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KEY vs USB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. U.S. Bancorp (USB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale and footprint: U.S. Bancorp is a much larger, more diversified institution than KeyCorp, with a nationwide payments and merchant-services business versus KeyCorp's concentrated regional commercial-banking model.
- Recent momentum: Both banks have beaten earnings estimates in recent quarters, but USB has posted stronger year-to-date share-price gains and carries more favorable analyst ratings.
- Profitability gap: U.S. Bancorp's return on average tangible common equity (ROTCE, a key measure of bank profitability) has recently run near the high-teens, ahead of KeyCorp's improving but lower level.
- Rate sensitivity: KeyCorp is more leveraged to commercial lending and rising net interest income (NII), giving it higher upside potential but also more sensitivity to credit and rate cycles.
- Market positioning: USB's diversified fee income and cost discipline contrast with KEY's growth-oriented loan expansion and balance-sheet repositioning strategy.
Introduction
Regional and super-regional banks occupy a distinct niche in equity markets, blending rate-cycle exposure with credit risk and fee-driven growth. This stock comparison examines KeyCorp (KEY) and U.S. Bancorp (USB), two U.S. banking franchises with very different profiles. KEY is a Cleveland-based regional lender concentrated in commercial and middle-market banking across 15 states, while USB is a Minneapolis-based super-regional with a nationwide payments platform spanning 26 states. Investors weighing relative performance, market positioning, and risk-adjusted return potential may find this head-to-head useful, particularly given how each institution has responded to the current interest-rate and credit environment.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp (KEY) is a Cleveland, Ohio-based financial services company serving individuals and businesses across 15 states, with a heavy emphasis on commercial and middle-market lending, investment banking, commercial payments, and wealth management. In recent market activity, KEY has trended higher but with notable volatility, reflecting both its commercial-loan momentum and its sensitivity to economic conditions.
In its most recent quarterly results, KeyCorp reported earnings of $0.44 per diluted share, up roughly 26% year over year, driven by stronger net interest income (NII, the spread between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits) and a widening net interest margin (NIM, which measures that spread as a percentage of earning assets) to 2.89%. Management raised its full-year revenue and loan-growth guidance, citing broad commercial loan demand and a favorable balance-sheet mix shift into higher-yielding loans. KeyCorp also expanded internationally through the acquisition of a UK corporate-finance advisory business. Offsetting these positives, credit costs and non-performing assets edged higher, and the bank's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio, a regulatory measure of core capital strength, declined modestly from year-earlier levels.
USB Overview and Recent Performance
U.S. Bancorp (USB) is a Minneapolis-based super-regional bank and one of the largest U.S. lenders, operating across 26 states with a diversified mix of consumer banking, corporate and commercial banking, wealth management, and a substantial payments and merchant-acquiring business. In recent weeks, USB shares have outperformed the broader market, supported by consistent earnings beats and an increasingly favorable analyst consensus.
In its latest quarter, USB reported earnings of $1.35 per share, above consensus estimates, on revenue that rose roughly 10% year over year to $7.71 billion. Fee income climbed about 13% and reached 44% of total revenue, underscoring the bank's diversified, less rate-dependent model. Management raised full-year revenue guidance and highlighted an efficiency ratio near 57%, reflecting ongoing cost discipline, while ROTCE reached roughly 18.7%. The bank has also pursued growth initiatives, including an acquisition in the payments space, a small-business lending partnership, and a live pilot transaction using its proprietary U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin. Credit quality remained steady, with a net charge-off ratio near 0.5%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
These two franchises diverge most sharply on business model and scale. U.S. Bancorp (USB) operates a far larger balance sheet and a national payments network, producing a steadier, more diversified revenue stream that is less dependent on the direction of interest rates. KeyCorp (KEY) is comparatively smaller and more commercially focused, which can translate into faster loan growth and stronger NII expansion when the economy is healthy, but also greater sensitivity to credit deterioration.
On growth drivers, KEY is leaning into commercial and industrial lending and middle-market investment banking, while USB is expanding through payments acquisitions, small-business lending, and emerging technology such as stablecoin-based settlement. From a momentum standpoint, USB has delivered stronger year-to-date share-price appreciation and more favorable analyst sentiment, while KEY has outperformed on earnings growth rates and offers a higher beta, meaning it tends to move more sharply with the market.
Risk factors also differ. KEY carries elevated credit-cost trends and a modestly lower CET1 buffer, whereas USB's primary watch items are expense discipline and the pace of integration of recent acquisitions. Sector exposure is broadly similar, but USB's fee-heavy mix provides a cushion against NIM pressure that KEY does not possess to the same degree.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, earnings reliability, cost discipline, and the diversification of revenue, Tickeron's AI would likely favor U.S. Bancorp (USB) in the current environment. USB's higher ROTCE, more balanced fee income, stronger analyst positioning, and steadier credit profile suggest greater stability and a clearer catalyst path. KeyCorp (KEY) presents a higher-growth, higher-beta alternative that could outperform in a sustained economic upswing, but its greater rate and credit sensitivity introduces additional uncertainty. The AI's preference is therefore probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting USB's more consistent risk-adjusted positioning relative to KEY's more cyclical profile.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a Hold and USB is a Hold.
KEY | USB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 70 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 7 | 4 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | 37 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 42 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (25) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as USB (39). This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to USB’s over the last 12 months.
USB's Profit vs Risk Rating (70) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (78). This means that USB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
USB's SMR Rating (4) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (7). This means that USB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
USB's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (60). This means that USB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
USB's P/E Growth Rating (37) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (88). This means that USB’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | USB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 61% | 29 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 11 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while USB’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- USB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while USB’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- USB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а +0.25% price change this week, while USB (@Regional Banks) price change was -0.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -1.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.76%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.68%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
USB is expected to report earnings on Oct 15, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-1.53% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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USB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, USB has been closely correlated with PNC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if USB jumps, then PNC could also see price increases.