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NEM or PAAS or RGLD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Newmont Corporation (NEM) vs. Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) vs. Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NEM leads with a $116 billion market cap, 9% YTD gain, and Q1 2026 earnings beat featuring $2.90 EPS and $7.31 billion revenue, despite a recent 10% pullback.
- PAAS offers silver exposure with a 21.9 billion market cap, record Q4 2025 revenue of $1.18 billion, and strong buy ratings targeting $72.
- RGLD, a royalty firm, shows stability with low beta (0.55) and analyst targets up to $335, though trading at a premium trailing P/E of 34.47.
- All three stocks have dipped in recent weeks amid gold price softening around $4,556 per ounce, highlighting sector sensitivity.
- NEM offers the lowest forward P/E (11.15), appealing for value, while RGLD provides operational leverage via streams.
Introduction
Newmont Corporation (NEM), Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS), and Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) represent key players in the precious metals sector, blending gold production, silver mining, and royalty streaming models. This comparison analyzes their recent market positioning, performance amid gold price volatility, and relative strengths for traders eyeing sector rotation or investors seeking commodity exposure. With gold near record highs but recent softening, these stocks offer insights into operational resilience, valuation, and growth potential in a dynamic environment.
NEM Overview and Recent Performance
Newmont Corporation (NEM) is the world's largest gold producer, operating mines across multiple continents. In recent market activity, shares traded around $108.62, down about 4% over the past month amid broader gold sector pressure. Q1 2026 results showed record free cash flow (FCF, cash generated after capital expenditures) of $3.1 billion, EPS of $2.90 beating estimates, and revenue of $7.31 billion, prompting a $6 billion share buyback authorization. Sentiment remains positive with analyst targets averaging $144, though production dipped 15% year-over-year, influencing a post-earnings pullback despite strong fundamentals.
PAAS Overview and Recent Performance
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) focuses on silver and gold production from mines in the Americas. Shares hovered near $51.81, reflecting modest YTD gains of 1.4% in a volatile sector. Recent Q4 2025 revenue hit a record $1.18 billion with EPS of $1.11, supporting growth outlook from projects like La Colorada. Analyst upgrades, including Scotiabank's $65 target, bolster sentiment, though higher beta (1.53, volatility relative to market) amplifies gold and silver price swings. Upcoming Q1 earnings on May 5 add near-term focus, with shares showing resilience versus pure gold peers.
RGLD Overview and Recent Performance
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) generates revenue through streaming and royalty agreements on precious metals production, avoiding direct mining risks. Trading at $230.59 with 4% YTD upside, shares have pulled back slightly in recent weeks alongside gold's softening. Low beta (0.55) underscores stability, complemented by UBS's new buy rating and $325 target. Integration of new assets drives valuation discussions, with Q1 2026 results due May 6. Elevated trailing P/E reflects premium for its asset-light model amid favorable metal prices.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
NEM and PAAS operate mines directly, exposing them to costs and production risks, while RGLD's royalty model provides higher margins and lower capex. Growth drivers include NEM's scale and buybacks versus RGLD's stream expansions. Recent momentum favors NEM on YTD returns, but all face gold sensitivity. Risks: PAAS highest beta, NEM production variability. Valuation: NEM cheapest forward P/E at 11.15, RGLD premium at 17.83. Sentiment tilts positive across the board with strong buy ratings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward NEM for its trend consistency, superior YTD performance, massive FCF generation, and buyback catalyst, positioning it favorably amid gold volatility. RGLD offers stability, while PAAS silver leverage, but NEM's value metrics suggest higher probability of outperformance in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NEM’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePAAS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and RGLD’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- NEM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PAAS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RGLD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NEM’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAAS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and RGLD’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NEM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- PAAS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RGLD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NEM (@Precious Metals) experienced а +9.80% price change this week, while PAAS (@Precious Metals) price change was +26.25% , and RGLD (@Precious Metals) price fluctuated +8.61% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was +9.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +14.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +68.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
NEM is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
PAAS is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
RGLD is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (+9.39% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
| NEM | PAAS | RGLD | |
| Capitalization | 128B | 26.9B | 20.8B |
| EBITDA | 16.2B | 2.22B | 1.03B |
| Gain YTD | 20.112 | 23.427 | 10.809 |
| P/E Ratio | 15.52 | 20.12 | 29.67 |
| Revenue | 25B | 4B | 1.31B |
| Total Cash | 8.78B | 1.61B | 234M |
| Total Debt | 5.53B | 845M | 596M |
NEM | PAAS | RGLD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 71 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 32 Undervalued | 17 Undervalued | 19 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 35 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 37 | 45 | 64 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 39 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 21 | 77 | 44 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PAAS's Valuation (17) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as RGLD (19) and is in the same range as NEM (32). This means that PAAS's stock grew similarly to RGLD’s and similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
RGLD's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as PAAS (35) and is in the same range as NEM (37). This means that RGLD's stock grew similarly to PAAS’s and similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's SMR Rating (37) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as PAAS (45) and is in the same range as RGLD (64). This means that NEM's stock grew similarly to PAAS’s and similarly to RGLD’s over the last 12 months.
PAAS's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as NEM (41) and is in the same range as RGLD (53). This means that PAAS's stock grew similarly to NEM’s and similarly to RGLD’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as RGLD (44) and is somewhat better than the same rating for PAAS (77). This means that NEM's stock grew similarly to RGLD’s and somewhat faster than PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
| NEM | PAAS | RGLD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 67% | 8 days ago 72% | 8 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 71% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| COTG | 15.51 | 0.71 | +4.76% |
| Leverage Shares 2X Long COST Daily ETF | |||
| SDS | 58.73 | 0.20 | +0.34% |
| ProShares UltraShort S&P500 | |||
| FLCV | 34.17 | -0.01 | -0.04% |
| Federated Hermes MDT Large Cap Value ETF | |||
| LRGF | 73.74 | -0.11 | -0.15% |
| iShares U.S. Equity Factor ETF | |||
| RFEM | 92.80 | -2.68 | -2.80% |
| First Trust RiverFront Dyn Em Mkts ETF | |||
NEM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NEM has been closely correlated with KGC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NEM jumps, then KGC could also see price increases.