TESLA should surprise everyone today, and how to trade it

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to report its first‑quarter 2025 earnings after the market close on April 22, with results posted at 4:07 PM ET followed by an earnings call at 5:30 PM ET Tesla Investor Relations. After missing estimates in Q4, all eyes are on whether Tesla can deliver a positive surprise.

What to Expect Today
 

Watch real‑time guidance updates and any changes in delivery or margin guidance. A clear, confident outlook could swing the stock higher despite mixed delivery trends.

 

Bottom Line: With estimates down and execution improvements possible, Tesla has the potential to surprise everyone today, but risks remain. Whether you’re a bull or a bear, be ready for a volatile reaction as the market digests both the numbers and management’s outlook.

How We Trade TSLA

TSLA / TSDD - AI Trading Bot Double Agent

BUY LONG: Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

Tesla, Inc. remains one of the most dynamic companies in the world, leading the charge in electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, energy generation, and storage solutions. As the largest automaker by market capitalization, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to innovate and disrupt traditional industries. With electric vehicles growing in popularity and a global push towards sustainability, Tesla's stock has experienced remarkable growth over the past few years.

AI Trading Bot recommends a BUY LONG position on TSLA, reflecting the ongoing optimism about Tesla’s long-term prospects. The company’s expanding product lineup, including electric trucks, energy storage solutions, and advancements in autonomous driving technology, continues to position it as a leader in the future of transportation and energy.

BUY LONG AS A HEDGE: TSDD (GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF)

In conjunction with the long position in TSLA, the AI Trading Bot also recommends buying TSDD, the GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF. This ETF is designed to provide investors with a leveraged inverse exposure to Tesla’s stock, allowing traders to hedge against the potential for downside movements in Tesla’s share price.

Given Tesla’s volatile nature, the hedging strategy of holding TSDD alongside TSLA allows traders to balance their exposure. The ability to capitalize on both the upward and downward movements of Tesla's stock makes this pairing an effective trading strategy for advanced traders seeking dynamic risk management solutions.

Suitability of the Double Agent Trading Bot

The Double Agent Trading Bot is an advanced trading algorithm designed to optimize trading strategies through a dual-approach model. The bot’s design integrates pattern trading across multiple timeframes, including H1 (hourly), M30 (30-minute), and H4 (4-hour), alongside proprietary algorithms based on the Daily timeframe. This multi-timeframe approach enables the bot to identify both short-term and long-term trends, allowing for more accurate and timely trade entries and exits.

One of the key features of the Double Agent bot is its flexibility in managing multiple open trades simultaneously. The system is capable of managing up to six open trades at once, making it suitable for traders of varying experience levels, including beginners. The bot’s swing trading capabilities allow it to leverage intraday patterns for entry signals while using the Daily timeframe for exits, ensuring that traders have sufficient time to react to market movements and adjust their positions accordingly.

 

Last Quarter Recap

Q4’s EPS shortfall highlighted margin pressures and softer demand, but the bar for Q1 is lower, setting the stage for upside if execution holds.

 

What Analysts Expect

Both metrics have trended lower as delivery woes weighed on forecasts. Should Tesla exceed these modest estimates, it could trigger a rally.

 

Key Areas to Watch

  1. Revenue & EPS vs. Estimates
     
    • A beat on either line could spark optimism, especially after Q4’s miss.
       
  2. Vehicle Deliveries
     
    • Q1 deliveries came in at 336,681 units, down from expectations of ~380,000 units, with Europe notably soft. Management’s commentary on demand will be critical.
       

  1. Margin Performance
     
    • Gross margins (ex‑credits) have been under scrutiny as Tesla ramps new factories. Any stabilizing or improvement would reassure investors.
       
  2. Full Self‑Driving (FSD) & Robotics
     
    • Updates on FSD beta rollout and progress on the Optimus humanoid robot could influence long‑term growth perceptions.
       
  3. CEO Commentary
     
    • Elon Musk’s tone on production bottlenecks, political distractions, and strategy will move the needle. After Q4, analysts warned Musk’s “brand damage” was significant.
       
  4. 2025 Guidance
     
    • Tesla’s outlook for deliveries, capex, and new product introductions will shape sentiment for the next three quarters.
       

 

Bullish Case: A Positive Surprise

 

Bearish Concerns: Continued Pressures

Disclaimers and Limitations

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