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SKYW vs UAL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? SkyWest (SKYW) vs. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different business models: SKYW is a regional carrier flying under contract for major airlines, while UAL is a global network carrier that sells tickets directly to consumers.
- Fuel exposure differs sharply: UAL bears direct fuel-price risk, while SKYW's contract-based flying shifts much of that exposure to its partners.
- Momentum diverges: SKYW has recently outperformed, while UAL shares have pulled back amid higher fuel costs and lowered guidance.
- Valuation is modest in both cases: each trades at a single-digit trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, though growth and risk profiles differ.
- Analyst sentiment favors UAL with a "Strong Buy" consensus, while SKYW retains a more balanced "Hold"-to-"Buy" stance.
Introduction
Airline stocks move in the same macroeconomic weather but face very different operating conditions, which makes this stock comparison instructive. SKYW (SkyWest, Inc.) and UAL (United Airlines Holdings, Inc.) both sit within the U.S. aviation complex, yet one is an asset-backed regional operator paid to fly on behalf of larger carriers, while the other is a full-service global airline exposed to ticket pricing, premium demand, and fuel volatility. Investors weighing relative performance and market positioning across these two names will find contrasting risk-reward profiles, from balance-sheet leverage to sensitivity to jet fuel prices.
SKYW Overview and Recent Performance
SkyWest operates a regional fleet of roughly 500 aircraft connecting passengers to more than 240 destinations across North America, flying primarily under capacity purchase and prorate agreements with United, Delta, American, and Alaska. This contract structure provides a comparatively stable revenue base, because partner carriers absorb much of the scheduling and fare-setting risk. In recent weeks, SKYW reported second-quarter net income of about $101 million, with revenue rising on higher block hours and strong demand across both contract and prorate flying. The company announced a new agreement with American Airlines for 11 Embraer E175 aircraft and added $250 million to its existing stock repurchase authorization. Higher fuel prices pressured its smaller prorate segment, but management indicated demand helped offset a meaningful portion of that cost. The stock gained after the results, building on a rebound over the prior quarter, although its one-year total return remains negative.
UAL Overview and Recent Performance
United Airlines Holdings is one of the largest U.S. network carriers, transporting passengers and cargo across domestic and international routes. Unlike a regional contractor, UAL carries direct exposure to fuel prices, labor costs, and consumer fare sensitivity. In recent quarters, the company posted record-level revenue and strong premium-segment demand, but sharply higher fuel costs compressed margins and pushed adjusted earnings down year over year. Management revised its full-year earnings outlook lower, citing fuel volatility, which weighed on sentiment and sent shares into a pullback after a strong multi-year run. In recent weeks the company also expanded an engine exchange partnership with FTAI Aviation and continued a Starlink connectivity rollout. Analysts maintain an overwhelmingly positive consensus, with a "Strong Buy" rating and price targets well above recent trading levels, even as near-term momentum has softened.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most consequential contrast between these two stocks is revenue risk. SKYW earns much of its income through long-term flying agreements, which insulates it from fare competition but caps upside and ties its growth to partners' fleet plans. UAL captures the full economics of ticket pricing and premium travel, offering greater leverage to demand strength but also fuller exposure to fuel, labor, and cyclical downturns. Growth drivers differ as well: SkyWest is expanding its E175 fleet under new partner commitments, while United leans on fleet upgauging, premium segmentation, and international network strength. On risk, SkyWest carries a smaller equity base and a high debt load relative to its size, whereas United operates with substantial liquidity and leverage of roughly 2.2 times. Sector exposure is shared—both are sensitive to travel demand and jet fuel—but the transmission mechanism is very different, which explains their divergent recent momentum and market positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward SKYW in the current environment. The stock has demonstrated more consistent recent trend behavior, benefits from a contract-based revenue stream that partially shields it from fuel-price swings, and has visible catalysts in fleet growth and share repurchases. UAL offers stronger analyst backing and a compelling long-term valuation, but its direct fuel exposure and recent downward guidance revisions introduce greater near-term volatility. In probabilistic terms, SkyWest's combination of relative stability and identifiable catalysts currently appears more favorable to an AI-driven trend and positioning framework, though United's premium-demand strength remains a meaningful counterweight that could shift the balance as fuel conditions normalize.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SKYW is a StrongBuy and UAL is a Hold.
SKYW sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
On October 21, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for SKYW moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 42 of the 51 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SKYW's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +3.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SKYW advanced for three days, in 237 of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
SKYW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SKYW as a result. In 54 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SKYW turned negative on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
SKYW moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SKYW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator for SKYW entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.346) is normal, around the industry mean (1.862). P/E Ratio (9.330) is within average values for comparable stocks, (5.677). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.420) is also within normal values, averaging (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.944) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SKYW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
UAL's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for UAL entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 156 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 119 of the 156 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UAL as a result. In 62 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UAL turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UAL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UAL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 54 cases where UAL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Following a +4.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UAL advanced for three days, in 235 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
UAL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 61 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.983) is normal, around the industry mean (1.862). P/E Ratio (9.453) is within average values for comparable stocks, (5.677). UAL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.503) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.252). UAL's Dividend Yield (0.084) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.026). P/S Ratio (0.552) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
SKYW | UAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 80 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 46 Fair valued | 61 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 45 | 46 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 55 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SKYW's Valuation (46) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (61). This means that SKYW’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
SKYW's Profit vs Risk Rating (45) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (46). This means that SKYW’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's SMR Rating (42) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as SKYW (55). This means that UAL’s stock grew similarly to SKYW’s over the last 12 months.
SKYW's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (60). This means that SKYW’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as SKYW (53). This means that UAL’s stock grew similarly to SKYW’s over the last 12 months.
| SKYW | UAL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 87% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SKYW’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while UAL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- SKYW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- UAL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SKYW’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SKYW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UAL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
SKYW (@Airlines) experienced а +1.97% price change this week, while UAL (@Airlines) price change was +0.68% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was -1.87%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.81%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.18%.
Reported Earning Dates
SKYW is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
UAL is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (-1.87% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
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SKYW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SKYW has been closely correlated with UAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SKYW jumps, then UAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SKYW | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYW | 100% | +1.57% | ||
| UAL - SKYW | 74% Closely correlated | +0.32% | ||
| AAL - SKYW | 70% Closely correlated | +2.98% | ||
| ALGT - SKYW | 69% Closely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| JBLU - SKYW | 62% Loosely correlated | -9.56% | ||
| ULCC - SKYW | 60% Loosely correlated | +5.16% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| GSEW | 96.58 | 0.22 | +0.22% |
| Goldman Sachs Equal Weight U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF (GSEW) | |||
| NBFC | 49.28 | 0.08 | +0.17% |
| Neuberger Flexible Credit Income ETF (NBFC) | |||
| BCSM | 24.59 | -0.13 | -0.51% |
| Baron SMID Cap ETF (BCSM) | |||
| GAUG | 42.18 | -0.25 | -0.59% |
| FT Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer ETF - August (GAUG) | |||
| ARMH | 8.99 | -0.70 | -7.22% |
| ARM HOLDINGS PLC ADRHEDGED | |||