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ADP vs PAYX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Automatic Data Processing (ADP) vs. Paychex (PAYX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADP is the larger, more diversified payroll and human capital management (HCM) provider, processing roughly one in six U.S. paychecks, while PAYX focuses on small and midsize businesses and handles payroll for about one in eleven U.S. workers.
- Both companies recently exceeded quarterly earnings expectations, yet ADP rallied on its results while PAYX pulled back despite solid figures.
- PAYX offers a notably higher dividend yield (around 4%) than ADP, a meaningful contrast for income-oriented investors.
- PAYX is expanding upmarket through its Paycor acquisition, while ADP is investing in artificial intelligence and embedded payroll to defend its scale advantage.
- Analyst consensus on both stocks is broadly "Hold," reflecting a balanced risk-reward outlook amid labor-market uncertainty.
- ADP commands a larger market capitalization than PAYX, but PAYX has recently grown revenue at a faster rate following its acquisition activity.
- For further detail on each name, explore ADP Major News and ADP Today's Price Move, as well as PAYX Major News and PAYX Today's Price Move.
- Investors interested in automated strategies can also explore Trending AI Robots to review curated trading approaches matched to current market conditions.
Introduction
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Paychex (PAYX) are two of the most established names in U.S. payroll and human capital management. Both convert recurring client relationships into steady cash flow, but they serve different segments of the market and carry distinct growth and income profiles. This stock comparison is most relevant for investors weighing a larger, diversified HCM franchise against a faster-growing, small-business specialist, and for traders assessing relative performance and market positioning across the business-services sector.
ADP Overview and Recent Performance
ADP is one of the world's largest payroll and HCM providers, serving businesses of all sizes and processing roughly one in six U.S. paychecks. In its most recent quarterly report, ADP delivered revenue of approximately $5.94 billion, up about 7% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that beat consensus estimates. Investors responded favorably, sending shares sharply higher in the session after the release.
The company also highlighted improved cash generation, with its free cash flow margin expanding meaningfully from the prior-year period. Over recent weeks, sentiment has been supported by steady demand for HCM services, continued investment in artificial intelligence and embedded payroll capabilities, and selective acquisitions. At the same time, ADP trades below its 52-week high, and Wall Street's consensus rating remains a "Hold," reflecting a view that scale and stability are partly offset by a slower-growth profile at its size.
PAYX Overview and Recent Performance
PAYX is a leading HCM provider focused primarily on small and midsize businesses, managing payroll for about one in eleven U.S. workers across roughly 840,000 clients. In its most recent quarter, PAYX reported revenue of about $1.63 billion, up roughly 6% year over year, with adjusted EPS that modestly exceeded expectations. Its Professional Employer Organization (PEO) and insurance segment remained a standout, growing in the low double digits.
Despite the earnings beat, PAYX shares pulled back in the following sessions as investors weighed slower revenue growth and integration costs tied to the Paycor acquisition. Over recent weeks, the stock has traded well off its 52-week high, even as the company expanded its WISE artificial-intelligence platform and raised its outlook for PEO and interest income. The consensus rating is also a "Hold," balancing strong margins and a roughly 4% dividend yield against cyclical sensitivity to small-business employment.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a large library of AI Trading Bots that monitor and trade thousands of different tickers across varied strategies, timeframes, and risk profiles. Because not every automated system suits every market, Tickeron curates only the strongest performers into its Trending AI Robots section. These featured bots differ in trading style, holding period, performance statistics, and the sets of tickers they follow, allowing traders to review approaches that align with current conditions rather than sifting through the full catalog. Readers comparing ADP and PAYX may find value in exploring Trending AI Robots to see how automated strategies are currently positioned across the market.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most visible contrast is scale and focus. ADP serves a broad client base, from small businesses to large enterprises, giving it revenue diversification and a larger market capitalization, but a slower growth rate. PAYX is concentrated in the small and midsize segment, which can grow faster in favorable conditions but is also more sensitive to employment trends and new business formation.
Growth drivers differ as well. ADP leans on artificial intelligence, embedded payroll, and disciplined capital returns, while PAYX is using the Paycor acquisition to move upmarket and cross-sell PEO, insurance, and retirement services. On income, PAYX offers a significantly higher dividend yield. On recent momentum, ADP has shown more positive price response to earnings, while PAYX has faced post-earnings selling pressure. Both carry similar sector exposure and remain sensitive to interest rates, which influence the "float" income they earn on client funds.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings reaction, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward ADP. Its more favorable price response to recent results, broader client diversification, improving free cash flow, and steadier trend characteristics suggest a more constructive near-term setup than PAYX, which has shown stronger momentum volatility and integration-related uncertainty. However, PAYX's higher yield and faster recent revenue growth remain meaningful offsets, and the outcome ultimately depends on how labor-market and rate conditions evolve. This assessment reflects probabilities and positioning rather than a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADP is a Buy and PAYX is a Buy.
ADP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026
ADP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 27 of 44 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 25 of 61 cases where ADP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 41%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADP as a result. In 43 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADP just turned positive on November 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 40%.
The 10-day moving average for ADP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +4.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADP advanced for three days, in 154 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 112 of 252 cases where ADP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 44%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ADP moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 14 of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 37%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
ADP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ADP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (19.630) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.884). P/E Ratio (27.236) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.540). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.446) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.020) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).
PAYX in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PAYX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 31 of 51 cases where PAYX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PAYX as a result. In 47 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PAYX just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where PAYX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
PAYX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAYX advanced for three days, in 163 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 119 of 233 cases where PAYX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PAYX moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 12 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 41%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAYX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
PAYX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PAYX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.095) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.884). P/E Ratio (22.915) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.540). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.848) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.452) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PAYX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.
ADP | PAYX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 38 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 79 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 48 | 84 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 22 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 60 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PAYX's Valuation (79) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as ADP (86). This means that PAYX’s stock grew similarly to ADP’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Profit vs Risk Rating (48) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PAYX (84). This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than PAYX’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's SMR Rating (17) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYX (22). This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYX’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Price Growth Rating (17) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYX (43). This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYX’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's P/E Growth Rating (36) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYX (60). This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYX’s over the last 12 months.
| ADP | PAYX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 37% | 1 day ago 41% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 40% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 48% | 7 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 51% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while PAYX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ADP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PAYX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADP’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAYX’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADP’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- PAYX’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
ADP (@Packaged Software) experienced а -0.78% price change this week, while PAYX (@Packaged Software) price change was -0.18% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -1.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.22%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADP is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
PAYX is expected to report earnings on Dec 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-1.97% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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PAYX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PAYX has been closely correlated with ADP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PAYX jumps, then ADP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PAYX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX | 100% | +3.01% | ||
| ADP - PAYX | 87% Closely correlated | +1.68% | ||
| PCTY - PAYX | 73% Closely correlated | +1.86% | ||
| PAYC - PAYX | 72% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| ROP - PAYX | 65% Loosely correlated | +2.77% | ||
| ADBE - PAYX | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.50% | ||
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