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FSTA vs XLP
Which ETF would AI Choose? Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) vs. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP)
Key Takeaways
- FSTA tracks the MSCI USA IMI Consumer Staples 25/50 Index, capturing roughly 100 large-, mid-, and small-cap consumer staples names; XLP tracks the Consumer Staples Select Sector Index, limited to about 38 large-cap S&P 500 constituents.
- Both funds are passively managed with an identical 0.08% net expense ratio, so cost is not a differentiator between the two.
- Both are heavily weighted to household names, but FSTA offers broader company coverage and mid/small-cap exposure, while XLP is a purer large-cap, mega-cap-dominated vehicle.
- Liquidity differs materially: XLP is far larger in assets under management (AUM, meaning total fund assets), giving it deeper trading volume, whereas FSTA is smaller and moderately less liquid.
- Risk profiles are similar and defensive, with both funds carrying a beta well below 1.0 relative to the broader market.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: FSTA — broader diversification across the full market-cap spectrum and comparable cost give it a structural edge over XLP.
Introduction
Consumer staples ETFs are a cornerstone of defensive equity allocation, and FSTA and XLP are two of the most widely used ways to access the sector. Although they compete directly for the same investor capital, they are built on different index philosophies: one spans the entire market-capitalization spectrum, while the other confines itself to large-cap S&P 500 names. In an environment where investors are weighing inflation, consumer resilience, and interest-rate uncertainty, understanding the structural differences between these two funds is essential for making an informed ETF comparison.
Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) Overview
FSTA is a passively managed fund launched in October 2013 that seeks to track the MSCI USA IMI Consumer Staples 25/50 Index. The "IMI" designation means the index covers the investable market — large, mid, and small caps — which is why the fund holds roughly 100 stocks, considerably more than many staples peers. Its top holdings are WMT (Walmart), COST (Costco Wholesale), PG (Procter & Gamble), KO (Coca-Cola), and PEP (PepsiCo). The portfolio is nearly 100% consumer staples, with a small residual in consumer cyclical names. Its expense ratio is 0.08%, and it uses a market-cap-weighted, non-diversified structure with periodic index rebalancing.
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) Overview
XLP, launched in December 1998, is one of the oldest and largest consumer staples ETFs. It employs a replication strategy to track the Consumer Staples Select Sector Index, which consists solely of consumer staples companies classified within the S&P 500. As a result, it holds only about 38 large-cap stocks, making it more concentrated than FSTA at the index-construction level. Its largest positions include WMT, COST, PG, KO, PM (Philip Morris International), MDLZ (Mondelez International), and MO (Altria Group). Its expense ratio is 0.08%, and its much larger asset base supports deeper liquidity and tighter trading spreads.
Industry and Thematic Backdrop
Both funds sit squarely in the consumer staples sector, a group prized for resilient, nondiscretionary demand for food, beverages, household products, and tobacco. Recent market cycles have highlighted several themes: persistent input-cost inflation and the pricing power of branded consumer companies, the ongoing shift toward value-conscious retail led by WMT and COST, and a rotation toward defensive sectors as investors weigh slowing economic growth and uncertain interest-rate policy. Earnings momentum among large-cap retailers has supported sector leaders, while beverage and packaged-food names have benefited from steady cash flows and dividend growth. Key risks include softening consumer spending, margin pressure, and regulatory scrutiny of tobacco and food pricing.
Performance and Positioning Comparison
Over recent weeks and months, both FSTA and XLP have moved largely in tandem, reflecting their shared exposure to the same mega-cap staples leaders. The relative performance gap between the two has been modest, driven primarily by weighting differences rather than underlying strategy. FSTA's inclusion of mid- and small-cap names has occasionally added diversification-driven variance, while XLP's deep concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents has kept it tightly aligned with large-cap sector momentum. Both funds carry a beta near 0.5, underscoring their defensive, lower-volatility character compared with the broader equity market.
AI Screener
Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of securities using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener is designed to surface trade ideas, trending names, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to refine your sector exposure and identify opportunities aligned with your strategy.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable structural factors, Tickeron's AI would currently favor FSTA. While both funds share the same 0.08% expense ratio and a defensive large-cap core, FSTA's broader investable-market approach — spanning roughly 100 holdings across large, mid, and small caps — provides more complete sector diversification than XLP's 38-stock, large-cap-only portfolio. Combined with comparable cost efficiency and a similar low-beta risk profile, FSTA's wider net of holdings offers a marginally more robust structural foundation for investors seeking diversified consumer staples exposure. As with any allocation decision, this assessment reflects current positioning rather than a guarantee of future performance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FSTA is a StrongBuy and XLP is a Hold.
FSTA's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FSTA turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where FSTA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FSTA as a result. In 76 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
FSTA moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for FSTA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +3.34% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FSTA advanced for three days, in 249 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 234 of 316 cases where FSTA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for FSTA moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 75%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FSTA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
FSTA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
XLP's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLP turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where XLP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLP as a result. In 70 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
XLP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XLP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +3.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLP advanced for three days, in 254 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 239 of 309 cases where XLP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XLP moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 30 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
XLP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
| FSTA | XLP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 87% | 4 days ago 87% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 78% | 8 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 77% |
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XLP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XLP has been closely correlated with CL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XLP jumps, then CL could also see price increases.