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KEY vs USB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. U.S. Bancorp (USB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KeyCorp (KEY) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) are both major U.S. regional banks with exposure to commercial lending, consumer banking, and fee-based services.
- Recent market activity shows KeyCorp (KEY) reporting Q1 2026 net income of $486 million, up 31% year-over-year, with revenue at $1.95 billion.
- U.S. Bancorp (USB) maintains diversified revenue streams, including significant payment services and wealth management contributions representing over 40% of net revenue.
- KeyCorp (KEY) stock has traded near $23 amid focus on its upcoming Q2 2026 earnings, while broader financial sector dynamics influence both names.
- Comparative metrics highlight trade-offs in capital positioning, efficiency ratios, and non-interest income stability between the two institutions.
- Market sentiment reflects ongoing regional bank sector pressures and opportunities tied to interest rate environments and loan demand.
Introduction
KeyCorp (KEY) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) represent two prominent regional banking institutions whose stock performance often reflects broader trends in commercial lending, deposit gathering, and fee income generation. Investors and traders focused on the financial sector frequently examine these names for insights into relative valuation, earnings momentum, and resilience amid economic shifts. This comparison provides objective context on business profiles, recent price behavior, and key differentiators, helping market participants evaluate positioning within the regional bank space without favoring either security.
KeyCorp (KEY) Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp (KEY) operates as a regional bank holding company primarily through its KeyBank subsidiary, offering commercial and retail banking, investment management, and capital markets services across the Midwest and Northeast. In recent weeks, the stock has exhibited measured movement around the $23 level, influenced by Q1 2026 earnings that showed net income rising 31% year-over-year to $486 million and revenue reaching $1.95 billion. Analysts have noted the company’s efficiency ratio improvements and anticipation surrounding the Q2 2026 earnings release scheduled for July 21. Sentiment has been shaped by sector-wide loan demand trends and capital return expectations, with the shares occasionally underperforming select peers in short-term sessions.
U.S. Bancorp (USB) Overview and Recent Performance
U.S. Bancorp (USB) functions as a diversified financial services company with core operations in commercial and consumer banking, payments, and wealth management. Recent market activity has highlighted its stable fee income profile, which accounted for approximately 42% of total net revenue in the latest reported period. The stock has responded to macroeconomic factors affecting the broader banking sector, including interest rate trajectories and credit quality metrics. Performance has been supported by consistent payment services volume and assets under management growth, positioning the company amid ongoing regional bank comparisons without standout single-period volatility in the most recent trading sessions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
KeyCorp (KEY) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) differ in scale and revenue mix, with U.S. Bancorp (USB) benefiting from larger payment services and wealth management operations that contribute substantial non-interest income. KeyCorp (KEY) has demonstrated stronger sequential earnings growth in its most recent quarter, alongside a focus on efficiency gains. Risk factors include both institutions’ exposure to commercial real estate and interest rate sensitivity, though U.S. Bancorp (USB) maintains broader geographic diversification. Recent momentum has favored KeyCorp (KEY) on earnings beats, while U.S. Bancorp (USB) offers relative stability through its diversified model. Sector exposure remains concentrated in traditional banking for both, with market sentiment reflecting cautious optimism around regional bank capital positions and loan growth prospects.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as earnings consistency, revenue diversification, and positioning ahead of upcoming reports, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a probabilistic edge to U.S. Bancorp (USB) for relative stability in trend consistency and catalyst resilience. KeyCorp (KEY) shows competitive momentum potential tied to its efficiency improvements, yet the broader stability profile of U.S. Bancorp (USB) may align more closely with sustained positioning in the current environment. This assessment remains probabilistic and derived from quantitative signals rather than forward projections.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a StrongBuy and USB is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileUSB’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- USB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while USB’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- USB’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а -0.90% price change this week, while USB (@Regional Banks) price change was -0.78% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.58%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.22%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Jul 21, 2026.
USB is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.58% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| KEY | USB | KEY / USB | |
| Capitalization | 25.1B | 97.1B | 26% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 14.739 | 19.046 | 77% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.25 | 13.07 | 109% |
| Revenue | 7.47B | 28.9B | 26% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 17B | 79.2B | 21% |
KEY | USB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 34 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 37 Fair valued | 44 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 73 | 65 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 6 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 24 | 17 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 85 | 36 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (37) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as USB (44). This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to USB’s over the last 12 months.
USB's Profit vs Risk Rating (65) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (73). This means that USB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
USB's SMR Rating (6) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (10). This means that USB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
USB's Price Growth Rating (17) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (24). This means that USB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
USB's P/E Growth Rating (36) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (85). This means that USB’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | USB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 6 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 6 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 68% | N/A |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 52% |
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KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with CFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then CFG could also see price increases.
USB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, USB has been closely correlated with PNC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if USB jumps, then PNC could also see price increases.