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KEY vs RF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. Regions Financial Corporation (RF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both KEY and RF reported robust Q1 2026 earnings beats, driven by net interest income (NII, revenue from interest-earning assets minus interest expenses) growth and controlled expenses.
- RF demonstrates stronger profitability with TTM EPS of $2.41 and ROE (return on equity, a measure of profit generated from shareholders' equity) of 11.90%, compared to KEY's $1.63 EPS and 9.97% ROE.
- Dividend yields are comparable at approximately 3.7% for both, supporting income-focused strategies in a high-rate environment.
- KEY leads YTD performance with 7.45% gains versus RF's 5.54%, reflecting resilient momentum.
- Recent monthly returns favor RF at +11.45% over KEY's +8.15%, amid positive post-earnings sentiment.
- Valuation metrics show RF trading at a lower P/E of 11.76 versus KEY's 13.47.
Introduction
KeyCorp (KEY) and Regions Financial Corporation (RF) are prominent mid-cap regional banks navigating a dynamic interest rate landscape and economic recovery. This stock comparison highlights their relative performance, financial health, and market positioning, aiding traders seeking sector momentum plays and long-term investors evaluating banking exposure. With similar market caps around $24 billion and shared sensitivities to loan growth, deposit costs, and credit quality, insights into recent trends help assess trade-offs in valuation, growth potential, and risk amid shifting monetary policy. Both stocks have benefited from recent earnings strength, making them relevant for diversified portfolios focused on regional banking stability and dividend income.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp (KEY), headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, operates as a diversified regional bank with a focus on commercial banking, consumer lending, and investment services across the Midwest and Northeast. In recent market activity, KEY stock has traded around $22, near its 52-week high of $23.35, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 7.45%. Q1 2026 results showcased net income of $486 million, up 33% year-over-year, with EPS of $0.44 beating estimates and revenue rising 10% to $1.95 billion on 11% NII growth. Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE, a profitability metric excluding intangibles) exceeded 13%, bolstered by a $1 billion share buyback announcement and the acquisition of Clearwater UK to expand advisory services. Sentiment has been positive on improved credit metrics and fee income, though shares dipped slightly in the recent week amid broader sector rotation.
RF Overview and Recent Performance
Regions Financial Corporation (RF), based in Birmingham, Alabama, provides retail and commercial banking primarily in the Southeast, with emphasis on loans, deposits, and wealth management. Trading near $28 with a 52-week range of $19.93 to $31.53, RF has seen YTD returns of 5.54%. Recent quarters highlighted Q1 2026 net income of $539 million and adjusted EPS of $0.62, surpassing forecasts, supported by 4.5% NII growth to $1.25 billion and solid loan expansion. CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1, a key regulatory capital measure) stood at 10.7%, enabling $401 million in repurchases. Positive developments include new treasury management tools like ReimbursePro, enhancing fee income potential. Market sentiment reflects optimism on credit quality and deposit stability, with monthly gains outpacing peers in recent weeks.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page showcases the platform's top AI-powered trading bots, curated from a library of 351 total bots that trade thousands of tickers across diverse strategies. Only 25 elite performers, selected based on adaptability to current market conditions like volatility and sector rotations, appear in this dynamic section. These bots vary widely in approach—short-term signal agents for day trading, virtual agents for pattern recognition, and brokerage agents for automated execution—delivering metrics such as win rates above 60%, profit factors exceeding 1.5, and average returns from 10-30% annually in backtests. Timeframes range from intraday to multi-month holds, catering to scalpers, swing traders, and investors. No bots specifically highlight KEY or RF, but many target financials. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to identify tools aligning with regional bank opportunities.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Both KEY and RF pursue similar business models as regional banks, emphasizing commercial loans, deposits, and fee generation, but diverge geographically—KEY in the Northeast/Midwest versus RF's Southeast footprint—affecting exposure to regional economic cycles. Growth drivers include NII expansion for both, though RF shows stronger loan momentum and higher ROTCE targets. Recent momentum tilts to RF monthly, while KEY edges YTD. Risk factors like NCOs (net charge-offs, loan losses) remain low, with comparable betas around 1.05 indicating market-aligned volatility. Sector exposure is pure-play banking, but KEY's M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity adds diversification potential versus RF's product innovation focus. Market sentiment favors value in RF's lower P/E and ROE edge, contrasting KEY's buyback-driven upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently lean toward RF with moderate confidence, citing superior TTM EPS, ROE, CET1 stability, and valuation at a discounted P/E amid consistent loan growth and capital returns. While KEY offers compelling momentum and ROTCE trajectory, RF's relative positioning suggests higher probability of outperformance in the near term, barring shifts in rates or credit conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a Buy and RF is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileRF’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RF’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RF’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а -1.62% price change this week, while RF (@Regional Banks) price change was -3.00% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.59%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.59%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Jul 21, 2026.
RF is expected to report earnings on Jul 17, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.59% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| KEY | RF | KEY / RF | |
| Capitalization | 23.1B | 22.9B | 101% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 4.268 | -0.045 | -9,585% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.07 | 11.13 | 117% |
| Revenue | 7.47B | 7.62B | 98% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 3.11B | - |
| Total Debt | 17B | 5.14B | 331% |
KEY | RF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 75 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 66 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 46 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 8 | 8 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 45 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RF's Valuation (66) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (78). This means that RF’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
RF's Profit vs Risk Rating (46) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (77). This means that RF’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
RF's SMR Rating (8) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (8). This means that RF’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as RF (51). This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to RF’s over the last 12 months.
RF's P/E Growth Rating (45) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (87). This means that RF’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | RF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 62% | 7 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 57% |
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KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with CFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then CFG could also see price increases.
RF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RF has been closely correlated with KEY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RF jumps, then KEY could also see price increases.