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AMAT vs ONTO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Materials (AMAT) vs. Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale gap: AMAT is a semiconductor equipment giant (market capitalization near $360 billion), while ONTO is a fast-growing process-control specialist worth roughly $13 billion.
- Recent momentum: ONTO has posted record results and a backlog above $1 billion, while AMAT has pulled back sharply after its latest investor event.
- Business focus: AMAT spans deposition, etch, metrology, and services; ONTO concentrates on inspection, metrology, and process control.
- Shared driver: Both are leveraged to AI infrastructure spending, advanced packaging, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) demand.
- Risk profile: ONTO carries higher valuation and smaller-company cyclicality, while AMAT faces near-term sentiment pressure from uncertain wafer fab equipment (WFE) guidance.
Introduction
Applied Materials and Onto Innovation both supply the semiconductor manufacturing equipment that underpins the artificial intelligence build-out, yet they occupy very different positions in that supply chain. AMAT is a diversified materials-engineering leader serving nearly every major chipmaker, whereas ONTO is a focused provider of process-control, inspection, and metrology tools. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a broad mega-cap franchise against a higher-growth, more specialized mid-cap name. Examining their relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning helps clarify how each stock fits into the current semiconductor cycle.
AMAT Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Materials is the world's largest semiconductor equipment maker by revenue, with leadership in deposition, etch, materials engineering, and a fast-growing services business. In recent weeks, sentiment has turned cautious. At its SEMICON West investor presentation, management outlined 2030 targets—including a non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) gross margin of roughly 54% and an operating margin near 40%—but declined to provide a specific WFE (wafer fab equipment) spending forecast. The omission disappointed investors, and AMAT shares fell in the following sessions, extending a multi-day losing streak that left the stock down sharply from its mid-2026 all-time high, though still up strongly year to date. The pullback reflects uncertainty about the pace of capacity additions rather than weak fundamentals: fiscal second-quarter revenue and segment results showed healthy year-over-year growth, and the company continues to highlight AI-driven demand in DRAM, leading-edge logic, and advanced packaging.
ONTO Overview and Recent Performance
Onto Innovation is a provider of process-control, macro-defect inspection, and metrology systems used to improve semiconductor yields. Its recent performance has been notably strong. The company reported record second-quarter revenue of roughly $343 million, up more than 35% year over year, with non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.93, and guided for continued acceleration into the second half. Backlog surpassed $1 billion for the first time, with a meaningful portion extending into 2027. Growth is being driven by adoption of its Dragonfly G5 inspection platform and Atlas G6 metrology system, alongside a planned 27% stake in Rigaku Holdings to broaden its X-ray capabilities. Despite this momentum, ONTO shares have also experienced volatility in recent weeks as broader AI-sector concerns rippled across semiconductor equipment names.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with distinct strategies, timeframes, performance statistics, and watchlists. Because market conditions change constantly, only a small subset of these bots is currently well suited to the prevailing environment. That curated selection appears in Tickeron's Trending AI Robots section, which highlights the bots demonstrating the strongest alignment with present market dynamics across momentum, swing, and longer-horizon approaches. Readers comparing stocks such as AMAT and ONTO can explore this page to see which automated strategies are currently positioned for these and other tickers.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most in breadth and scale. AMAT offers a diversified portfolio that reduces dependence on any single technology cycle and supports a large, recurring services stream; its challenges center on communicating the cadence of industry spending. ONTO is more concentrated in inspection and metrology, giving it sharper leverage to the rapid growth of advanced packaging and HBM but also greater sensitivity to order timing and valuation.
On growth, ONTO is expanding revenue at a faster percentage clip, with advanced-packaging revenue forecast to grow more than 80% in 2026, while AMAT targets more modest share gains and margin expansion over a longer horizon. Risk factors also diverge: AMAT faces near-term sentiment pressure from guidance opacity and a rich valuation after its run-up, whereas ONTO faces elevated expectations, integration of recent deals, and smaller-company cyclicality. Both share exposure to AI infrastructure, memory, and advanced packaging, making them complementary—rather than identical—ways to express a view on the semiconductor equipment cycle.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ONTO in the current environment. Its relative positioning is supported by more consistent trend behavior, record revenue, a backlog extending into 2027, and clear catalysts from product ramps and strategic partnerships. AMAT, by contrast, is contending with a sharp technical pullback and near-term uncertainty around capital-spending guidance. That said, the assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: a stabilization in WFE sentiment could shift the balance back toward the larger, more diversified franchise. Traders and investors should weigh these dynamics against their own time horizon and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMAT is a Buy and ONTO is a Buy.
AMAT in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026
AMAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 32 of 35 cases where AMAT's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AMAT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 25 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 45 of 56 cases where AMAT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +6.50% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMAT advanced for three days, in 253 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMAT as a result. In 61 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AMAT turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 69%.
AMAT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AMAT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMAT entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMAT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.599) is normal, around the industry mean (6.211). P/E Ratio (32.066) is within average values for comparable stocks, (81.436). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.967) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.764) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
ONTO's RSI Indicator descending into oversold zone
The RSI Indicator for ONTO moved into overbought territory on November 02, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 65 of 69 cases where ONTO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +9.90% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONTO advanced for three days, in 268 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
ONTO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ONTO as a result. In 77 of 97 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ONTO turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
ONTO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ONTO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONTO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for ONTO entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ONTO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.885) is normal, around the industry mean (6.211). P/E Ratio (71.685) is within average values for comparable stocks, (81.436). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.817) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.787) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
AMAT | ONTO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 6 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 60 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 65 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMAT's Valuation (76) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (80) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's Profit vs Risk Rating (56) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (60) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's SMR Rating (25) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ONTO (80) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (65) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the null industry is in the same range as AMAT (27) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
| AMAT | ONTO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 80% | 6 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 71% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMAT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while ONTO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AMAT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ONTO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMAT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONTO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMAT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ONTO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AMAT (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -3.37% price change this week, while ONTO (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -5.96% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -5.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -29.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was -35.67%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMAT is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
ONTO is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-5.23% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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ONTO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONTO has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONTO jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONTO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO | 100% | -5.05% | ||
| AMAT - ONTO | 85% Closely correlated | -3.99% | ||
| LRCX - ONTO | 84% Closely correlated | -4.83% | ||
| KLAC - ONTO | 82% Closely correlated | -3.04% | ||
| NVMI - ONTO | 81% Closely correlated | -2.64% | ||
| ENTG - ONTO | 80% Closely correlated | -1.83% | ||
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