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MLI vs NWPX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Mueller Industries (MLI) vs. NWPX Infrastructure (NWPX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MLI is a diversified manufacturer of copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products, while NWPX is a specialized producer of water-related infrastructure systems.
- Both companies reported strong year-over-year revenue growth in recent quarters, but NWPX delivered earnings beats, while MLI posted a modest EPS (earnings per share) miss amid copper-related margin compression.
- MLI offers a materially larger market capitalization and a dividend, whereas NWPX carries no dividend but has shown stronger recent share-price momentum.
- Relative performance and market positioning diverge sharply: NWPX has climbed roughly 90% or more over the past year, while MLI has pulled back from its 52-week high.
- Risk profiles differ by sector exposure, with MLI sensitive to copper prices and construction cycles and NWPX tied to public water-infrastructure spending and project timing.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two industrial manufacturers operating at opposite ends of the market-capitalization spectrum. MLI (Mueller Industries) is a multi-billion-dollar fabricator of copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic components serving plumbing, HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), refrigeration, and industrial markets. NWPX (NWPX Infrastructure, formerly Northwest Pipe Company) is a smaller, focused manufacturer of engineered water transmission and precast infrastructure products. Investors weighing a diversified, dividend-paying industrial against a high-momentum infrastructure specialist may find this comparison useful for evaluating relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning.
MLI Overview and Recent Performance
Mueller Industries operates through three segments—Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate—and sells across North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Its earnings are closely tied to copper prices and to residential and commercial construction activity. In recent quarters, the company reported strong revenue growth, aided by higher selling prices and demand from U.S. data-center expansion and commercial building activity. In its latest quarterly report, revenue rose roughly 31% year over year to about $1.42 billion, but diluted EPS of $1.00 landed slightly below consensus estimates. The market focused on margin compression: operating margin narrowed as copper averaged around $6.48 per pound, up more than 30% year over year, while acquisition-related purchase-accounting charges weighed on profitability. Following the report, shares pulled back sharply, leaving MLI trading well below its 52-week high despite a comparatively modest P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio and a small dividend yield. A 2-for-1 stock split completed in mid-2026 and a sizable net cash position underscore a conservative balance sheet.
NWPX Overview and Recent Performance
NWPX Infrastructure manufactures engineered water transmission systems (WTS), including steel and bar-wrapped concrete pipe, along with precast concrete and engineered products used in water, wastewater, and stormwater applications. Headquartered in Vancouver, Washington, the company operates 14 manufacturing facilities across North America. Recent market activity has favored the stock, reflecting record quarterly results. In its latest reported quarter, net sales rose roughly 20% year over year to about $159.5 million, gross margin expanded, and diluted EPS of $1.62 exceeded analyst estimates. Record WTS backlog and an elevated bid pipeline indicate sustained demand tied to public infrastructure funding and large transmission projects. Unlike MLI, NWPX does not pay a dividend, and its share count and market capitalization are far smaller, contributing to higher share-price volatility alongside strong momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most clearly on scale, diversification, and earnings quality in the current environment. MLI is a diversified industrial with a market capitalization above $13 billion, a dividend, and a net cash balance sheet, but its profitability is exposed to copper-price swings that recently compressed margins despite rapid revenue growth. NWPX is a smaller, more focused business with a market capitalization near or above $1 billion, no dividend, and a net cash position, yet it has delivered consecutive earnings beats and expanding operating margins backed by a record backlog.
Growth drivers also differ. MLI benefits from data-center construction, commercial building, and reshoring, while NWPX leans on public water-infrastructure spending and large transmission projects. Risk factors contrast accordingly: MLI faces commodity-cost and residential-construction headwinds, whereas NWPX carries project-timing, steel-price, and backlog-concentration risks. In terms of momentum, NWPX has outperformed over the trailing year, while MLI has consolidated after reaching a 52-week high, a pattern consistent with its recent earnings-driven pullback.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely express a near-term preference for NWPX. The company's record results, expanding margins, elevated backlog, and sustained upward price momentum present a more consistent trend profile than MLI, which has faced margin compression and a post-earnings retreat despite strong revenue. However, this assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: MLI offers greater diversification, a dividend, and a stronger balance-sheet cushion, which may appeal to strategies emphasizing stability and valuation. The relative edge would likely depend on the specific timeframe and risk tolerance of the underlying strategy being applied.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MLI is a Hold and NWPX is a Buy.
Momentum Indicator for MLI turns negative, indicating new downward trend
MLI saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 82 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 51%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MLI turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MLI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for MLI's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +1.32% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MLI advanced for three days, in 250 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
MLI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 239 of 329 cases where MLI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.587) is normal, around the industry mean (3.110). P/E Ratio (14.773) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.240). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (0.744). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.029) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.880) is also within normal values, averaging (5901.087).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MLI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
NWPX sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
On October 21, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for NWPX moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 60 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 46 of the 60 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NWPX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +2.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NWPX advanced for three days, in 220 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
NWPX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NWPX as a result. In 49 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NWPX turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NWPX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for NWPX entered a downward trend on September 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NWPX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.217) is normal, around the industry mean (2.211). P/E Ratio (19.067) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.180). NWPX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.831) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.059) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.750) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
MLI | NWPX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 50 Fair valued | 86 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 36 | 64 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MLI's Valuation (50) in the Metal Fabrication industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NWPX (86). This means that MLI’s stock grew somewhat faster than NWPX’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as NWPX (35). This means that MLI’s stock grew similarly to NWPX’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's SMR Rating (36) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as NWPX (64). This means that MLI’s stock grew similarly to NWPX’s over the last 12 months.
NWPX's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as MLI (59). This means that NWPX’s stock grew similarly to MLI’s over the last 12 months.
NWPX's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as MLI (55). This means that NWPX’s stock grew similarly to MLI’s over the last 12 months.
| MLI | NWPX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 73% | 21 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 49% | 15 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 57% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MLI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NWPX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MLI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NWPX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MLI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NWPX’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MLI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- NWPX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
MLI (@Metal Fabrication) experienced а -5.28% price change this week, while NWPX (@Steel) price change was +2.36% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was -2.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.11%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.86%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was -2.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.18%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.60%.
Reported Earning Dates
MLI is expected to report earnings on Feb 09, 2027.
NWPX is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Metal Fabrication (-2.10% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
@Steel (-2.63% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
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MLI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MLI has been loosely correlated with MTUS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MLI jumps, then MTUS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MLI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLI | 100% | -5.23% | ||
| MTUS - MLI | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.66% | ||
| CODI - MLI | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.39% | ||
| MDU - MLI | 44% Loosely correlated | +1.31% | ||
| NWPX - MLI | 44% Loosely correlated | -3.08% | ||
| NUE - MLI | 44% Loosely correlated | -2.45% | ||
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NWPX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NWPX has been loosely correlated with ESAB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NWPX jumps, then ESAB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NWPX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWPX | 100% | -3.08% | ||
| ESAB - NWPX | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.80% | ||
| PRLB - NWPX | 51% Loosely correlated | -5.94% | ||
| CMC - NWPX | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.72% | ||
| MATW - NWPX | 49% Loosely correlated | +0.47% | ||
| CRS - NWPX | 48% Loosely correlated | -20.62% | ||
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