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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
Jul 03, 2019

Comerica (CMA, $71.32) stock gets a rating downgrade & price target cut by Goldman Sachs

Shares of financial Services company Comerica got downgraded by Goldman Sachs.

Goldman analysts lowered their rating on the stock to sell from neutral. They also slashed their price target on the shares to $70 from $86.

Analyst Ryan Nash cautioned clients in a note that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts could offset Comerica’s commendable actions at boosting loan growth, controlling costs and returning capital. Nash pointed out that Comerica’s  disclosures indicate that its NII (net interest income) will decline by 12% from a 200bp decrease in rates (100bp average) compared to its peers' disclosures at a lower 5%. Nash further added that while Comerica has invested in $2.8 billion of swaps to hedge the interest rate risks, his team estimates that the company would need an additional $20 billion-$24 billion to be sufficiently hedged.

According to Nash, several expense advantages in 2019 that helped Comerica to keep costs flat are unlikely to repeat (FDIC costs, GEAR up savings). He also noted that most of its excess capital has been used up.

 

Related Ticker: CMA

CMA in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on December 17, 2024

CMA moved below its 50-day moving average on December 17, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 37 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 70 cases where CMA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The 10-day moving average for CMA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on December 19, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for CMA entered a downward trend on January 02, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CMA's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on January 03, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CMA as a result. In of 100 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMA just turned positive on January 07, 2025. Looking at past instances where CMA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMA advanced for three days, in of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

CMA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.192) is normal, around the industry mean (1.030). P/E Ratio (8.402) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.662). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.310) is also within normal values, averaging (2.366). Dividend Yield (0.052) settles around the average of (0.058) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.004) is also within normal values, averaging (2.921).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CMA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are US Bancorp (NYSE:USB), PNC Financial Services Group (NYSE:PNC), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (NYSE:DB), Banco Bradesco SA (NYSE:BBD), Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ:HBAN), Regions Financial Corp (NYSE:RF), KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), Veritex Holdings (NASDAQ:VBTX).

Industry description

Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Regional Banks Industry is 5.88B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 22.65 to 133.96B. HDB holds the highest valuation in this group at 133.96B. The lowest valued company is VLYPP at 22.65.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Regional Banks Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 10%. BOID experienced the highest price growth at 44%, while BKRKF experienced the biggest fall at -28%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Regional Banks Industry was 5%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 29% and the average quarterly volume growth was -13%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 41
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 36
Profit Risk Rating: 65
Seasonality Score: 8 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a major bank

Industry RegionalBanks

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Major Banks
Address
1717 Main Street
Phone
+1 214 462-6831
Employees
7863
Web
https://www.comerica.com