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FERG vs WSO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) vs. Watsco (WSO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both FERG and WSO are North American distribution leaders, but they serve different end markets: Ferguson spans plumbing, HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), waterworks, and PVF (pipes, valves, and fittings), while Watsco is focused on HVAC/R (HVAC and refrigeration).
- FERG reported net sales growth of 3.6% and adjusted operating profit growth of 8.4% in its most recent quarter, with margin expansion and a fresh $2.0 billion share-repurchase authorization.
- WSO posted record quarterly revenue but saw gross margin compress and GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings per share come in below analyst estimates, weighing on sentiment.
- Analyst consensus is a "Buy" for FERG versus a "Hold" for WSO, reflecting a stronger relative momentum and margin trajectory at Ferguson.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: FERG is the ticker of choice between the two in the current market environment.
- For more detail, explore FERG Major News and FERG Today's Price Move, along with WSO Major News and WSO Today's Price Move.
- Discover AI-driven stock selection tools by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors evaluating industrial distributors often weigh scale, end-market diversification, and capital-return discipline. FERG (Ferguson Enterprises) and WSO (Watsco) are two of the largest names in this space, yet their market positioning and recent performance have diverged. Ferguson operates across a broad portfolio of plumbing, HVAC, waterworks, and industrial products, while Watsco concentrates on HVAC/R distribution. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders seeking to understand how differing business models, growth drivers, and recent momentum shape relative performance and market positioning.
FERG Overview and Recent Performance
Ferguson Enterprises is North America's largest value-added distributor of essential water and air solutions, serving specialized professionals across roughly $340 billion in residential and non-residential construction markets. With annual sales of about $31.3 billion, approximately 35,000 associates, and more than 1,700 locations, the company distributes plumbing, HVAC, appliances, lighting, and PVF products, among others.
In recent market activity, FERG has demonstrated relatively steady execution. Its most recent quarter showed net sales up 3.6% year over year and adjusted operating profit up 8.4%, aided by strength in non-residential and large capital projects even as residential markets remained subdued. The company also announced a $2.0 billion share-repurchase authorization and a $0.89 quarterly dividend, and it has moved to consolidate its listing on the NYSE by canceling its secondary London listing. These capital-return and simplification measures, combined with margin improvement, have supported a generally constructive sentiment among analysts, who carry a consensus "Buy" rating on the stock.
WSO Overview and Recent Performance
Watsco is the largest distributor of HVAC/R equipment and related parts and supplies in North America, holding roughly 13% of a highly fragmented market. The company serves more than 120,000 contractors and dealers, with the majority of revenue tied to the residential replacement market across Sun Belt states, alongside commercial refrigeration and a growing presence in Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
Recent weeks have been more mixed for WSO. The company reported record quarterly revenue of about $2.22 billion, up 7.4% year over year, but gross margin compressed by roughly 110 basis points and GAAP earnings per share came in below analyst expectations, reflecting higher operating costs and a shifting customer mix. The company has continued its "buy and build" acquisition strategy, adding distributors such as Jackson Supply and The Granite Group, which are expected to expand annual revenue by about 10%. Despite these growth initiatives, margin pressure and an earnings miss have led analysts to hold a consensus "Hold" rating, with sentiment more cautious than for Ferguson in the near term.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is diversification versus focus. FERG operates a broad, multi-category distribution platform spanning plumbing, HVAC, waterworks, and industrial products, which helps balance exposure across construction cycles. WSO is a more concentrated HVAC/R pure play, giving it higher sensitivity to weather-driven demand, refrigerant transitions, and residential replacement cycles.
Growth drivers also differ. Ferguson has leaned on non-residential and large capital projects, including data-center-related demand, while steadily raising margins and returning capital through buybacks and dividends. Watsco is betting on digital platforms, AI-driven tools, and acquisitions to consolidate a fragmented market, though its recent margin compression has tempered near-term momentum.
On risk, both face housing and interest-rate sensitivity, but Watsco's narrower focus and recent earnings miss introduce greater short-term volatility, while Ferguson's scale and diversified end markets offer comparatively more stable positioning. Sentiment reflects this: a "Buy" consensus and margin expansion for FERG versus a "Hold" consensus and margin pressure for WSO.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin trajectory, analyst positioning, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI would currently favor FERG over WSO. Ferguson has shown steadier relative performance, improving profitability, a more favorable consensus rating, and clearer capital-return catalysts, while Watsco is contending with margin compression and an earnings miss despite solid revenue growth. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting current market conditions and the relative positioning of the two stocks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FERG is a Buy and WSO is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for FERG turns positive, indicating new upward trend
FERG saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 60 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
FERG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for FERG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +4.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FERG advanced for three days, in 223 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 176 of 313 cases where FERG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FERG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
FERG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. FERG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.549) is normal, around the industry mean (4.173). P/E Ratio (24.443) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-0.567). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.426) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.442) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.351) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
WSO in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026
The 10-day moving average for WSO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WSO as a result. In 59 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WSO just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where WSO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
WSO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.52% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WSO advanced for three days, in 238 of 348 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 123 of 186 cases where WSO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WSO moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 73%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 36 of 55 cases where WSO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WSO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
WSO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. WSO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.294) is normal, around the industry mean (4.173). P/E Ratio (26.686) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-0.567). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.199) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.042) settles around the average of (0.442) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.587) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. WSO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock worse than average.
FERG | WSO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 78 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 57 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 45 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WSO's Valuation (68) in the Building Products industry is in the same range as FERG (76) in the null industry. This means that WSO’s stock grew similarly to FERG’s over the last 12 months.
FERG's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WSO (78) in the Building Products industry. This means that FERG’s stock grew somewhat faster than WSO’s over the last 12 months.
FERG's SMR Rating (31) in the null industry is in the same range as WSO (55) in the Building Products industry. This means that FERG’s stock grew similarly to WSO’s over the last 12 months.
FERG's Price Growth Rating (50) in the null industry is in the same range as WSO (58) in the Building Products industry. This means that FERG’s stock grew similarly to WSO’s over the last 12 months.
FERG's P/E Growth Rating (56) in the null industry is in the same range as WSO (57) in the Building Products industry. This means that FERG’s stock grew similarly to WSO’s over the last 12 months.
| FERG | WSO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 58% | 8 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 6 days ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FERG’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while WSO’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- FERG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WSO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FERG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WSO’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FERG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WSO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FERG (@Electronics Distributors) experienced а +5.41% price change this week, while WSO (@Electronics Distributors) price change was +3.54% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronics Distributors industry was +2.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.11%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.26%.
Reported Earning Dates
FERG is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
WSO is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronics Distributors (+2.60% weekly)Electronics distributors are companies that are involved in distribution of one or more of the following: electronic components, computer products/ peripherals and software products & services. Several electronics distributors are also becoming the point of contact for technical/pre- & post-sale support in many cases, in an attempt to bolster their position in the market. Tariffs and/or cross-border trade barriers are some of the potential threats to the electronics supply chain, but that could also potentially lead to re-directing to markets where tariffs/restrictions are lower depending on demand. The industry is also vulnerable in the event of economic slowdowns. Arrow Electronics, Inc., SYNNEX Corporation and Versum Materials, Inc. are some of the major electronics distributors in the U.S.
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FERG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FERG has been loosely correlated with CNM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FERG jumps, then CNM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FERG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FERG | 100% | -0.07% | ||
| CNM - FERG | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.62% | ||
| WSO - FERG | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.59% | ||
| AIT - FERG | 54% Loosely correlated | +2.23% | ||
| WCC - FERG | 53% Loosely correlated | +4.78% | ||
| SITE - FERG | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.52% | ||
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WSO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WSO has been loosely correlated with SITE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WSO jumps, then SITE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WSO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSO | 100% | -1.59% | ||
| SITE - WSO | 55% Loosely correlated | -2.52% | ||
| FERG - WSO | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| QXO - WSO | 49% Loosely correlated | +0.26% | ||
| CNM - WSO | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.62% | ||
| BXC - WSO | 42% Loosely correlated | -7.85% | ||
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