Tesla (TSLA) Stock Price, Chart, Fundamentals & AI Forecast
Tesla is a vertically integrated battery electric vehicle automaker and developer of real world artificial intelligence software, which includes autonomous driving and humanoid robots... Show more
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2025 Earnings Recap: Beats on EPS Amid Annual Revenue Decline
Key Takeaways
- Tesla reported Q4 2025 revenue of $24.9 billion, slightly above estimates of $24.8 billion, but down 3% year-over-year.
- Adjusted EPS came in at $0.50, beating consensus expectations of $0.45, while GAAP EPS was $0.24.
- Automotive revenue fell 11% to $17.7 billion on 16% lower deliveries of 418,227 vehicles; energy storage revenue rose 25% to $3.8 billion.
- Full-year 2025 revenue declined 3% to $94.8 billion, marking the first annual drop, with GAAP net income down 46% to $3.8 billion.
- Gross margin expanded to 20.1% in Q4, up 386 basis points year-over-year, driven by energy segment strength.
- Company plans significant 2026 CapEx over $20 billion for AI, Optimus, and Cybercab production starting in H1.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings cap a challenging year marked by the first annual revenue decline in company history, driven by softening EV demand, intensified competition from BYD and others, and pricing pressures. Vehicle deliveries fell 9% to 1.64 million for the full year, reflecting production ramps for refreshed models and supply chain issues. However, the energy storage business hit record deployments of 46.7 GWh, up 49% year-over-year, highlighting diversification beyond autos. Investors scrutinize these results for signals on profitability recovery, autonomy progress, and execution on AI/robotics pivots amid CEO Elon Musk's broader empire-building, including a $2 billion xAI investment.
Earnings Expectations or Reported Results
Tesla released Q4 2025 results on January 28, 2026, after market close. Total revenue reached $24.9 billion, edging past LSEG consensus of $24.79 billion but down 3% from $25.7 billion in Q4 2024. Automotive revenue dropped 11% to $17.7 billion, impacted by 16% lower deliveries of 418,227 vehicles (Model 3/Y: 406,585). Regulatory credits contributed $542 million. Energy generation and storage revenue surged 25% to $3.8 billion, with 14.2 GWh deployed. Gross profit rose 20% to $5.0 billion, yielding a 20.1% margin, up from 16.3% a year ago. Operating expenses climbed 39% to $3.6 billion on AI/R&D spend. GAAP net income fell 61% to $840 million ($0.24 EPS), while non-GAAP EPS was $0.50, topping $0.45 estimates. Free cash flow was $1.4 billion.
AI Trading Bot Perspective
The AAPL, GOOG, NVDA, TSLA, MSFT, SOXL, SOXS, QID, QLD - AI Trading Agent, 15min from Tickeron applies AI-driven pattern recognition to trade a basket of leading tech and leveraged ETF tickers, including TSLA. Operating on 15-minute timeframes, it employs swing trading strategies focused on momentum signals, volatility breakouts, and trend continuations across these high-beta assets. The bot aims to capitalize on short-term intraday and multi-day moves in volatile sectors like semiconductors, big tech, and EVs. Historical performance shows adaptability to market regimes, with backtested edges in trending environments, though results vary by conditions. Explore its live trading results and parameters to see how it handles TSLA's post-earnings volatility.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
TSLA shares rose about 2% in extended trading post-release, reflecting relief over the EPS beat and margin expansion despite topline weakness. Sentiment pivoted toward optimism on energy growth and AI catalysts, though concerns linger over auto demand softness and rising op-ex. Pre-earnings, positioning was cautious amid delivery misses; the results tempered fears but highlighted execution risks on new products.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Following Q4, Tesla emphasized 2026 as a ramp year for AI and robotics, with vehicle volume growth hinging on factory utilization, supply chains, and demand. No specific delivery targets were given, but focus shifts to Cybercab and Tesla Semi volume production in H1 2026, alongside Optimus Gen 3 unveiling in Q1 and mass production lines targeting 1 million units annually by year-end. Energy storage backlogs remain strong, with Megapack 3/Megablock launches and six new lines across vehicles, robots, and batteries. CapEx will exceed $20 billion, doubling prior levels for AI compute, autonomy infrastructure, and in-house semiconductors (TerraFab). Margins face headwinds from competition, tariffs, and policy uncertainty but could benefit from FSD subscriptions (now monthly-only, 1.1 million active) and fleet-based AI profits. Investors should track Q1 vehicle/energy deployments, FSD adoption/regulatory approvals for unsupervised Robotaxi expansion (Austin, Dallas, etc.), Optimus scaling, xAI investment close, and Model S/X production wind-down impact. Broader EV market dynamics, China competition, and macro demand signals will shape trajectory.
TSLA sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
On February 09, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for TSLA moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In of the 47 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSLA advanced for three days, in of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TSLA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSLA as a result. In of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TSLA moved below its 50-day moving average on January 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSLA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on January 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSLA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for TSLA entered a downward trend on February 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSLA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TSLA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (19.417) is normal, around the industry mean (4.027). P/E Ratio (393.713) is within average values for comparable stocks, (286.563). TSLA's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.896) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.912). TSLA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.043). P/S Ratio (15.823) is also within normal values, averaging (11.629).
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a manufacturer of electric sports cars
Industry MotorVehicles