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NVDA or ON or TXN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) vs. ON Semiconductor (ON) vs. Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NVDA leads in AI-driven growth with record fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.9 billion, though YTD down ~6% amid market volatility.
- ON faces pressure with ~14% decline over recent weeks, trading near $59, but analysts see 20% upside to $70 on earnings recovery.
- TXN shows YTD strength up ~13%, bolstered by analog chip demand in AI data centers and capex cuts signaling cash flow harvest.
- All three operate in semiconductors, but NVDA dominates high-end GPUs, while ON and TXN focus on power and analog for broader applications.
- Recent momentum favors TXN for stability, but NVDA's AI catalysts drive long-term outperformance.
- Sector tailwinds from AI infrastructure persist, influencing relative performance and sentiment shifts.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines NVDA, a leader in AI GPUs; ON, a power semiconductor specialist; and TXN, an analog and embedded processing giant—all key players in the semiconductor sector fueling AI and data center growth. Traders seeking high-momentum AI exposure may gravitate toward NVDA, while those prioritizing stability in industrial and automotive end-markets might prefer ON or TXN. Investors benefit from understanding their relative performance, business drivers, and market positioning amid ongoing AI infrastructure buildouts and sector cyclicality.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) dominates accelerated computing, particularly GPUs for AI data centers, gaming, and professional visualization. Its data center segment, over 91% of revenue, drove fiscal 2026 record sales of $215.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year, with Q4 at $68.1 billion reflecting 73% growth. Recent market activity saw shares pull back ~6% YTD to around $175, with a 52-week range of $86.62-$212.19, amid post-earnings volatility and broader sector concerns over AI spending sustainability. Sentiment remains buoyed by Blackwell platform ramps and upcoming Vera Rubin architecture, though high valuations and competition temper near-term momentum.
ON Overview and Recent Performance
ON Semiconductor (ON) supplies power management and sensors, targeting automotive and industrial markets as the second-largest power chipmaker globally. Recent weeks brought challenges, with shares declining ~14% to near $59, reflecting broader sector pressures and inventory adjustments. Analysts maintain a consensus price target of $70, implying 20% upside, supported by projected earnings growth despite modest revenue outlook. Key influences include leadership transitions and fluctuating demand in end-markets, with sentiment shifting on expected Q1 EPS of $0.62 amid mixed recovery signals.
TXN Overview and Recent Performance
Texas Instruments (TXN) leads in analog and embedded processing chips for industrial, automotive, and communications, with over 70% from stable analog products. Shares gained ~13% YTD to around $195, outperforming peers amid AI data center tailwinds for power-efficient solutions like its 800V architecture. Recent activity included volatility, with a ~12% monthly dip offset by capex reductions to $2-3 billion in 2026, signaling a free cash flow inflection toward $8+ per share. Sentiment benefits from diversified exposure and 22 years of dividend growth, though cyclical inventory risks persist.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
NVDA, ON, and TXN share semiconductor roots but contrast sharply: NVDA’s GPU-centric model thrives on explosive AI data center growth (91% revenue), versus ON and TXN’s focus on power/analog for automotive (high-teens growth) and industrial applications. Recent momentum sees TXN ahead YTD (+13%), NVDA lagging (-6%) on valuation resets, and ON weakest (-14%) amid cycles. Risks include NVDA’s lofty P/E (~35) and competition, ON’s inventory sensitivity, and TXN’s slower expansion. Valuation sensitivity favors TXN’s cash returns; sentiment tilts to NVDA on AI catalysts versus peers’ stability trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors NVDA due to superior trend consistency in recent market activity, backed by unmatched revenue growth, Blackwell ramps, and AI infrastructure dominance. While TXN offers stability and ON recovery potential, NVDA’s catalysts position it probabilistically stronger for momentum, albeit with higher volatility.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NVDA’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileON’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TXN’s FA Score reflects 4 green FA rating(s).
- NVDA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- ON’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TXN’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NVDA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ON’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and TXN’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NVDA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TXN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NVDA (@Semiconductors) experienced а +6.92% price change this week, while ON (@Semiconductors) price change was +20.92% , and TXN (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +7.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +11.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
NVDA is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
ON is expected to report earnings on May 04, 2026.
TXN is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+11.63% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| NVDA | ON | TXN | |
| Capitalization | 4.9T | 32.7B | 209B |
| EBITDA | 145B | 888M | 8.25B |
| Gain YTD | 8.145 | 53.296 | 33.333 |
| P/E Ratio | 41.16 | 286.24 | 42.17 |
| Revenue | 216B | 6B | 17.7B |
| Total Cash | 62.6B | 2.55B | 4.88B |
| Total Debt | 11B | 3.01B | 14B |
NVDA | ON | TXN | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 28 | 22 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 89 Overvalued | 14 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 67 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 13 | 88 | 32 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 3 | 13 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 1 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TXN's Valuation (14) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVDA (78) and is significantly better than the same rating for ON (89). This means that TXN's stock grew somewhat faster than NVDA’s and significantly faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TXN (48) and is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (67). This means that NVDA's stock grew somewhat faster than TXN’s and somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TXN (32) and is significantly better than the same rating for ON (88). This means that NVDA's stock grew similarly to TXN’s and significantly faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
ON's Price Growth Rating (3) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TXN (13) and is in the same range as NVDA (16). This means that ON's stock grew similarly to TXN’s and similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
ON's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TXN (25) and is somewhat better than the same rating for NVDA (43). This means that ON's stock grew similarly to TXN’s and somewhat faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| NVDA | ON | TXN | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 68% | 20 days ago 77% | 20 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 45% |
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TXN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TXN has been closely correlated with MCHP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TXN jumps, then MCHP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TXN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXN | 100% | +3.01% | ||
| MCHP - TXN | 82% Closely correlated | +2.46% | ||
| MCHPP - TXN | 78% Closely correlated | +2.32% | ||
| NXPI - TXN | 75% Closely correlated | +1.08% | ||
| ADI - TXN | 74% Closely correlated | +4.99% | ||
| ON - TXN | 70% Closely correlated | +3.85% | ||
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