CNM stock forecast, quote, news & analysis

Key Takeaways

• Core & Main reported Q4 fiscal 2025 net sales of $1.58 billion, down 6.9% year-over-year due to one fewer selling week, slightly missing consensus estimates of $1.59 billion.
• Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $0.52, surpassing expectations and up 2.0% from prior year.
• Gross profit margin expanded 50 basis points to 27.1%, driven by private label growth and pricing discipline.
• Full-year fiscal 2025 net sales rose 2.8% to $7.65 billion, marking the 16th consecutive year of growth; adjusted EBITDA edged up 0.1% to $931 million.
• Company issued fiscal 2026 guidance for net sales of $7.8-$7.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $950-$980 million.
• Generated $650 million in operating cash flow for fiscal 2025, supporting $155 million in share repurchases.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

As a leading distributor of water, wastewater, storm drainage, and fire protection products, Core & Main (CNM) serves critical infrastructure markets resilient to economic cycles. The fiscal 2025 Q4 results, covering the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2026, highlight the company's ability to grow average daily sales by 0.9% despite a softer residential construction environment and severe winter weather. Investors watch these reports closely for signs of municipal spending strength, margin expansion from private label initiatives, and acquisition impacts. With ongoing infrastructure investments and non-discretionary demand, CNM's performance offers insights into industrial distribution trends amid moderating end-market volumes.

Earnings Expectations or Reported Results

Core & Main reported Q4 fiscal 2025 net sales of $1,581 million, a 6.9% decline from $1,698 million in the prior year's 14-week period, primarily due to one fewer selling week. Average daily net sales rose 0.9%, with gains in fire protection from higher volumes and pricing, offset by lower volumes in pipes, valves & fittings, and storm drainage. This slightly missed analyst consensus of $1.59 billion.

Gross profit margin improved 50 basis points to 27.1%. Net income increased 9.0% to $73 million, driving reported diluted EPS to $0.37, up 12.1%. Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.52 rose 2.0% year-over-year and beat expectations. Adjusted EBITDA fell 6.7% to $167 million, with margin up 10 basis points to 10.6%.

For full fiscal 2025 (52 weeks ended February 1, 2026), net sales grew 2.8% to $7,647 million, with average daily sales up 4.8%. Adjusted EBITDA was nearly flat at $931 million (margin 12.2%), while adjusted diluted EPS increased 6.8% to $2.97.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Following the March 24, 2026 release, CNM shares initially dipped in pre-market trading by about 1.3% to around $47.79, reflecting caution over the revenue miss and conservative fiscal 2026 guidance amid residential weakness. Intraday, the stock traded down as much as 6.3% to $45.37 post-results, as investors weighed EPS strength and margin gains against softer sales and flat end-market outlook. Sentiment remains balanced, with appreciation for cash flow ($650 million) and buybacks, but concerns over private construction and macro uncertainties tempering enthusiasm.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Core & Main provided fiscal 2026 guidance (year ending January 31, 2027) for net sales of $7,800-$7,900 million, implying 2-3% growth assuming flat pricing and end markets. Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $950-$980 million (margin 12.2-12.4%), with operating cash flow at 60-70% conversion. This reflects above-market volume gains from sales initiatives like fusible HDPE and geosynthetics, plus prior acquisitions, offset by mid-single-digit residential declines and flat non-residential.

Investors should track municipal market stability, bolstered by steady funding, versus private sector volatility from interest rates, geopolitics, and builder confidence. Margin drivers include private label expansion (now ~5% of sales, up 100 bps), cost actions yielding efficiency, and sourcing discipline. Greenfield branch openings (10 in fiscal 2025) and tuck-in acquisitions will gauge geographic penetration in high-growth areas. Data center and treatment plant demand signals, alongside Q1 fiscal 2026 trends, will clarify momentum. Share repurchases remain opportunistic, with $684 million authorization. Broader infrastructure spending and weather impacts on construction will shape execution.

Disclaimer

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