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OKE or PAA or TRGP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ONEOK (OKE) vs. Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) vs. Targa Resources (TRGP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- TRGP leads YTD performance at around 41%, outpacing OKE's 26% and PAA's 31%, driven by strong Permian Basin volumes and a recent 25% dividend increase.
- OKE reported Q1 2026 net income of $776 million, up 12%, with raised full-year guidance, supporting steady natural gas and NGL momentum.
- PAA demonstrates robust crude oil logistics growth, with YTD gains reflecting Permian focus, though pending NGL business sale introduces near-term uncertainty.
- All three benefit from fee-based midstream models, but TRGP trades at a premium valuation (P/E ~30x) versus OKE (~16x) and PAA (~20x).
- Dividend yields favor PAA (~8-9%) and OKE (~4.6%), while TRGP offers ~1.6-2% post-hike, balancing income with growth potential.
- Recent market activity highlights sector resilience amid energy demand, with relative performance tied to basin throughput and expansion projects.
Introduction
This comparison examines OKE, PAA, and TRGP, leading midstream energy firms focused on pipelines, processing, and logistics. These stocks appeal to income-oriented investors seeking stable cash flows from fee-based contracts, as well as traders eyeing momentum in natural gas liquids (NGLs) and crude transport amid Permian Basin growth. In the current environment of sustained energy demand and infrastructure expansions, understanding their business models, recent performance, and relative positioning aids decisions on portfolio allocation for long-term holding or short-term trades.
OKE Overview and Recent Performance
ONEOK (OKE), Inc. operates as a midstream provider of natural gas gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, and storage across key U.S. basins like the Permian and Rocky Mountains. Recent market activity saw OKE's stock rise approximately 3% over the past 30 days, trading around $90 with a 52-week range of $64-$95. Q1 2026 results showed net income of $776 million, up 12% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA growth of 13%, fueled by 15% higher NGL throughput and refined products volumes. The company raised 2026 guidance to $3.5 billion net income, reflecting optimism from projects like the Medford fractionator rebuild and Denver pipeline expansion. Sentiment benefits from fee-based revenue stability and acquisition synergies, though margin pressures from seasonality tempered gains.
PAA Overview and Recent Performance
Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), L.P. specializes in crude oil and NGL pipeline transportation, terminalling, and storage, primarily in the Permian and across U.S./Canada. The stock has climbed about 2-3% in recent weeks, hovering near $22 with a 52-week range of $16-$23. YTD returns stand at 31%, supported by strong throughput amid Permian production. Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA reached $2.83 billion, with Q4 net income at $342 million. Key influences include a planned Canadian NGL sale closing in May 2026, freeing capital for U.S. crude focus, and robust cash flows from fee-based logistics. Performance reflects resilience in crude demand, balanced against commodity-linked merchant activities and regulatory reviews.
TRGP Overview and Recent Performance
Targa Resources (TRGP) Corp. engages in natural gas gathering, processing, and NGL logistics, with assets in the Permian, STACK, and Gulf Coast. Shares have advanced roughly 3-4% over recent weeks, trading around $259 in a 52-week range of $144-$260. YTD gains exceed 41%, propelled by record Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $1.34 billion (up 20%) and Permian volumes up 10%. A 25% quarterly dividend hike to $1.25 underscores cash flow confidence from expansions and exports. Sentiment is buoyed by volume growth offsetting softer commodity prices, though capex for new plants introduces execution risks in a competitive processing landscape.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
OKE, PAA, and TRGP share midstream exposure but differ in focus: OKE on natural gas/NGL fractionation, PAA on crude logistics, and TRGP on gas processing/exports. Growth drivers center on Permian throughput, with TRGP's 10% volume rise contrasting OKE's NGL gains and PAA's basin positioning. Recent momentum favors TRGP (YTD 41%) over PAA (31%) and OKE (26%), yet OKE offers attractive valuation (P/E 16x, EV/EBITDA ~11x) versus TRGP's premium (30x, 15x) and PAA's mid-range (20x). Risk factors include commodity volatility, regulatory hurdles (e.g., PAA's NGL sale), and capex burdens, with OKE's lower beta (~0.75) signaling stability. Sector ties to energy demand provide tailwinds, but TRGP faces overbuild risks while PAA's merchant exposure adds sensitivity. Trade-offs pit TRGP's upside against OKE/PAA's income and value.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI leans toward TRGP in the current environment, given its superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and catalysts like Permian expansions and dividend growth. Relative positioning in high-growth NGL exports edges it over OKE's steady guidance raises and PAA's crude focus, though probabilistic edges favor TRGP's momentum amid basin activity.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
OKE’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePAA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TRGP’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- OKE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PAA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TRGP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
OKE’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAA’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and TRGP’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- OKE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PAA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TRGP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
OKE (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) experienced а -3.13% price change this week, while PAA (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) price change was -2.89% , and TRGP (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) price fluctuated -2.24% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Pipelines industry was -1.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.48%, and the average quarterly price growth was +28.03%.
Reported Earning Dates
OKE is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
PAA is expected to report earnings on Jul 31, 2026.
TRGP is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Pipelines (-1.57% weekly)Oil & Gas Pipelines industry includes companies that transport natural gas and crude oil through pipelines. These companies also collect and market the fuels. The pipeline segment could be considered as a midstream operation – functioning as a link between the upstream and downstream operations in the oil and gas industry. Some of the largest U.S. pipeline players include Enterprise Products Partners L.P, TC Energy Corporation and Energy Transfer, L.P.
| OKE | PAA | TRGP | |
| Capitalization | 55.3B | 15.5B | 54.3B |
| EBITDA | 7.92B | 2.91B | 5.22B |
| Gain YTD | 22.529 | 27.431 | 38.602 |
| P/E Ratio | 15.65 | 19.82 | 25.86 |
| Revenue | 35.2B | 44.3B | 16.6B |
| Total Cash | 172M | N/A | 100M |
| Total Debt | 33.7B | 11.5B | 19.1B |
OKE | PAA | TRGP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 65 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 17 Undervalued | 7 Undervalued | 47 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 47 | 7 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 53 | 64 | 15 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 44 | 20 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 44 | 67 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 49 | 50 | 26 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PAA's Valuation (7) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as OKE (17) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TRGP (47) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PAA's stock grew similarly to OKE’s and somewhat faster than TRGP’s over the last 12 months.
PAA's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as TRGP (9) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for OKE (47) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry. This means that PAA's stock grew similarly to TRGP’s and somewhat faster than OKE’s over the last 12 months.
TRGP's SMR Rating (15) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OKE (53) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PAA (64) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry. This means that TRGP's stock grew somewhat faster than OKE’s and somewhat faster than PAA’s over the last 12 months.
TRGP's Price Growth Rating (20) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PAA (44) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry, and is in the same range as OKE (49) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry. This means that TRGP's stock grew similarly to PAA’s and similarly to OKE’s over the last 12 months.
PAA's P/E Growth Rating (44) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as OKE (57) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry, and is in the same range as TRGP (67) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PAA's stock grew similarly to OKE’s and similarly to TRGP’s over the last 12 months.
| OKE | PAA | TRGP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 41% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 65% | 13 days ago 66% | 8 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 52% | 5 days ago 53% | 23 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 73% |
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OKE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OKE has been closely correlated with TRGP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OKE jumps, then TRGP could also see price increases.
PAA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PAA has been closely correlated with PAGP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 96% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PAA jumps, then PAGP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PAA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAA | 100% | +1.27% | ||
| PAGP - PAA | 96% Closely correlated | +1.34% | ||
| AM - PAA | 77% Closely correlated | +1.86% | ||
| OKE - PAA | 57% Loosely correlated | +3.09% | ||
| EPD - PAA | 55% Loosely correlated | +1.91% | ||
| TRGP - PAA | 53% Loosely correlated | +2.04% | ||
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TRGP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TRGP has been closely correlated with OKE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TRGP jumps, then OKE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TRGP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRGP | 100% | +2.04% | ||
| OKE - TRGP | 71% Closely correlated | +3.09% | ||
| KNTK - TRGP | 54% Loosely correlated | +1.05% | ||
| VNOM - TRGP | 53% Loosely correlated | +1.54% | ||
| PAGP - TRGP | 53% Loosely correlated | +1.34% | ||
| PAA - TRGP | 53% Loosely correlated | +1.27% | ||
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