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MPWR or NXPI or TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) vs. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MPWR leads with robust Q4 revenue growth of 20.8% YoY to $751M and full-year 2025 revenue up 26.4%, driven by AI and data center demand, though trading at a premium P/E around 80x.
- NXPI reported Q4 revenue up 7.2% to $3.34B with EPS beat, but recent stock pullback of ~20% over four weeks amid sector pressures, offering relative value at ~24x P/E.
- TSM benefits from dominant foundry position in AI chips, with strong revenue growth and YTD gains around 13-26%, supported by advanced node demand despite geopolitical risks.
- All three show semiconductor sector resilience, but MPWR and TSM exhibit stronger recent momentum tied to AI, while NXPI lags on automotive/industrial exposure.
- Market caps: TSM ~$1.76T, MPWR ~$52B, NXPI ~$48B; valuations reflect growth prospects with TSM at ~33x P/E.
Introduction
Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) represent key players in the semiconductor sector, spanning power management, mixed-signal solutions, and advanced foundry services. This comparison analyzes their recent performance amid AI-driven demand and sector volatility, highlighting relative strengths in growth, valuation, and market positioning. Traders seeking momentum in high-growth chips and investors eyeing value in established names will find insights into trade-offs across business models and risk profiles in today's dynamic market environment.
MPWR Overview and Recent Performance
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) designs high-performance power management semiconductors for cloud computing, automotive, industrial, and consumer applications. In recent market activity, MPWR reported record Q4 2025 revenue of $751.2 million, up 20.8% year-over-year, with full-year revenue reaching $2.79 billion, a 26.4% increase fueled by enterprise data centers and AI systems. The company raised its quarterly dividend to $2.00 per share and guided Q1 2026 revenue above consensus at $770-790 million. Stock performance has shown strength with YTD gains over 17%, though recent weeks saw pullbacks amid broader chip sector pressures, trading around $1,050 with a market cap near $52 billion and P/E around 80x. Sentiment remains positive on AI exposure and efficiency-focused solutions.
NXPI Overview and Recent Performance
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) specializes in mixed-signal semiconductors for automotive, industrial IoT, mobile, and infrastructure, holding strong positions in microcontrollers and secure connectivity. Recent quarters featured Q4 revenue of $3.34 billion, up 7.2% year-over-year, with non-GAAP EPS of $3.35 beating estimates; Q1 guidance topped consensus. However, the stock has declined about 20% over recent four weeks, entering oversold territory amid sector headwinds, with YTD returns mixed around 11-12% and trading near $191, market cap ~$48 billion, P/E ~24x. Performance reflects automotive cycle softness balanced by earnings upgrades and a $1.014 dividend, influencing cautious sentiment.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is the world's leading pure-play foundry, producing advanced chips for AI, high-performance computing, and consumer devices. Recent activity underscores AI demand, with revenue growth exceeding 30% in recent quarters and strong advanced node utilization. The stock has delivered robust YTD performance of 13-26%, trading around $340 with a massive $1.76 trillion market cap and P/E ~33x. Positive analyst outlooks cite 20% upside potential despite geopolitical factors, with high margins from 5nm-and-below processes driving sentiment amid tight advanced packaging capacity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MPWR, NXPI, and TSM operate in complementary semiconductor niches: power solutions, mixed-signal/auto, and foundry manufacturing. Growth drivers diverge—MPWR and TSM thrive on AI/data center expansion, while NXPI leans on automotive recovery. Recent momentum favors MPWR (17%+ YTD) and TSM (13-26% YTD) over NXPI's pullback. Risk factors include TSM's geopolitics, NXPI's cyclicality, and MPWR's high valuation (~80x P/E vs. NXPI 24x, TSM 33x). Sector exposure: all AI-beneficiaries, but NXPI more diversified industrially. Sentiment tilts toward AI pure-plays, trading growth at a premium against NXPI's value.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors MPWR for its consistent trend in AI power management, superior recent earnings momentum, and bot-tracked outperformance (e.g., +85% annualized in dedicated agents), positioning it strongly relative to peers amid sector rotation. TSM follows closely on foundry scale and stability, while NXPI offers value but lags on catalysts. Probabilistic edge leans toward MPWR in prevailing conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPWR’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileNXPI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TSM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- MPWR’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NXPI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPWR’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NXPI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TSM’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPWR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NXPI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MPWR (@Semiconductors) experienced а +19.29% price change this week, while NXPI (@Semiconductors) price change was +5.72% , and TSM (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +7.80% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +5.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPWR is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
NXPI is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Apr 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+5.71% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| MPWR | NXPI | TSM | |
| Capitalization | 65.5B | 52B | 1.59T |
| EBITDA | 781M | 3.96B | 2.74T |
| Gain YTD | 47.500 | -4.756 | 20.944 |
| P/E Ratio | 103.75 | 25.87 | 35.22 |
| Revenue | 2.79B | 12.3B | 3.81T |
| Total Cash | 581M | 2.91B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 15.1M | 12.2B | N/A |
MPWR | NXPI | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 60 | 23 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 12 Undervalued | 49 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 79 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 46 | 42 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 55 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 27 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NXPI's Valuation (12) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TSM (49) and is significantly better than the same rating for MPWR (83). This means that NXPI's stock grew somewhat faster than TSM’s and significantly faster than MPWR’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MPWR (22) and is significantly better than the same rating for NXPI (79). This means that TSM's stock grew similarly to MPWR’s and significantly faster than NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's SMR Rating (26) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NXPI (42) and is in the same range as MPWR (46). This means that TSM's stock grew similarly to NXPI’s and similarly to MPWR’s over the last 12 months.
MPWR's Price Growth Rating (4) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TSM (38) and is somewhat better than the same rating for NXPI (55). This means that MPWR's stock grew somewhat faster than TSM’s and somewhat faster than NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
MPWR's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (20) and is in the same range as NXPI (27). This means that MPWR's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
| MPWR | NXPI | TSM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 86% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 63% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 66% | 9 days ago 68% | 22 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 59% |
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| UCC | 45.28 | 1.46 | +3.33% |
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| INDY | 44.03 | -0.33 | -0.74% |
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| CIBR | 63.08 | -2.58 | -3.93% |
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NXPI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NXPI has been closely correlated with MCHP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NXPI jumps, then MCHP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NXPI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXPI | 100% | +0.69% | ||
| MCHP - NXPI | 85% Closely correlated | +0.69% | ||
| ADI - NXPI | 84% Closely correlated | +1.49% | ||
| MCHPP - NXPI | 84% Closely correlated | +0.89% | ||
| SYNA - NXPI | 82% Closely correlated | -2.53% | ||
| ON - NXPI | 80% Closely correlated | +0.16% | ||
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