Its relative positioning in retail, with 40% annual returns and stable EPS growth, edges out TGT's YTD lead and MO's yield amid tobacco headwinds. Probabilistic factors suggest higher upside potential for WMT in current conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MO’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileTGT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and WMT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- MO’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- TGT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TGT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and WMT’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TGT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MO (@Tobacco) experienced а -4.76% price change this week, while TGT (@Discount Stores) price change was +4.88% , and WMT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +0.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.25%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
MO is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
TGT is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Tobacco (-1.34% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
@Discount Stores (+2.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| MO | TGT | WMT | |
| Capitalization | 107B | 57.9B | 1.02T |
| EBITDA | 10.8B | 8.35B | 46.5B |
| Gain YTD | 13.155 | 32.113 | 14.677 |
| P/E Ratio | 15.58 | 15.72 | 46.70 |
| Revenue | 20.1B | 105B | 713B |
| Total Cash | N/A | 5.49B | 10.7B |
| Total Debt | 25.7B | 20.3B | 67.1B |
MO | TGT | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 23 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 8 Undervalued | 67 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 100 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | 38 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 12 | 24 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 24 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 23 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MO's Valuation (8) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TGT (67) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for WMT (92) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MO's stock grew somewhat faster than TGT’s and significantly faster than WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as MO (14) in the Tobacco industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for TGT (100) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that WMT's stock grew similarly to MO’s and significantly faster than TGT’s over the last 12 months.
MO's SMR Rating (9) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as TGT (38) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is in the same range as WMT (40) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to TGT’s and similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's Price Growth Rating (12) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (24) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is in the same range as MO (34) in the Tobacco industry. This means that TGT's stock grew similarly to WMT’s and similarly to MO’s over the last 12 months.
MO's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as TGT (24) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is in the same range as WMT (42) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to TGT’s and similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
| MO | TGT | WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 29% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 35% | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 31% | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 37% | 7 days ago 64% | 7 days ago 34% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 23% | 5 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 25% |
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|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| PPA | 176.59 | 1.85 | +1.06% |
| Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF | |||
| DECT | 37.84 | 0.33 | +0.88% |
| AllianzIM US Equity Buffer10 Dec ETF | |||
| AMUN | 26.06 | 0.01 | +0.04% |
| abrdn Ultra Short Municipal Inc Act ETF | |||
| DIAX | 14.10 | N/A | N/A |
| Nuveen DOW 30Sm Dynamic Overwrite Fund | |||
| BNDD | 97.32 | -1.00 | -1.02% |
| Quadratic Deflation ETF | |||
WMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WMT has been loosely correlated with COST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WMT jumps, then COST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WMT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 100% | +2.15% | ||
| COST - WMT | 66% Loosely correlated | +1.28% | ||
| BJ - WMT | 38% Loosely correlated | -0.18% | ||
| PSMT - WMT | 36% Loosely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| TGT - WMT | 30% Poorly correlated | +3.17% | ||
| TBBB - WMT | 21% Poorly correlated | +2.19% | ||
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