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KEY vs USB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. U.S. Bancorp (USB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both KEY and USB reported Q1 2026 earnings beats, with KEY EPS of $0.44 surpassing estimates by 7% and USB EPS of $1.18 exceeding forecasts by 3%.
- KEY shares have risen over 14% in recent weeks amid strong commercial lending growth, outpacing broader market gains.
- USB demonstrates stability with a larger market cap around $87 billion and a lower P/E ratio of approximately 12, compared to KEY's 13.5.
- Dividend yields are comparable at roughly 3.7% for both, appealing to income-focused investors.
- KEY shows higher volatility but greater growth potential in fees and investment banking.
Introduction
KeyCorp (KEY) and U.S. Bancorp (USB), two prominent regional banks, offer investors exposure to the financial sector's resilience amid shifting interest rates and economic conditions. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performances, business models, and market positioning to aid traders seeking momentum plays and long-term holders prioritizing stability and dividends. With both stocks benefiting from positive Q1 earnings surprises in recent market activity, understanding their relative strengths helps in evaluating sector opportunities and portfolio diversification in a competitive banking landscape.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp, the holding company for KeyBank National Association, provides retail banking, commercial lending, and investment services primarily in the Midwest and Northeast. In recent weeks, KEY shares have climbed about 14.5% monthly and over 50% annually, reflecting robust Q1 2026 results with EPS of $0.44 beating estimates and revenue of $1.95 billion driven by commercial lending and fee income growth. Sentiment has improved on expectations of higher net interest income (NII, revenue from interest-bearing assets minus interest expenses) and investment banking upside, though higher volatility persists compared to peers. Trading around $22 with a market cap near $23.5 billion, P/E ratio of 13.5 (price-to-earnings, a valuation multiple of stock price to earnings per share), and 3.7% dividend yield, KEY appeals to growth-oriented investors.
USB Overview and Recent Performance
U.S. Bancorp, operating as U.S. Bank, delivers a broad range of banking, payment, and wealth management services across 26 states with a focus on the Midwest and West. USB stock has shown steady gains, up nearly 49% over the past year, bolstered by Q1 2026 EPS of $1.18 topping forecasts and net revenue of $7.29 billion, up 4.7% year-over-year, fueled by consumer deposit growth and partnerships. Positive sentiment stems from disciplined risk management and diversified revenue, though slower revenue growth guidance tempers enthusiasm. At around $57 per share, with an $87 billion market cap, P/E of 12, and 3.65% yield, USB suits conservative investors valuing scale and lower volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both KEY and USB operate diversified regional banking models with exposure to commercial and consumer lending, but USB's larger scale provides broader geographic reach and fee-based stability. Growth drivers differ: KEY emphasizes aggressive fee expansion and buybacks, projecting 24% EPS growth, while USB prioritizes deposit growth amid 4-6% revenue outlook. Recent momentum favors KEY with sharper gains, but USB exhibits lower risk via reduced volatility (4.8% vs. 5.9%) and superior ROE (return on equity, profitability measure). Sector pressures like net charge-offs (NCO, loan losses) are minimal for both, though interest rate sensitivity heightens trade-offs in market sentiment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward KEY with higher probability for near-term outperformance, citing consistent trend strength, elevated earnings growth, and momentum in recent market activity over USB's steadier but less dynamic profile. Factors like fee catalysts and relative valuation position KEY favorably, though USB remains viable for risk-averse positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a Buy and USB is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileUSB’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- USB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while USB’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- USB’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а +1.83% price change this week, while USB (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.54% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Jul 21, 2026.
USB is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.31% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| KEY | USB | KEY / USB | |
| Capitalization | 24.6B | 91.4B | 27% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 12.812 | 11.106 | 115% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.01 | 12.30 | 114% |
| Revenue | 7.47B | 28.9B | 26% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 17B | 79.2B | 21% |
KEY | USB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 38 Fair valued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 75 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 6 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 22 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 84 | 39 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (38) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as USB (39). This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to USB’s over the last 12 months.
USB's Profit vs Risk Rating (75) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (77). This means that USB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
USB's SMR Rating (6) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (10). This means that USB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Price Growth Rating (20) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as USB (22). This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to USB’s over the last 12 months.
USB's P/E Growth Rating (39) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (84). This means that USB’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | USB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 69% | 27 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 52% |
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