PARR stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Par Pacific Holdings Inc is an oil and gas company that manages and maintains interests in energy and infrastructure businesses... Show more
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Stock Analysis: Navigating Refining Strength and Renewables Pivot
Key Takeaways
- Par Pacific Holdings delivered full-year 2025 net income of $369.4 million, reversing prior-year losses amid record refining throughput of 188 Mbpd.
- Q4 adjusted EBITDA reached $113.1 million, supported by strong margins in Hawaii and Montana refineries.
- Share repurchases reduced outstanding shares by 10% in 2025; new $250 million authorization signals shareholder focus.
- Total liquidity stands at $915 million, providing flexibility for growth initiatives like Hawaii renewables.
- Analysts raised price targets post-earnings, with Goldman Sachs at $53 and TD Cowen at $48; consensus holds around $48.
- Stock up over 50% YTD and 300% in the past year, reflecting robust energy sector momentum.
Current Market Snapshot
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) stock has shown strong momentum in recent trading sessions, driven by solid full-year results and positive analyst revisions. Trading near its 52-week high with elevated volumes, the refiner benefits from regional margin strength in Hawaii and the Rockies, alongside stable logistics and retail contributions. Broader refining dynamics, including favorable crack spreads, have supported price action, though volatility persists amid commodity fluctuations and operational turnarounds. Investors eye the balance sheet improvements and strategic shifts as key stabilizers in the latest market cycle.
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Recent Developments Driving PARR Price Action
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) experienced notable price volatility tied to key announcements over recent weeks. On February 24, 2026, the company released Q4 and full-year 2025 results, reporting net income of $77.7 million ($1.53 per diluted share) for the quarter and $369.4 million ($7.16 per share) for the year—a stark turnaround from 2024's $33.3 million loss. Adjusted EBITDA surged to $113.1 million in Q4 and $633.5 million annually, fueled by refining throughput averaging 191 Mbpd in Q4 and 188 Mbpd yearly. Hawaii margins hit $15.95 per barrel, while Montana reached $8.03 per barrel, bolstered by $199.5 million in Small Refinery Exemptions (SRE). Revenue for Q4 was $1.81 billion, beating estimates, though adjusted EPS of $1.17 missed consensus slightly at $1.28.
The earnings initially pressured shares lower due to the EPS shortfall and execution risks flagged around the Hawaii Renewables JV delay, but sentiment shifted positively. The board authorized a new $250 million share repurchase program in February 2026, following 2025 repurchases of 6.5 million shares (10% reduction) for $112.9 million. This capital return, alongside $915 million in liquidity (cash $164 million, ABL availability $439 million), underscored financial strength.
Analyst reactions propelled upside: TD Cowen raised its target to $48 from $39 on February 27 (Buy); Goldman Sachs to $53 from $44 on March 12 (Neutral); J.P. Morgan reiterated Buy on March 3. Consensus tilts Hold with an average target near $48, reflecting optimism on refining margins but caution on commodity exposure. Earlier, December 2025's term loan repricing lowered costs, and 2026 capex guidance of $190-220 million (turnarounds $50-60M, maintenance $105-115M, growth $35-45M) signals disciplined spending. Laramie Energy's hedged 2026 production at $3.46/MMBtu adds stability. These factors linked to a 13% post-earnings rally, with shares hitting new 52-week highs amid energy sector tailwinds.
2026 Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
As Par Pacific advances into 2026, investors should track refining throughput stability post-turnarounds, targeted at $50-60 million in spend, alongside maintenance capex of $105-115 million focused on catalyst renewals, Hawaii SPM upgrades, and Montana reliability. Total capex of $190-220 million balances growth investments ($35-45 million) in refining, logistics, and retail expansion. The Hawaii Renewables JV, eyeing first-half startup, represents a pivotal shift toward sustainable fuels amid regulatory pressures in key markets. Laramie Energy's 73% hedged production offers earnings visibility, while $915 million liquidity supports buybacks and opportunities.
Broader themes include crack spread persistence, crude sourcing dynamics, and SRE program evolution, alongside geopolitical risks impacting differentials. Competitive positioning in West Coast and Rockies markets, retail volume growth (up 1.6% in 2025), and logistics throughput will influence margins. Debt management (net term debt $476 million, D/E 79%) and free cash flow generation remain critical amid potential energy transition costs. Consensus points to $6.81 billion revenue and $4.28 EPS, down from 2025 peaks, emphasizing cycle management.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
PARR in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on May 14, 2026
PARR moved below its 50-day moving average on May 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 49 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PARR as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PARR turned negative on May 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PARR declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PARR advanced for three days, in of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
PARR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 274 cases where PARR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PARR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.945) is normal, around the industry mean (20.208). P/E Ratio (6.658) is within average values for comparable stocks, (28.330). PARR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.517). PARR has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.047). P/S Ratio (0.394) is also within normal values, averaging (0.625).
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General Information
a company which explores, develops and produces oil and gas properties
Industry OilRefiningMarketing