Is there any merit to technical analysis of the markets?
Inextricable Dichotomy: Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Securities in the marketplace operate on different planes. Their performance and value can be studied and predicted through two primary methods of evaluation, namely, fundamental and technical analysis. Although both strategies offer significant insights into the trading game, there is an ongoing debate regarding the efficacy and relevance of technical analysis. This is not to invalidate the importance of fundamental analysis. Given that fundamentals provide crucial insights into a company’s health, performance, and potential growth, they lay a solid foundation for any investor's decision-making process. However, the assumption that technical analysis is an extraneous process often undermines its potential contribution to informed investment decisions.
The Unique Identity of Market Securities
Market securities are a distinct entity from the underlying companies they represent. This distinction highlights the necessity for a specialized analytical system to monitor their behavior effectively. Just as a doctor wouldn’t assess a patient’s health merely by looking at them but would require in-depth tests and evaluations, a financial analyst needs to delve deeper into a security’s performance than just the associated company’s fundamentals. Recognizing this necessity gives birth to an entirely new framework for understanding market securities: technical analysis.
The Theoretical Blueprint: Efficient Market Hypothesis and Modern Portfolio Theory
Understanding the relevance of technical analysis requires a foundational understanding of its theoretical backbone, including the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). Both provide a theoretical blueprint for studying market behavior. They act as a white screen, setting a backdrop against which the myriad images of market activity can be projected and discerned, preventing these images from getting lost in the darkness of complex market mechanics.
Unearthing Market Trends: The Role of Moving Averages in Technical Analysis
One of the significant aspects of technical analysis is the detection of market trends. These trends, contrary to some critics' views, do exist and play a vital role in shaping the trajectory of trading activities. Herein, moving averages come to the fore as a powerful tool in the technical analyst's arsenal. These averages do not require profound scientific understanding but are a simple mathematical means to forecast the likely path of trading sessions. It’s akin to the water cooler in an office – the central hub around which the short-term anomalies or 'gossip' circulate.
The role of the technical analyst then becomes akin to a seasoned trend watcher, patiently observing the market's hustle and bustle, anticipating when the short-term trend – the wandering employee – will return to the 'water cooler' or moving average.
The Merit of Technical Analysis
Despite the criticisms and debates, the value of technical analysis in market securities cannot be dismissed. When used in tandem with fundamental analysis, it provides a more rounded perspective of the market, unlocking potential investment strategies and opportunities. Just as each employee contributes to the overall success of an organization, so does each type of analysis bring unique insights to the investment table. Therefore, it is safe to conclude that the merit of technical analysis is not just superficial but deeply embedded in the multifaceted nature of market securities.
Summary:
Securities in the market can be analyzed on technical levels or fundamental ones, and it is generally best to take both into account, despite the fact that some theories dispute the merits of technical analysis.
Some might say that fundamental analysis is all that you need to make wise investment decisions, and to some extent that is actually correct: at a minimal level, if all you had were fundamentals, you could make wise investment decisions. That does not mean, however, that all technical analysis is superfluous.
Securities are their own creature, to be technical about it: they are not the same thing as the companies that underlie them, and a system of analysis for monitoring their behavior is entirely necessary and natural.
The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Modern Portfolio Theory are theoretical archetypes, in a way, against which more specific, nuanced, and natural theories and phenomena can be observed because without that white screen behind them, the projected images of the market activity are more easily lost in the dark.
A lot of technical analysis has to do with finding trends. If you were to say that there are no such thing as trends, many people would pipe up and inform you that you are mistaken.
Moving averages are a big part of this analysis, and does not take a rocket scientist to see that there is a high probability the trading sessions will line up around the water cooler that is the moving average; it’s the meeting place amid the hubbub of the shorter anomalies.
A technical analyst merely tries to predict when the shorter-term trend is going to wander back to the water cooler.