CRTO stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Criteo SA is an ad-tech company in the digital advertising market... Show more
Why Is Criteo S.A. (CRTO) Stock Down -15.95% Today?
Key Takeaways
- CRTO shares plunged 15.95% to close at $16.91, following the release of Q1 2026 earnings before the market open.
- Primary catalyst: Disappointing earnings with revenue down 6% year-over-year to $425 million and contribution ex-TAC down 5% to $250 million, hit by a $27 million headwind in Retail Media from client scope reductions.
- Guidance also weighed on sentiment, with Q2 contribution ex-TAC forecasted at $260-$264 million (down 9-11% YoY at constant currency) and full-year low-single-digit decline.
- Trading volume spiked to 590,100 shares on May 5 ahead of earnings, but moderated today amid the sell-off.
- Broader ad tech sector faces headwinds, though CRTO's drop significantly outpaced the S&P 500's modest gains.
- Traders watch execution on AI integrations like OpenAI partnership and share repurchases ($31 million in Q1).
Opening Summary
Criteo S.A. (CRTO), the global commerce intelligence platform connecting brands, retailers, and media owners through performance-driven advertising solutions, saw its stock plummet 15.95% in the most recent trading session. Shares closed at $16.91, down from the prior close of $20.12. The sharp decline stemmed from market reaction to weaker-than-expected Q1 results and cautious full-year guidance, overshadowing beats on some metrics like adjusted EPS.
Earnings Results
Criteo's Q1 2026 revenue fell 6% year-over-year to $425 million, with contribution ex-TAC—a key profitability measure—dropping 5% to $250 million. The downturn was primarily driven by Retail Media, which contracted 31% due to scope changes with two major clients costing $27 million, despite 24% underlying client growth. Performance Media held steadier, with contribution ex-TAC up 2%. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $0.73, beating expectations but down 34% YoY amid higher operating expenses from growth investments. Positives included record Q1 activated media spend of $1 billion, up 8% at constant currency, and $31 million in share repurchases.
Soft Guidance Sparks Sell-Off
Investor disappointment intensified with forward guidance signaling ongoing pressure. Q2 contribution ex-TAC is projected at $260-$264 million, reflecting a 9-11% YoY decline at constant currency, while full-year contribution ex-TAC faces a low-single-digit drop. Management cited temporary Retail Media headwinds, macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical tensions, and softer U.S. client budgets. Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected at 32-34% for the year, prompting concerns over near-term profitability amid strategic shifts toward AI-driven commerce solutions.
Market Context and Trading Activity
Volume on the prior session reached 590,100 shares—elevated versus the three-month average of around 415,000—reflecting pre-earnings positioning, but today's trading was lighter at 116,385 shares as the sell-off unfolded. The plunge diverged sharply from the S&P 500's slight uptick, with the benchmark edging higher amid broader market resilience. Ad tech peers like The Trade Desk (TTD) have faced sector pressures YTD, though specific May 5 moves were mixed. CRTO breached near-term support near $18, trading toward its 52-week low of $16.15, signaling heightened volatility post-earnings.
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What Comes Next for CRTO
Investors will monitor Q2 execution, particularly Retail Media recovery post-client adjustments and momentum from AI advancements, including Criteo's integration as the first ad tech partner with OpenAI. Analyst consensus remains tilted positive with price targets around $30-$35, reflecting optimism on long-term commerce media growth. Key risks include persistent macro headwinds, ad spend fluctuations, and competitive pressures in performance marketing. Next earnings are slated for early August 2026, with focus on guidance progression and share repurchase updates. Sector developments in agentic AI and retail media will also influence sentiment.
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CRTO's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for CRTO moved out of oversold territory on May 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 38 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for CRTO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on April 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CRTO advanced for three days, in of 260 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
CRTO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 164 cases where CRTO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 51 cases where CRTO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CRTO as a result. In of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CRTO turned negative on May 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
CRTO moved below its 50-day moving average on May 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CRTO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.730) is normal, around the industry mean (31.652). P/E Ratio (7.723) is within average values for comparable stocks, (44.181). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.606). CRTO has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.045). P/S Ratio (0.457) is also within normal values, averaging (184.039).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CRTO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CRTO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 96, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a global technology company
Industry AdvertisingMarketingServices