Advertisement
NVDA or ON or TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) vs. ON Semiconductor (ON) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NVDA leads in AI-driven data center growth with Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year, but shares have declined amid high valuations and market volatility.
- ON faces softer demand in automotive and industrial segments, with shares trading around recent lows near $62, reflecting broader sector challenges.
- TSM benefits from surging AI chip production, posting YTD gains of about 12% versus NVDA's -6%, with strong revenue growth of 36% in 2025.
- All three operate in semiconductors, but NVDA and TSM show superior AI exposure compared to ON's diversified power management focus.
- Recent market activity highlights TSM's relative stability, with lower P/E ratio around 32 versus NVDA's 35.
- Geopolitical risks and supply chain dynamics impact TSM, while U.S.-China tensions affect NVDA.
Introduction
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), ON Semiconductor (ON), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) represent key players in the semiconductor sector, pivotal to AI, automotive, and computing advancements. This stock comparison evaluates their recent performance, business models, and market positioning amid surging AI demand and supply chain shifts. Traders seeking momentum in high-growth tech and investors eyeing relative stability in chip manufacturing will find insights into relative performance, growth drivers, and risks in the current environment.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) designs GPUs essential for AI data centers, gaming, and autonomous vehicles. Its business thrives on data center dominance, which accounted for 91.5% of Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue at $62.3 billion, up 75% year-over-year. In recent market activity, shares have faced pressure, declining about 6% YTD and pulling back from peaks near $212 amid post-earnings volatility and U.S.-China export concerns. Sentiment remains buoyed by strong AI infrastructure demand, though high valuations and competition temper gains.
ON Overview and Recent Performance
ON Semiconductor (ON) specializes in power management and sensor solutions for automotive, industrial, and cloud applications. Recent quarters reflect softer demand, with shares trading around $62 after dipping from highs near $74. Q4 2025 results showed resilience with EPS beating estimates, but revenue misses highlighted inventory adjustments in end-markets. Performance has been volatile, down over 10% in recent weeks amid broader industrial slowdowns, though recovery signs emerge with recent upticks. Investor sentiment focuses on potential rebound in EV and power efficiency trends.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), the world's leading contract chipmaker, fabricates advanced nodes for clients like NVDA and Apple. It reported 2025 revenue up 36% to $122.4 billion, driven by AI accelerators comprising growing wafer revenue. Shares have outperformed YTD with ~12% gains, trading near $347 despite pullbacks from $390 peaks, supported by robust high-performance computing demand. Geopolitical tensions add risk, but capacity expansions bolster sentiment.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page showcases the platform's top-performing AI trading bots, curated from hundreds available that trade thousands of tickers across diverse strategies, timeframes, and styles. These bots leverage advanced pattern recognition and financial learning models, with recent standouts posting 30-day annualized returns up to 171%, win rates exceeding 88%, and profit factors over 2.0 in sectors like semiconductors. Only those demonstrating superior adaptability to current volatility and market conditions earn a spot, offering short-term swings, trend-following, or momentum plays. Explore these high-conviction signals to enhance your trading edge.
Head-to-Head Comparison
NVDA excels in fabless design with explosive AI growth (73% revenue surge), but trades at premium P/E of 35 amid volatility risks. ON offers diversified exposure to power semis for autos and industrials, yet lags in momentum with softer end-market demand and higher beta. TSM, as a foundry, powers peers like NVDA with stable 36% growth and lower P/E near 32, though Taiwan geopolitics heightens risks versus U.S.-based NVDA and ON. All share semiconductor cyclicality, but NVDA and TSM lead AI catalysts while ON emphasizes valuation sensitivity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TSM for its trend consistency, relative YTD outperformance, and foundational role in AI chip supply with lower volatility than NVDA. Strong catalysts like advanced node ramps and broad client demand position it probabilistically ahead in the near term, though NVDA retains upside from data center dominance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NVDA’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileON’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TSM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ON’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NVDA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ON’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and TSM’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NVDA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
NVDA (@Semiconductors) experienced а +6.34% price change this week, while ON (@Semiconductors) price change was +10.39% , and TSM (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +9.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +6.73%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.06%.
Reported Earning Dates
NVDA is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
ON is expected to report earnings on May 04, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Apr 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+6.73% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| NVDA | ON | TSM | |
| Capitalization | 4.58T | 27B | 1.63T |
| EBITDA | 145B | 888M | 2.74T |
| Gain YTD | 1.148 | 26.777 | 22.635 |
| P/E Ratio | 38.50 | 236.72 | 35.52 |
| Revenue | 216B | 6B | 3.81T |
| Total Cash | N/A | 2.55B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 11B | 3.01B | N/A |
NVDA | ON | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 19 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | 51 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 74 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 13 | 88 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 8 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 1 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (51) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVDA (77) and is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (87). This means that TSM's stock grew similarly to NVDA’s and somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVDA (10) and is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (74). This means that TSM's stock grew similarly to NVDA’s and somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (26) and is significantly better than the same rating for ON (88). This means that NVDA's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and significantly faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
ON's Price Growth Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (39) and is somewhat better than the same rating for NVDA (49). This means that ON's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and somewhat faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
ON's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (19) and is somewhat better than the same rating for NVDA (56). This means that ON's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and somewhat faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| NVDA | ON | TSM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 90% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 68% | 13 days ago 77% | 23 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 61% |
Advertisement
ON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ON has been closely correlated with MCHP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ON jumps, then MCHP could also see price increases.
TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | +1.40% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +2.05% | ||
| ASX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +1.35% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +1.89% | ||
| NVDA - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +2.57% | ||
| MPWR - TSM | 72% Closely correlated | +1.47% | ||
More | ||||