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PSI vs SMH
Which ETF would AI Choose? Invesco Semiconductors ETF (PSI) vs. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
Key Takeaways
- Invesco Semiconductors ETF (PSI) employs a quantitative, multi-factor selection process across approximately 30 U.S. semiconductor companies, resulting in more balanced weighting and reduced concentration in the largest names compared with market-capitalization approaches.
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) tracks a market-cap-weighted index of about 25 U.S.-listed semiconductor firms, delivering higher exposure to mega-cap leaders and including select international companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) and ASML Holding (ASML).
- PSI carries a higher expense ratio of 0.55 percent, while SMH offers a lower cost structure at 0.35 percent, potentially enhancing long-term net returns for cost-sensitive investors.
- Both ETFs provide pure-play exposure to the semiconductor industry but differ in diversification profiles: PSI emphasizes factor-driven selection across size segments, whereas SMH concentrates on liquidity and scale within the sector.
- Structural differences in holdings and weighting methodologies create distinct risk-return profiles, with PSI offering broader representation across U.S. semiconductor firms and SMH providing concentrated access to global supply-chain leaders.
- Investors comparing the two should evaluate preferences for active-like factor exposure versus passive market-cap weighting when allocating within the semiconductor thematic space.
Introduction
The semiconductor sector remains central to technological advancement, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and global supply chains. Invesco Semiconductors ETF (PSI) and VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) both target this industry yet employ distinct methodologies that produce different exposure profiles. PSI uses a rules-based quantitative model to select and weight holdings, while SMH follows a straightforward market-capitalization approach. These ETFs do not compete directly as identical products; instead, they offer investors alternative strategies for gaining semiconductor exposure—one emphasizing factor diversification and the other prioritizing scale and liquidity. The comparison helps clarify positioning within a high-growth yet volatile sector.
Invesco Semiconductors ETF (PSI) Overview
Invesco Semiconductors ETF (PSI) seeks to track the Dynamic Semiconductor Intellidex Index. The index applies a proprietary quantitative methodology that evaluates U.S. semiconductor companies on criteria including price momentum, earnings momentum, quality, management action, and value. The fund typically holds around 30 to 33 securities and rebalances quarterly. Top holdings often include companies such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), Analog Devices (ADI), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Micron Technology (MU), with weights generally more evenly distributed than pure market-cap indexes. Sector allocation is concentrated in technology, specifically semiconductors and related equipment. PSI maintains an expense ratio of 0.55 percent and operates as a passively managed, open-ended fund structure focused exclusively on U.S. issuers.
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Overview
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) aims to replicate the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index. The index selects the 25 largest and most liquid U.S.-listed companies primarily engaged in semiconductor production or equipment manufacturing. The fund holds approximately 25 to 27 securities and follows market-capitalization weighting with periodic rebalancing. Prominent holdings typically feature NVIDIA (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), Broadcom (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and ASML Holding (ASML). The portfolio includes both domestic and select foreign issuers listed on U.S. exchanges. Sector exposure centers on information technology with a semiconductor focus. SMH features an expense ratio of 0.35 percent and functions as a passively managed, non-diversified open-ended fund.
Industry and Thematic Backdrop
The semiconductor industry benefits from sustained demand driven by artificial intelligence training and inference, data-center expansion, advanced computing, and automotive electrification. Capital expenditures by leading chipmakers and equipment suppliers continue to support long-term growth, while geopolitical tensions around supply-chain resilience influence investment flows. Regulatory developments, including export controls and domestic manufacturing incentives, shape competitive dynamics. Broader macroeconomic factors such as interest-rate trajectories and corporate capital-spending cycles affect sector performance. Risks include cyclical inventory adjustments, technological disruption, and concentration among a limited number of advanced-process manufacturers.
Performance and Positioning Comparison
Over recent market cycles, both ETFs have exhibited sensitivity to semiconductor earnings seasons and AI-related capital-spending announcements. SMH’s market-cap weighting has historically amplified gains during periods of outperformance by the largest firms, while PSI’s factor-based approach has provided exposure across a wider range of company sizes. In recent weeks and months, relative positioning has reflected differences in top-holdings concentration and international exposure. PSI’s quarterly rebalancing may moderate volatility associated with single-name moves, whereas SMH’s structure can lead to greater sensitivity to mega-cap momentum. Investors have observed varying degrees of participation in sector rotations tied to interest-rate expectations and technology spending trends.
AI Screener
Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Professional and retail investors seeking data-driven insights into semiconductor and technology themes may find the platform useful for refining ETF and equity selection processes.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable structural characteristics, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modest probabilistic preference to VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) due to its lower expense ratio, high liquidity profile, and concentrated exposure to established sector leaders amid ongoing semiconductor momentum. PSI offers complementary value through its factor-driven diversification and reduced mega-cap concentration, which may appeal in environments favoring broader participation. The choice ultimately depends on investor objectives regarding cost, diversification, and weighting methodology.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PSI is a Hold and SMH is a Hold.
PSI's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for PSI entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 120 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 110 of the 120 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 60 of 68 cases where PSI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PSI as a result. In 79 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PSI turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 48 of the 54 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 89%.
PSI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PSI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PSI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PSI's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +7.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PSI advanced for three days, in 313 of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
PSI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
SMH's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for SMH moved out of oversold territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +4.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SMH advanced for three days, in 330 of 360 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
SMH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 297 of 314 cases where SMH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 52 of 64 cases where SMH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SMH as a result. In 80 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SMH turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 43 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 88%.
SMH moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SMH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SMH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
| PSI | SMH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 90% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 89% | 3 days ago 88% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 86% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 88% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 89% | 5 days ago 90% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 81% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 90% |
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PSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PSI has been closely correlated with ONTO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PSI jumps, then ONTO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSI | 100% | -8.17% | ||
| ONTO - PSI | 88% Closely correlated | -9.16% | ||
| SYNA - PSI | 83% Closely correlated | -0.04% | ||
| UCTT - PSI | 82% Closely correlated | -9.12% | ||
| ACLS - PSI | 81% Closely correlated | -10.67% | ||
| GFS - PSI | 77% Closely correlated | -8.62% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
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