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MPWR or ON or TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) vs. ON Semiconductor (ON) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MPWR has delivered strong YTD returns of about 13% and 77% over one year, driven by AI and EV demand, though recent volatility shows short-term pullbacks.
- ON gained 6.7% in recent weeks with Q4 revenue of $1.53B, focusing on high-margin growth in automotive and industrial sensing amid positive analyst revisions.
- TSM leads with 16% YTD and nearly 100% one-year gains, fueled by 30% sales growth from AI chip demand and expansions in advanced nodes.
- All three benefit from semiconductor sector momentum, but TSM's scale and AI catalysts provide the most consistent relative performance.
- Valuations vary: MPWR at 80x P/E reflects premium growth pricing, ON at 200x appears elevated post-earnings, and TSM at 34x offers balanced exposure.
- Recent market activity highlights sector resilience amid volatility, with AI themes boosting sentiment across these stocks.
Introduction
This comparison examines MPWR, ON, and TSM, three key players in the semiconductor space powering AI, automotive, and high-performance computing. These stocks offer exposure to booming demand for advanced chips and power solutions. Traders seeking momentum in tech-driven sectors and investors eyeing long-term growth in the supply chain will find value in analyzing their relative performance, valuations, and market positioning. With the sector navigating volatility from geopolitical tensions and AI hype, understanding their contrasts aids informed decision-making in today's dynamic market.
MPWR Overview and Recent Performance
Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) designs semiconductor-based power electronics solutions for enterprise data, automotive, communications, consumer, and industrial markets. Its DC-to-DC converters and power management ICs support AI systems, cloud servers, EVs, and more. In recent market activity, MPWR has shown resilience with 13% YTD gains and 77% over the past year, outperforming broader indices amid AI demand. Q4 revenue beat expectations at $751M, up 21% YoY, with guidance surpassing forecasts. Sentiment remains positive from analysts citing strong earnings and sector tailwinds, though short-term dips reflect broader volatility. Dividend hikes to $2.00 further bolster appeal, influencing upward price momentum despite premium valuations.
ON Overview and Recent Performance
ON Semiconductor (ON), now onsemi, supplies intelligent sensing and power solutions across power, analog/mixed-signal, and intelligent sensing segments for automotive, industrial, AI data centers, and consumer applications. Recent weeks saw a 6.7% stock rise, with YTD up 8% and 36% annually, amid positive earnings revisions. Q4 revenue reached $1.53B, supporting a strategic refocus on higher-margin areas like automotive and industrial. Analyst upgrades, including Deutsche Bank's $75 target, highlight Q4 momentum despite post-earnings pullbacks. Performance reflects steady demand in end-markets, though elevated P/E signals caution amid sector pressures.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is the world's leading pure-play foundry, fabricating advanced chips for high-performance computing, smartphones, IoT, automotive, and consumer electronics. Recent activity underscores strength, with 16% YTD and 100% one-year returns, driven by AI infrastructure buildout. Sales surged 30% from sustained AI demand, alongside expansions like new mega-fabs. Despite geopolitical risks, robust guidance and analyst buys (e.g., $450 targets) sustain positive sentiment. Relative stability and scale position TSM favorably in volatile conditions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MPWR, ON, and TSM operate in complementary semiconductor niches: power management, sensing/power solutions, and foundry services. Growth drivers diverge—MPWR leverages AI/EV power efficiency, ON targets automotive/industrial sensing, and TSM powers the entire AI ecosystem via advanced nodes. Recent momentum favors TSM with superior scale (1.8T market cap vs. 50B/23B), but MPWR shows higher volatility (15% vs. peers). Risks include TSM's geopolitics, ON's cyclical end-markets, and MPWR's premium pricing. Valuation sensitivity is stark: TSM at 34x P/E balances growth/stability, MPWR 80x bets on outperformance, ON 201x post-recovery. Sentiment tilts bullish on AI exposure, with trade-offs in size versus specialization.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TSM due to its unmatched trend consistency, AI catalysts, and relative stability amid sector volatility. With superior scale, 30% sales growth, and positioned growth projections, it edges peers probabilistically for sustained outperformance, though monitoring geopolitical factors remains key.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPWR’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileON’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TSM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- MPWR’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- ON’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPWR’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ON’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and TSM’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPWR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MPWR (@Semiconductors) experienced а +8.46% price change this week, while ON (@Semiconductors) price change was +20.47% , and TSM (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated -0.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +10.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +24.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPWR is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
ON is expected to report earnings on May 04, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+10.10% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| MPWR | ON | TSM | |
| Capitalization | 73.2B | 33.7B | 1.67T |
| EBITDA | 781M | 888M | 2.74T |
| Gain YTD | 64.818 | 58.006 | 21.192 |
| P/E Ratio | 115.93 | 295.03 | 31.34 |
| Revenue | 2.79B | 6B | 3.81T |
| Total Cash | 581M | 2.55B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 15.1M | 3.01B | N/A |
MPWR | ON | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 89 Overvalued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 67 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 46 | 88 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 3 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 1 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (46) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MPWR (84) and is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (89). This means that TSM's stock grew somewhat faster than MPWR’s and somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MPWR (19) and is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (67). This means that TSM's stock grew similarly to MPWR’s and somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's SMR Rating (26) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MPWR (46) and is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (88). This means that TSM's stock grew similarly to MPWR’s and somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
MPWR's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ON (3) and is somewhat better than the same rating for TSM (39). This means that MPWR's stock grew similarly to ON’s and somewhat faster than TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ON's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MPWR (2) and is in the same range as TSM (20). This means that ON's stock grew similarly to MPWR’s and similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| MPWR | ON | TSM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 84% | 4 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 87% | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 72% | 13 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 66% | 22 days ago 77% | 5 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 67% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| JIRE | 81.40 | 1.20 | +1.50% |
| JPMorgan International Rsrch Enh Eq ETF | |||
| QB | 43.44 | N/A | N/A |
| ProShares Nasdaq-100 Dynamic Buffer ETF | |||
| SEIQ | 38.64 | -0.01 | -0.03% |
| SEI Enhanced US Large Cap Qual Fac ETF | |||
| IHD | 7.23 | -0.01 | -0.14% |
| VOYA EMERGING MARKETS HIGH Income DIVIDEND EQUITY FUND | |||
| ARKD | 20.22 | -0.05 | -0.22% |
| ARK DIET Q1 Buffer ETF | |||
MPWR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPWR has been closely correlated with KLAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPWR jumps, then KLAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MPWR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPWR | 100% | +1.53% | ||
| KLAC - MPWR | 74% Closely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| LRCX - MPWR | 73% Closely correlated | -1.66% | ||
| NXPI - MPWR | 73% Closely correlated | +2.46% | ||
| AMAT - MPWR | 70% Closely correlated | -1.34% | ||
| KLIC - MPWR | 70% Closely correlated | +1.78% | ||
More | ||||
TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | -1.15% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +1.14% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | -1.66% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| MPWR - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +1.53% | ||
| NVDA - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
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