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AMAT vs ONTO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Materials (AMAT) vs. Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AMAT and ONTO both operate in the semiconductor equipment sector, with exposure to AI-driven demand for advanced chip manufacturing tools.
- ONTO delivered strong second-quarter 2026 results, including record revenue of $343.1 million and a significant post-earnings stock rally.
- AMAT is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter results on August 13, 2026, with analysts projecting robust revenue growth tied to AI-related spending.
- Both stocks have shown substantial year-to-date gains amid broader semiconductor sector momentum, though ONTO exhibited sharper recent volatility following its earnings release.
- Key contrasts include AMAT’s larger scale and diversified product portfolio versus ONTO’s specialized focus on metrology and inspection solutions.
- Market sentiment for both remains influenced by AI capital expenditure trends and geopolitical factors affecting semiconductor supply chains.
Introduction
This comparison examines AMAT (Applied Materials) and ONTO (Onto Innovation), two companies providing essential equipment for semiconductor fabrication. Both benefit from ongoing investments in advanced chip technologies, particularly those supporting artificial intelligence applications. The analysis focuses on recent performance metrics, business models, and market positioning to assist investors and traders evaluating relative opportunities within the semiconductor equipment industry. Such a side-by-side review may appeal to those monitoring sector-specific catalysts and seeking to understand how scale, specialization, and earnings momentum differentiate these names in the current environment.
AMAT Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Materials develops and supplies equipment used in the production of semiconductors, including deposition, etching, and inspection technologies. The company serves major chipmakers investing in next-generation nodes. In recent weeks, AMAT shares have traded near the $539 level, reflecting broader market recovery in technology stocks amid sustained AI-related demand. Analyst attention has centered on the company’s upcoming fiscal third-quarter earnings release, with consensus estimates pointing to revenue of approximately $8.95 billion. Positive sentiment stems from expectations of continued capital spending by customers, though exposure to export regulations in certain markets remains a noted factor. Year-to-date performance has been strong, supported by multiple upward revisions to price targets from research firms.
ONTO Overview and Recent Performance
Onto Innovation specializes in process control solutions, including metrology and inspection systems critical for yield optimization in semiconductor manufacturing. The company reported its second-quarter 2026 results in early August, posting record revenue of $343.1 million and earnings per share of $1.21, both exceeding prior guidance. Following the release, shares rallied sharply, advancing more than 13 percent in one session and contributing to weekly gains near 23 percent. Guidance for the third quarter highlighted further sequential improvement, with revenue projected around $380 million. Recent market activity reflects investor response to a substantial backlog and indications of broad-based demand, including from AI-related applications. The stock has experienced notable price movement tied to these developments.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AMAT operates at greater scale with a broader portfolio spanning multiple stages of the semiconductor process, providing diversified revenue streams but also greater exposure to cyclical capital spending patterns. ONTO, by contrast, maintains a narrower focus on metrology and inspection, which can deliver higher growth sensitivity to specific yield-improvement demands. Recent momentum has favored ONTO following its earnings beat and backlog expansion, while AMAT awaits its own results amid steady analyst support. Both face similar sector risks, including supply-chain constraints and regulatory considerations related to international markets. AMAT offers a dividend component, whereas ONTO emphasizes growth-oriented metrics. Market sentiment for each remains closely tied to AI infrastructure buildout and overall semiconductor equipment spending trends.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent earnings delivery, backlog visibility, and relative price momentum, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a modestly higher probability of near-term outperformance to ONTO. The company’s demonstrated ability to exceed guidance and articulate positive forward commentary provides a clearer catalyst signal compared with AMAT’s pre-earnings positioning. However, outcomes remain dependent on broader market conditions and the consistency of AI-related capital expenditures across the sector.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Disclaimers and LimitationsTo compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMAT is a Hold and ONTO is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMAT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileONTO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AMAT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ONTO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMAT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONTO’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMAT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ONTO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AMAT (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +2.60% price change this week, while ONTO (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was +22.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +6.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was +45.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMAT is expected to report earnings on Aug 13, 2026.
ONTO is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+6.60% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
| AMAT | ONTO | AMAT / ONTO | |
| Capitalization | 435B | 20.6B | 2,112% |
| EBITDA | 11.1B | 199M | 5,578% |
| Gain YTD | 113.828 | 113.702 | 100% |
| P/E Ratio | 51.57 | 126.35 | 41% |
| Revenue | 29B | 1.03B | 2,813% |
| Total Cash | 8.24B | 654M | 1,260% |
| Total Debt | 7.27B | 17.5M | 41,531% |
AMAT | ONTO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 85 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 3 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMAT's Valuation (71) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (81) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the null industry is in the same range as AMAT (35) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's SMR Rating (25) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ONTO (85) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (37) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's P/E Growth Rating (3) in the null industry is in the same range as AMAT (7) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
| AMAT | ONTO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 86% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 82% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 64% | 8 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 64% |
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ONTO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONTO has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONTO jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONTO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO | 100% | +5.49% | ||
| LRCX - ONTO | 81% Closely correlated | +4.72% | ||
| AMAT - ONTO | 80% Closely correlated | +4.29% | ||
| KLAC - ONTO | 78% Closely correlated | +3.88% | ||
| NVMI - ONTO | 77% Closely correlated | +2.51% | ||
| UCTT - ONTO | 77% Closely correlated | +5.33% | ||
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