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PEP or PG or PM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? PepsiCo (PEP) vs. Procter & Gamble (PG) vs. Philip Morris International (PM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PEP leads YTD performance at around 12%, buoyed by resilient international growth and a 3.4% dividend yield, though facing North American volume pressures.
- PG offers stability as a Dividend King with 70 years of increases, but recent stock dips reflect margin challenges from costs and tariffs.
- PM shows strong long-term growth via smoke-free products, with EPS projected up 12% in 2026, despite a recent post-earnings pullback.
- All three boast attractive yields above 3% and defensive consumer staples positioning, with PM exhibiting the highest multi-year returns.
- Recent weeks highlight volatility, with PEP and PM gaining on momentum while PG lags amid sector headwinds.
- Valuations cluster around 22-26x trailing P/E, with growth prospects favoring PM's transition catalysts.
Introduction
This comparison examines PEP, PG, and PM, three consumer staples giants known for defensive qualities, reliable dividends, and global reach. PEP dominates beverages and snacks, PG leads in household essentials, and PM pivots to smoke-free alternatives. Traders seeking relative performance edges in volatile markets and long-term investors prioritizing stability and yield will find value in analyzing their recent momentum, sector exposures, and growth drivers amid shifting consumer trends and economic pressures.
PEP Overview and Recent Performance
PepsiCo (PEP) operates a diversified portfolio spanning beverages like Pepsi and Mountain Dew, alongside snacks under Frito-Lay and Quaker. Its international division, contributing over 40% of revenue, drives consistent growth through localized innovation and distribution expansion in emerging markets. Recent market activity shows resilience, with shares up about 12% YTD and 18% over recent months, outpacing the S&P 500. Sentiment benefits from a 3.4% dividend yield and reaffirmed 2026 guidance for 2-4% organic revenue growth, despite North American volume softness from health trends and pricing scrutiny. Declining sales volumes pose concerns, but margin gains from productivity and international momentum (4.5% organic growth in 2025) support stability.
PG Overview and Recent Performance
Procter & Gamble (PG) is the world's largest consumer products maker, with brands like Tide, Pampers, and Gillette spanning beauty, health care, fabric, and home care. Its insight-led innovation and supply chain efficiencies fuel category leadership across 180 countries. Recent performance reflects caution, with shares down in recent weeks amid broader sector weakness, though YTD gains hover around 8%. A 70-year dividend increase streak and Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings beat ($1.88 EPS) bolster confidence, but elevated input costs, tariffs, and softer demand in baby care pressure margins. Organic sales held flat recently, offset by pricing, with productivity savings aiding resilience in a promotional environment.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International (PM) focuses on smoke-free products like IQOS heated tobacco and ZYN nicotine pouches, transitioning from traditional cigarettes amid regulatory shifts. Operating globally outside the U.S., it leverages high margins from reduced-risk offerings. Shares have delivered robust multi-year gains (94% over three years), with YTD up nearly 6%, though recent weeks saw a 5-9% dip post-Q4 earnings miss on adjusted metrics. Sentiment shifts on revenue alignment but EPS growth projections of 11-13% for 2026, fueled by high-single-digit smoke-free volume rises, sustain appeal. A 3.4% yield and undervaluation signals by analysts enhance positioning.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
PEP, PG, and PM anchor consumer staples with yields over 3% and market caps exceeding $200 billion, but diverge in models: PEP's beverage/snack duality offers volume exposure vulnerable to health shifts, versus PG's essentials stability and PM's high-margin tobacco transition. Growth drivers contrast PM's 12% EPS acceleration from smoke-free adoption against PEP's international reliance (4-7% organic) and PG's innovation-led pricing. Recent momentum favors PEP YTD, but PM boasts superior three-year returns. Risks include PEP/ PG tariff/cost squeezes versus PM's regulatory hurdles; valuations at 22-26x P/E show PM as growth-premium play amid sentiment tilting to transition stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI leans toward PM in the current environment, citing consistent trend strength in smoke-free catalysts, superior multi-year positioning, and projected 11-13% EPS growth outpacing peers' 4-7% organic targets. While PEP shows short-term YTD edge and PG dividend reliability, PM's margin expansion and undervaluation (potentially 6-14% below fair value) signal higher probability of relative outperformance, barring regulatory setbacks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PEP’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whilePG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and PM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- PEP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PEP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PM’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PEP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PEP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) experienced а +0.71% price change this week, while PG (@Household/Personal Care) price change was +0.63% , and PM (@Tobacco) price fluctuated -3.20% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -0.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.75%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2127.24%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was -0.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.55%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -0.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.53%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
PEP is expected to report earnings on Jul 14, 2026.
PG is expected to report earnings on Apr 24, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-0.31% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
@Household/Personal Care (-0.07% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Tobacco (-0.10% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| PEP | PG | PM | |
| Capitalization | 215B | 336B | 246B |
| EBITDA | 15.5B | 24.5B | 17.5B |
| Gain YTD | 10.362 | 1.539 | -0.900 |
| P/E Ratio | 24.65 | 21.41 | 21.69 |
| Revenue | 93.9B | 85.3B | 40.6B |
| Total Cash | 9.53B | 10.8B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 49.9B | 36.6B | 48.8B |
PEP | PG | PM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 54 | 51 | 67 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 26 Undervalued | 38 Fair valued | 22 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 59 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 30 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 32 | 59 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 82 | 83 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PM's Valuation (22) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PEP (26) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as PG (38) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to PEP’s and similarly to PG’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PG (59) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PEP (61) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that PM's stock grew somewhat faster than PG’s and somewhat faster than PEP’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PEP (21) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as PG (30) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to PEP’s and similarly to PG’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's Price Growth Rating (32) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as PG (59) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as PM (60) in the Tobacco industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to PG’s and similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PG (82) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PM (83) in the Tobacco industry. This means that PEP's stock grew somewhat faster than PG’s and somewhat faster than PM’s over the last 12 months.
| PEP | PG | PM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 35% | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 39% | 13 days ago 45% | 13 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 6 days ago 42% | 6 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 40% | 1 day ago 42% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 33% | 1 day ago 35% | 1 day ago 32% |
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