Advertisement
EBS vs SIGA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) vs. SIGA Technologies (SIGA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EBS is a diversified biopharmaceutical firm anchored by medical countermeasures (MCM) and the NARCAN naloxone franchise, while SIGA is a more concentrated antiviral specialist built around TPOXX.
- Both companies rely heavily on government and international procurement, but EBS has a broader, more diversified revenue base than SIGA.
- EBS swung to full-year 2025 profitability and expanded margins sharply, even as revenue declined year over year.
- SIGA remains debt-free with a strong cash position but posted a steep fourth-quarter revenue drop and faces European regulatory uncertainty over mpox.
- Relative performance reflects two distinct profiles: an improving turnaround story at EBS versus lumpy, contract-driven earnings at SIGA.
Introduction
Investors in biodefense and public-health names often compare EBS (Emergent BioSolutions) and SIGA (SIGA Technologies) because both generate meaningful revenue from government stockpiling of medical countermeasures against biological threats. Yet the two companies occupy different positions in the sector. Emergent BioSolutions operates a diversified portfolio spanning smallpox, anthrax, and botulism countermeasures plus the NARCAN naloxone franchise, while SIGA Technologies is anchored by a single flagship antiviral, TPOXX. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors assessing how market positioning, growth drivers, and recent momentum differ between a recovering diversified biopharma and a focused, cash-rich specialty player.
EBS Overview and Recent Performance
Emergent BioSolutions develops and manufactures medical countermeasures (MCM, or products designed to respond to biological threats) and maintains a market-leading position in naloxone through NARCAN Nasal Spray. In recent weeks, the company has emphasized a multi-year transformation focused on deleveraging, cost discipline, and margin expansion. For full-year 2025, EBS reported total revenue of roughly $743 million, a decline from about $1.04 billion in 2024, but swung to net income of approximately $53 million from a prior-year loss. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin nearly doubled to about 28%, and net leverage improved materially, from roughly 3.3x to about 1.9x.
Recent market activity has been shaped by mixed signals: fourth-quarter revenue came in below analyst expectations, but investors focused on the improving profitability profile and healthy liquidity. The company also secured a series of MCM contract awards and options, expanded international orders, and executed share repurchases and voluntary debt paydown, all of which have supported sentiment around its turnaround narrative.
SIGA Overview and Recent Performance
SIGA Technologies is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company focused on orthopoxviruses, with its flagship product TPOXX (tecovirimat) approved in the U.S. for the treatment of smallpox. The company's revenue is highly concentrated in government and international procurement, which creates notable quarter-to-quarter variability. For full-year 2025, SIGA reported total revenue of roughly $94.6 million, down from about $138.7 million in 2024, with net income declining to approximately $23.3 million from $59.2 million.
Recent performance has been pressured by a steep fourth-quarter revenue drop and a net loss for that period, as well as European regulatory scrutiny. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) initiated a reassessment of tecovirimat after clinical trials raised questions about its effectiveness against mpox, and the company expects the mpox indication may be withdrawn while smallpox indications are maintained. On a more positive note, SIGA holds a debt-free balance sheet with roughly $172 million in cash, received a $13 million international order for oral TPOXX, and continues to pursue new procurement contracts.
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a data-driven edge in this type of stock comparison, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of its most relevant automated strategies. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only those best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this featured section. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, historical performance, and the specific set of tickers they trade, giving users access to a broad range of statistical profiles and approaches. For example, many bots publish metrics such as win rate, trade frequency, and profit factor, helping traders evaluate consistency and risk. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to see which automated strategies are currently aligned with market conditions.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is diversification versus concentration. EBS spans multiple countermeasure categories and a commercial naloxone franchise, which smooths revenue somewhat across products, though it still depends heavily on government contracts. SIGA, by contrast, is largely a single-product story in TPOXX, making its results highly sensitive to procurement timing and regulatory decisions.
Growth drivers also differ. Emergent BioSolutions is focused on margin expansion, debt reduction, and international MCM demand, while SIGA's outlook hinges on securing new U.S. and international TPOXX orders and resolving European regulatory questions. On financial stability, SIGA carries no debt and substantial cash, whereas Emergent has been actively deleveraging from a higher base. Market sentiment reflects these dynamics: Emergent is often viewed through a turnaround lens, while SIGA is seen as a cash-rich but lumpy, contract-dependent operator. Both face headline-driven volatility tied to biosecurity news and government procurement cycles.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor EBS in the current environment. Emergent BioSolutions presents a more consistent improvement trajectory, with expanding margins, falling leverage, and a diversified revenue base that reduces single-contract dependence. SIGA's debt-free balance sheet and cash reserves are strengths, but its concentrated TPOXX franchise and pending European regulatory decision introduce greater near-term uncertainty. That said, both names carry meaningful headline and procurement risk, so any AI-driven preference is probabilistic rather than definitive and should be weighed alongside each company's evolving fundamentals.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is EBS is a StrongBuy and SIGA is a Hold.
EBS in +4.27% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on November 09, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where EBS advanced for three days, in 214 of 266 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 60 cases where EBS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EBS as a result. In 81 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EBS turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 83%.
EBS moved below its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for EBS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 17 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EBS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The Aroon Indicator for EBS entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 39 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.910) is normal, around the industry mean (6.379). P/E Ratio (-1.782) is within average values for comparable stocks, (0.548). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (2.202). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.062) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.493) is also within normal values, averaging (183.387).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EBS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. EBS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
SIGA in +9.76% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on November 09, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where SIGA advanced for three days, in 229 of 290 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 57 cases where SIGA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SIGA just turned positive on November 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where SIGA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
SIGA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SIGA as a result. In 75 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
SIGA moved below its 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SIGA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SIGA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator for SIGA entered a downward trend on November 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 1 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.348) is normal, around the industry mean (6.379). SIGA has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-103.333) as compared to the industry average of (0.548). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.020) is also within normal values, averaging (2.202). SIGA's Dividend Yield (0.774) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.062). P/S Ratio (4.161) is also within normal values, averaging (183.387).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SIGA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SIGA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
EBS | SIGA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 39 Fair valued | 1 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 97 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 98 | 100 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SIGA's Valuation (1) in the Pharmaceuticals Other industry is somewhat better than the same rating for EBS (39) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that SIGA’s stock grew somewhat faster than EBS’s over the last 12 months.
SIGA's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Pharmaceuticals Other industry is in the same range as EBS (100) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that SIGA’s stock grew similarly to EBS’s over the last 12 months.
SIGA's SMR Rating (91) in the Pharmaceuticals Other industry is in the same range as EBS (97) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that SIGA’s stock grew similarly to EBS’s over the last 12 months.
SIGA's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Pharmaceuticals Other industry is in the same range as EBS (60) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that SIGA’s stock grew similarly to EBS’s over the last 12 months.
EBS's P/E Growth Rating (98) in the Biotechnology industry is in the same range as SIGA (100) in the Pharmaceuticals Other industry. This means that EBS’s stock grew similarly to SIGA’s over the last 12 months.
| EBS | SIGA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 83% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 86% | 10 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EBS’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SIGA’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- EBS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SIGA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EBS’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SIGA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EBS’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
- SIGA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
EBS (@Pharmaceuticals: Generic) experienced а -3.20% price change this week, while SIGA (@Pharmaceuticals: Generic) price change was +0.64% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Generic industry was -0.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.54%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.31%.
Reported Earning Dates
EBS is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Pharmaceuticals: Generic (-0.20% weekly)A generic drug contains the same chemical substance as a drug that was originally protected by patents. Generic drugs are generally sold at cheaper price points, compared to name-brand pharmaceuticals, after patents for the more expensive drugs lapse. The generic drug industry has created a major market, thanks to the lower pricing. According to the Center for Justice and Democracy at New York Law School, 80 percent of all drugs prescribed are generic, and generic drugs are chosen 94 percent of the time when they are available. But their manufacturers must be able to prove to the FDA that they can be effective substitutes for the original drugs. Some of the major generic drug makers include Zoetis, Inc., Allergan plc and Mylan N.V.
Advertisement
EBS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EBS has been loosely correlated with AMPH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 41% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EBS jumps, then AMPH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To EBS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBS | 100% | -0.82% | ||
| AMPH - EBS | 41% Loosely correlated | -1.09% | ||
| SIGA - EBS | 40% Loosely correlated | -3.99% | ||
| COLL - EBS | 40% Loosely correlated | -0.97% | ||
| XERS - EBS | 33% Loosely correlated | -0.19% | ||
| VTRS - EBS | 32% Poorly correlated | +1.76% | ||
More | ||||
SIGA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SIGA has been loosely correlated with EBS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 34% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SIGA jumps, then EBS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SIGA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGA | 100% | -3.99% | ||
| EBS - SIGA | 34% Loosely correlated | -0.82% | ||
| ETON - SIGA | 30% Poorly correlated | +4.96% | ||
| AMRX - SIGA | 30% Poorly correlated | +0.47% | ||
| AYTU - SIGA | 28% Poorly correlated | +1.12% | ||
| KMDA - SIGA | 27% Poorly correlated | +5.06% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| ILS | 20.36 | 0.01 | +0.05% |
| Brookmont Catastrophic Bond ETF | |||
| DRUP | 66.49 | N/A | N/A |
| GraniteShares Nasdaq Select Disruptors ETF (DRUP) | |||
| BSGR | 25.01 | -0.02 | -0.08% |
| Invesco BulletShares 2027 Treasury Bond ETF (BSGR) | |||
| FPE | 17.12 | -0.22 | -1.27% |
| First Trust Preferred Securities & Income ETF (FPE) | |||
| NAIL | 35.52 | -3.86 | -9.80% |
| Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF (NAIL) | |||