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KEY vs USB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. U.S. Bancorp (USB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KEY (KeyCorp) is a Cleveland-based regional bank showing a sharp earnings recovery, while USB (U.S. Bancorp) is a larger, more diversified "super-regional" financial institution with a strong fee-income engine.
- Both banks beat earnings estimates in their most recent quarter, but USB reported roughly 18.4% return on tangible common equity versus KeyCorp's low-teens figure, reflecting different profitability profiles.
- KEY has faced activist investor pressure and has committed to organic growth and buybacks, while USB is expanding through the BTIG acquisition and a "payments-first" strategy.
- Scale differs sharply: USB reported average deposits near $515 billion, versus KeyCorp's roughly $151 billion.
- Sentiment has been mixed for both, with shares slipping on earnings days despite beats, suggesting the market is focused on credit provisions and forward guidance.
Introduction
KeyCorp (KEY) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) are two well-known U.S. banking franchises that often attract the same pool of investors, yet they occupy different niches within the financial sector. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing a smaller regional bank turnaround story against a larger, fee-diversified super-regional. Because both are sensitive to interest rates, credit quality, and capital-market activity, their relative performance offers a useful lens on current market positioning in the banking group.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp is the Cleveland-based holding company for KeyBank National Association, serving retail, commercial, and wealth-management clients across the U.S. In recent weeks, the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $474 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, a notable swing from a loss in the year-ago period. Revenue surpassed $2 billion, up about 12% year over year on an adjusted basis, helped by higher net interest income (NII), which is the money a bank earns from lending and investments after paying deposit costs.
Management highlighted record assets under management (AUM, the total value of client assets the firm oversees) of $70 billion and strong investment-banking fees. Net interest margin (NIM), a key measure of lending profitability, expanded to 2.82%. However, a jump in the provision for credit losses weighed on the stock on earnings day. The company has also faced public pressure from activist investor HoldCo Asset Management, prompting management to rule out bank mergers (M&A, or mergers and acquisitions) and emphasize share repurchases and organic growth.
USB Overview and Recent Performance
U.S. Bancorp, headquartered in Minneapolis, is a much larger financial services holding company with a diversified mix of consumer banking, commercial lending, payments, and wealth-management businesses. In its most recent quarter, USB posted earnings of $1.26 per share on revenue of $7.37 billion, both ahead of consensus estimates. Full-year 2025 net revenue reached a record $28.7 billion.
A defining feature of USB is its fee-based model: fee income represented about 42% of total net revenue, driven by payments, trust and investment-management fees, and capital-markets activity. The bank reported return on tangible common equity (ROTCE, a measure of profitability against shareholder capital) of 18.4% and an efficiency ratio of 57.4%. Recent strategic moves include the pending acquisition of brokerage BTIG and continued investment in digital payments, positioning the firm for capital-markets expansion. Its fully integrated MUFG Union Bank acquisition has also supported deposit market share in California.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two names is scale and business mix. USB is roughly five times larger by deposits and generates a much higher proportion of revenue from fees, which tends to make its earnings less dependent on interest-rate swings. KEY, by contrast, is more reliant on spread income and is earlier in a profitability recovery, offering a different risk-reward profile.
Growth drivers also differ. USB is expanding through capital-markets and payments initiatives, including the BTIG deal and its Global Fund Services business. KEY is focusing on middle-market lending, investment banking, and wealth management, while returning capital through buybacks. On risk, both banks saw higher credit provisions in their latest quarters, but USB reported a modest net charge-off ratio, while KEY continues to manage asset-quality improvement after a prior-year loss. Market sentiment has been cautious on both, with shares giving back early gains after earnings despite beats, reflecting investor focus on credit trends and guidance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely assign a modest edge to USB in the current environment. The bank's larger scale, higher return on tangible common equity, diversified fee revenue, and steadier trend characteristics suggest relatively greater stability and momentum consistency. KEY, however, presents a stronger recovery and buyback catalyst profile that could appeal to a more aggressive, trend-following model. In probabilistic terms, the AI verdict favors USB for stability-oriented positioning, while acknowledging that KEY may offer higher-beta opportunity if its turnaround momentum is sustained.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a Hold and USB is a Hold.
KEY's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for KEY moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KEY as a result. In 58 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KEY just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where KEY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
KEY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KEY advanced for three days, in 177 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for KEY moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KEY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
KEY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for KEY entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 31 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. KEY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.300) is normal, around the industry mean (1.271). P/E Ratio (12.185) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.332) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.996) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KEY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
USB's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for USB moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on USB as a result. In 49 of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for USB just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where USB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +4.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where USB advanced for three days, in 176 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
USB moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where USB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
USB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for USB entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. USB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.531) is normal, around the industry mean (1.271). P/E Ratio (11.892) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.773) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.141) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. USB’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
KEY | USB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 49 Fair valued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 73 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 7 | 4 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 86 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 31 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (49) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as USB (68). This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to USB’s over the last 12 months.
USB's Profit vs Risk Rating (73) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (80). This means that USB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
USB's SMR Rating (4) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (7). This means that USB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
USB's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (48). This means that USB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
USB's P/E Growth Rating (29) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (86). This means that USB’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | USB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 9 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 70% | 11 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while USB’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- USB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while USB’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- USB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а +5.45% price change this week, while USB (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.29%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
USB is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.29% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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USB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, USB has been closely correlated with PNC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if USB jumps, then PNC could also see price increases.