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ACA vs TEX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arcosa (ACA) vs. Terex (TEX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ACA has agreed to be acquired by CRH in an all-cash transaction at $150 per share, effectively capping near-term upside near that level while providing deal-certainty for shareholders.
- TEX is executing a strategic transformation following its merger with REV Group, shifting its portfolio toward specialty vehicles and more resilient municipal end-markets.
- Arcosa delivered record full-year 2025 results with revenues of $2.88 billion and Adjusted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) of $583 million, while Terex reported full-year sales of $5.4 billion and free cash flow of $325 million.
- ACA trades near its 52-week high with limited upside due to the pending acquisition, whereas TEX holds a consensus Moderate Buy rating with an average analyst price target of approximately $79, suggesting further potential appreciation.
- The two companies differ markedly in sector exposure: ACA is concentrated in U.S. infrastructure and grid modernization, while TEX spans specialty vehicles, waste and recycling, utilities, and construction equipment globally.
- Institutional ownership remains high for both stocks — above 90% in each case — reflecting sustained interest from large-scale investors in the industrials and infrastructure space.
Introduction
Comparing ACA (Arcosa, Inc.) and TEX (Terex Corporation) places two distinct industrial companies side by side — one an infrastructure-products provider navigating a major acquisition, the other a global equipment manufacturer reshaping its identity through M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions). Both stocks have attracted significant institutional attention in recent months and operate in sectors sensitive to macroeconomic trends, infrastructure policy, and industrial demand cycles. This comparison is particularly relevant for investors weighing different paths to value creation in the industrials space: the certainty of an all-cash takeover versus the longer-term transformation story of a legacy machinery name pivoting toward specialty vehicles and steadier earnings.
ACA Overview and Recent Performance
Arcosa, Inc., headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is a provider of infrastructure-related products and solutions operating across three segments: Construction Products, Engineered Structures, and Transportation Products. The company manufactures and sells construction aggregates, utility structures for electricity transmission and distribution, wind towers, traffic and lighting structures, and inland barges. In recent weeks, the dominant development for ACA has been the announcement that Irish building-materials giant CRH agreed to acquire 100% of Arcosa in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $8.5 billion, or $150 per share. This deal, subject to stockholder and regulatory approvals, has effectively anchored ACA's stock near the offer price, with shares trading around $145 in late July 2026.
Prior to the acquisition announcement, Arcosa had completed the divestiture of its barge business to Wynnchurch Capital for $450 million in cash — a move designed to streamline the portfolio around higher-growth construction materials and engineered structures. The company posted record full-year 2025 revenues of $2.88 billion, up 12% year over year, with Adjusted EBITDA rising 30% to $583 million. In its most recent quarterly report, ACA delivered earnings of $0.51 per share, significantly exceeding consensus estimates, though revenue came in slightly below expectations. With the CRH acquisition pending, Arcosa has suspended its regular earnings calls and forward guidance, leaving the deal timeline and regulatory review as the primary catalysts.
TEX Overview and Recent Performance
Terex Corporation, based in Norwalk, Connecticut, is a global manufacturer of specialized equipment serving sectors including emergency services, waste and recycling, utilities, and construction. Its product portfolio spans aerial work platforms, cranes, material processing machinery, utility equipment, and — following its recent merger with REV Group — specialty vehicles such as fire trucks, ambulances, and recreational vehicles. The REV Group transaction, completed earlier in 2026, represents a pivotal step in Terex's strategy to reduce cyclicality and increase exposure to more resilient municipal and government spending streams.
TEX reported full-year 2025 sales of $5.4 billion, with adjusted operating profit of $566 million and free cash flow of $325 million, reflecting a cash conversion rate of 147%. Fourth-quarter 2025 bookings surged 32% year over year to $1.9 billion. In its most recent quarter, Terex posted earnings of $0.98 per share — comfortably above the $0.78 consensus — on revenue of $1.73 billion, up 41.1% year over year, driven by the inclusion of ESG (Environmental Solutions Group) and early REV contributions. The company's 2026 outlook calls for sales of $7.5 billion to $8.1 billion and EBITDA of $930 million to $1 billion. Analyst sentiment remains broadly constructive, with Morgan Stanley maintaining an Overweight rating and an $84 base-case price target, and Truist raising its target to $92.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental difference between ACA and TEX in the current environment is structural: ACA is an acquisition target trading near a fixed cash-out price, while TEX is an independent company in the midst of an active self-directed transformation. This single fact shapes nearly every dimension of their comparison.
Business Model and End Markets: Arcosa is concentrated in U.S. infrastructure — construction aggregates, utility poles, wind towers, and highway safety products — with revenues tied to federal and state infrastructure spending, grid modernization, and non-residential construction. Terex has a broader global footprint and more diversified end-market exposure, including construction equipment, aerial work platforms, cranes, material processing, and an expanding specialty-vehicle segment serving fire departments, ambulance services, and waste management fleets.
Growth Drivers: ACA's growth has been propelled by the Stavola acquisition in construction materials, record backlog in utility structures tied to grid investment, and margin expansion across its segments. TEX's growth narrative centers on the REV Group integration, expected cost synergies of roughly $75 million annually within two years, and rising municipal demand for emergency and specialty vehicles.
Risk Factors: For ACA, primary risks include the possibility that the CRH deal encounters regulatory obstacles or fails to close, which could reintroduce standalone valuation uncertainty. TEX faces tariff exposure, potential margin pressure in its legacy aerials and materials-processing segments, and execution risk associated with integrating a large acquisition while simultaneously exploring strategic alternatives for certain legacy businesses.
Market Sentiment and Momentum: ACA's stock has climbed roughly 36% year to date, near the $150 deal price, with analyst ratings shifting predominantly to Hold. TEX has gained approximately 21% year to date, with a more balanced mix of Buy and Hold ratings and a consensus price target that implies additional upside from current levels around $69–$70. TEX also carries a higher beta of 1.49 compared to ACA's 1.04, indicating greater sensitivity to broader market swings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable market data and trend characteristics, Tickeron's AI would likely view these two stocks through fundamentally different lenses. For ACA, the AI would recognize a stock operating under merger-arbitrage conditions — trading within a narrow range near a known cash offer, with limited upside beyond the deal price and primary risk tied to transaction closure. This creates a low-volatility profile but equally limited trend-following opportunity. For TEX, the AI would observe a more dynamic setup: a confirmed uptrend supported by strong bookings growth, upward analyst revisions, expanding institutional ownership, and a transformation narrative that continues to attract fresh capital. The presence of multiple catalyst layers — synergy realization, specialty-vehicle demand, and potential portfolio streamlining — provides the kind of multi-factor trend support that AI-driven strategies tend to favor. In probabilistic terms, TEX currently presents the more compelling profile for trend-following AI models, while ACA functions more as a defined-outcome event-driven situation better suited to risk-arbitrage strategies rather than directional momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ACA is a StrongBuy and TEX is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ACA’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTEX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ACA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TEX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ACA’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TEX’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ACA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TEX’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
ACA (@Engineering & Construction) experienced а +0.14% price change this week, while TEX (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was -10.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Engineering & Construction industry was -4.32%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.74%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.76%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -3.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.07%.
Reported Earning Dates
ACA is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
TEX is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Engineering & Construction (-4.32% weekly)Engineering & Construction includes companies that engage in non-residential construction and contract services, including ventilation, heating and air conditioning (HVAC) services. The level/value of construction & engineering activity is one of the potentially relevant indicators of the health of businesses, and hence of the overall economy. Some of the large-cap U.S. companies in this industry include Jacobs Engineering Group Inc,, AECOM and Quanta Services, Inc.
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-3.97% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
| ACA | TEX | ACA / TEX | |
| Capitalization | 7.09B | 7.18B | 99% |
| EBITDA | 581M | 619M | 94% |
| Gain YTD | 36.737 | 18.361 | 200% |
| P/E Ratio | 32.48 | 30.07 | 108% |
| Revenue | 2.91B | 6.68B | 44% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 407M | - |
| Total Debt | 1.52B | 2.69B | 57% |
ACA | TEX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 88 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 30 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 66 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 76 | 87 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 90 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TEX's Valuation (30) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ACA (73). This means that TEX’s stock grew somewhat faster than ACA’s over the last 12 months.
ACA's Profit vs Risk Rating (20) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TEX (66). This means that ACA’s stock grew somewhat faster than TEX’s over the last 12 months.
ACA's SMR Rating (76) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as TEX (87). This means that ACA’s stock grew similarly to TEX’s over the last 12 months.
ACA's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as TEX (51). This means that ACA’s stock grew similarly to TEX’s over the last 12 months.
TEX's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for ACA (90). This means that TEX’s stock grew significantly faster than ACA’s over the last 12 months.
| ACA | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 5 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 63% | 10 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 71% |
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ACA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ACA has been loosely correlated with ALG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ACA jumps, then ALG could also see price increases.
TEX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TEX has been loosely correlated with OSK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TEX jumps, then OSK could also see price increases.