Data as of October 6, 2026 (intraday)
Exhibit 5: Following a 20% or greater discount to NAV, public REITs usually outperform by a wide margin.
| Holding period after a 20%+ NAV discount | Public REITs (total return) | Private real estate (total return) | Excess return, public vs. private |
| 1 year | 30.1% | -6.5% | 36.7 pts |
| 2 years | 56.3% | -6.6% | 62.8 pts |
| 3 years | 89.0% | -10.1% | 99.0 pts |
Callout: "Public REITs outperformed private real estate 100% of the time over every two- and three-year period, and 86% of one-year periods."
Source (per chart): Janus Henderson and Morningstar Direct. Public REITs are represented by the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs TR USD index, private real estate by the NCREIF Fund ODCE index. Period: January 1, 1990 to September 30, 2022. Discount-to-NAV data comes from Green Street Advisors. Past performance does not predict future returns. Janus Henderson's related research: Public vs. private real estate: similar assets, different prices.
NAV (net asset value) is what a REIT's buildings are worth at today's private-market prices, minus its debt, per share. When a REIT's stock trades below NAV, you are buying its real estate for less than a private buyer would pay.
Why discounts close:
Our proxy: price-to-book. Consensus NAV estimates from Green Street and other providers are behind paywalls. So we screened every US equity REIT worth more than $1 billion by price-to-book: market value divided by shareholders' equity on the latest balance sheet (June 30, 2026). Book value is usually conservative for REITs, because buildings are carried at their depreciated cost. A stock below book is often trading below NAV too, but not always. Office and healthcare buildings with falling values can have a NAV below book.
| Rank | Ticker | Company | Sector | Price | Market cap | Book equity | Price/book | Discount to book | Off 52w high | Avg. target | Upside | Call |
| 1 | Medical Properties Trust | Healthcare | $3.30 | $2.0B | $4.5B | 0.44x | 56.4% | 49% | $4.15 | +25.8% | SELL | |
| 2 | Alexandria Real Estate | Life-science office | $45.92 | $8.0B | $16B | 0.52x | 48.5% | 43% | $53.50 | +16.5% | BUY | |
| 3 | Rayonier | Timber | $18.09 | $2.8B | $5.2B | 0.54x | 46.3% | 32% | $24.40 | +34.9% | BUY | |
| 4 | Rithm Capital | Diversified | $8.66 | $4.8B | $8.5B | 0.57x | 43.3% | 29% | $13.12 | +51.5% | BUY | |
| 5 | Millrose Properties | Residential land | $23.17 | $3.6B | $5.9B | 0.61x | 39.1% | 31% | $39.00 | +68.3% | BUY | |
| 6 | Kilroy Realty | Office | $33.90 | $3.9B | $5.2B | 0.76x | 24.3% | 22% | $37.88 | +11.7% | SELL | |
| 7 | Piedmont Office Realty | Office | $9.03 | $1.1B | $1.5B | 0.77x | 23.3% | 11% | $10.67 | +18.2% | BUY | |
| 8 | Innovative Industrial Properties | Industrial (cannabis) | $50.26 | $1.5B | $1.9B | 0.78x | 21.7% | 23% | $51.00 | +1.5% | SELL | |
| 9 | RLJ Lodging Trust | Hotel | $11.18 | $1.7B | $2.2B | 0.79x | 21.2% | 13% | $11.58 | +3.6% | SELL | |
| 10 | Easterly Government Properties | Office (government) | $23.27 | $1.1B | $1.3B | 0.82x | 18.1% | 10% | $24.40 | +4.9% | SELL |
MPT (Medical Properties Trust) — SELL. 1-month forecast: DOWN. The deepest discount on the list (56.4% below book) is a value trap: the stock is near its $3.21 low, and half of recent analysts are bearish given its long-running hospital-tenant problems.
ARE (Alexandria Real Estate Equities) — BUY. 1-month forecast: UP. Alexandria trades at nearly half of book value (0.52x) while holding its $0.72 quarterly dividend (Alexandria IR), the classic setup the Janus chart describes, with +16.5% to target.
RYN (Rayonier) — BUY. 1-month forecast: UP. After its merger with PotlatchDeltic created a timberland owner with over four million acres (Rayonier IR), Rayonier trades 46.3% below book with +34.9% to target and no bearish analysts.
MRP (Millrose Properties) — BUY. 1-month forecast: UP. At 0.61x book, this homebuilder land-banking REIT offers the biggest upside on the list (+68.3%), though a fresh downgrade by Citizens (Yahoo Finance) makes it a higher-risk buy.
KRC (Kilroy Realty) — SELL. 1-month forecast: DOWN. The 24.3% discount reflects real West Coast office risk, and only 12% of recent analysts are bullish.
PDM (Piedmont Office Realty) — BUY. 1-month forecast: UP. Piedmont is 23.3% below book and only 11% off its high, with +18.2% to target and no bearish analysts: the office name where the trend is already turning.
DEA (Easterly Government Properties) — SELL. 1-month forecast: DOWN. The government tenants are safe, but at 18.1% below book Easterly misses the 20% threshold, and with only +4.9% to target and no bullish analysts there is little catalyst.
RITM (Rithm Capital) — BUY. 1-month forecast: UP. Every recent analyst is bullish, and the $13.12 average target implies +51.5% from a stock trading at 0.57x book.
IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties) — SELL. 1-month forecast: DOWN. The cannabis-property landlord is cheap (0.78x book), but with only +1.5% to target and its only recent rating a Strong Sell, tenant risk outweighs the discount.
RLJ (RLJ Lodging Trust) — SELL. 1-month forecast: DOWN. The hotel REIT trades 21.2% below book, but half of recent analysts are bearish and only +3.6% remains to target.
| Group | BUY | SELL |
| Healthcare and life science | ||
| Land, timber and housing capital | none | |
| Office | ||
| Specialty and hotels | ||
| Total | 5 | 5 |
The lesson: the Janus chart measures the whole REIT market, not single stocks. A diversified basket bought at a 20% discount has historically won. Individual REITs at deep discounts can stay cheap, or get cheaper, if tenants are failing. Our BUYS combine a deep discount with analyst support. Our SELLS have deep discounts but weak analyst conviction or heavy tenant risk.
Tickeron has created a Financial Learning Model (FLM) for every REIT in this report: MPT, ARE, RYN, RITM, MRP, KRC, PDM, IIPR, RLJ and DEA. Each FLM learns its stock's trend behavior. That separates a discounted REIT starting to turn up (PDM, near its high) from one still making new lows (MPT).
Tickeron also runs AI Trading Bots for all 10. The Bots take the sector into account. Real estate is really a dozen different businesses, from office towers and hospitals to timberland and hotels. The Bots rotate toward the sub-sectors where the discount is starting to close, rather than buying everything that looks cheap.
The bottom line: history says buying REITs at a 20%+ discount has paid off handsomely over one to three years. The skill is picking which discounts close, and the FLMs and Bots are built for exactly that.
For informational purposes only; not investment advice. Prices as of October 6, 2026, intraday. The discount shown is to book value (shareholders' equity as of June 30, 2026), a proxy for NAV; consensus NAV estimates may differ. Chart data: Janus Henderson, Morningstar Direct, Green Street Advisors, 1990–2022; past performance does not predict future returns. Tickeron AI forecasts are model-based and do not guarantee future results.
Tickeron AI Perspective