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AMAT vs ONTO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Materials (AMAT) vs. Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AMAT and ONTO both operate in the semiconductor equipment sector and have delivered strong year-to-date gains driven by AI-related demand, though both experienced approximately 16-17% pullbacks over the past month amid broader market rotation.
- AMAT reported record fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $9.12 billion, up 25% year over year, with robust contributions from semiconductor systems and services.
- ONTO posted record Q2 2026 revenue of $343 million, up 35% year over year, alongside a backlog exceeding $1 billion and continued strength in advanced nodes and packaging.
- Both companies maintain elevated valuations reflecting growth expectations, with AMAT offering greater scale, diversification, and a dividend, while ONTO provides higher revenue growth rates and exposure to metrology and inspection niches.
- Recent market activity shows correlated price behavior between the two stocks, influenced by shared sector tailwinds from wafer fab equipment spending and high-bandwidth memory demand.
- Sentiment remains constructive for both amid multi-year visibility into AI infrastructure buildouts, though near-term performance has moderated from earlier 2026 peaks.
Introduction
This comparison examines AMAT (Applied Materials) and ONTO (Onto Innovation), two companies supplying critical equipment and solutions to semiconductor manufacturers. The analysis focuses on their business models, recent financial results, and relative performance in the current environment shaped by artificial intelligence-driven chip demand. Institutional investors, growth-oriented traders, and sector specialists may find the comparison useful for assessing positioning within the semiconductor capital equipment space, where scale, technological differentiation, and exposure to advanced packaging and logic processes influence outcomes. The review draws on verifiable developments from recent weeks to provide a balanced view of momentum and risk factors.
AMAT Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Materials, Inc. supplies materials engineering solutions used in semiconductor and display manufacturing, including deposition, etch, and inspection tools. In recent market activity, the stock has reflected strong underlying demand tied to AI infrastructure, following a period of elevated gains earlier in 2026. Fiscal third-quarter 2026 results showed record revenue of $9.12 billion, representing 25% year-over-year growth, with semiconductor systems contributing significantly and non-GAAP earnings per share reaching $3.50. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.53 per share in early September 2026. Despite these results, the share price experienced a correction of roughly 16-17% over the past month from prior highs near $547, consistent with sector-wide adjustments after rapid advances. Sentiment has been supported by analyst target increases and visibility into continued wafer fab equipment spending, though elevated valuations have prompted some investor caution.
ONTO Overview and Recent Performance
Onto Innovation Inc. provides process control solutions, including metrology and inspection systems, primarily for semiconductor advanced nodes and packaging applications. Recent performance has mirrored broader sector trends, with the stock posting substantial year-to-date appreciation before a comparable 16-17% pullback in the past month from levels near $337. Second-quarter 2026 results delivered record revenue of $343 million, a 35% year-over-year increase, exceeding guidance across key metrics and supported by record advanced nodes and specialty device revenue. The company completed a strategic investment in Rigaku and reported a backlog surpassing $1 billion for the first time. Third-quarter guidance called for revenue between $380 million and $400 million. Sentiment benefits from expanding demand in high-bandwidth memory and logic applications, with management highlighting visibility extending into 2027, though the smaller scale relative to peers has contributed to higher volatility in trading.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business model terms, AMAT operates as a broad-based leader in semiconductor equipment with significant scale in deposition and etch processes, while ONTO specializes in metrology and inspection tools that complement advanced packaging and node transitions. Growth drivers overlap in AI-related wafer fab equipment and high-bandwidth memory, yet AMAT benefits from greater diversification across foundry logic and services, whereas ONTO shows faster recent revenue expansion tied to niche demand. Recent momentum has been similar, with both stocks advancing strongly year to date before parallel corrections amid valuation concerns. Risk factors include cyclical capital spending sensitivity for both, though AMAT carries a dividend and larger cash position as buffers, while ONTO exhibits higher earnings volatility. Sector exposure is concentrated in semiconductors for each, with market sentiment remaining positive on multi-year AI tailwinds but tempered by near-term rotation effects.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, and relative positioning in the semiconductor equipment space, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to AMAT. The larger scale, broader revenue base, and established services segment provide greater consistency in recent performance metrics compared with ONTO’s more concentrated growth profile. Both stocks demonstrate alignment with AI-driven catalysts, yet AMAT’s diversification may support steadier positioning in varied market conditions. This assessment reflects probabilistic modeling rather than certainty and does not constitute investment advice.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMAT is a Buy and ONTO is a Buy.
| AMAT | ONTO | AMAT / ONTO | |
| Capitalization | 353B | 12.9B | 2,736% |
| EBITDA | 11.5B | 239M | 4,812% |
| Gain YTD | 81.289 | 74.826 | 109% |
| P/E Ratio | 38.36 | 98.66 | 39% |
| Revenue | 30.8B | 1.12B | 2,750% |
| Total Cash | 9.23B | 1.88B | 491% |
| Total Debt | 7.35B | 1.47B | 499% |
AMAT | ONTO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 67 Overvalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMAT's Valuation (67) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (74) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the null industry is in the same range as AMAT (44) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's SMR Rating (25) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ONTO (80) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (44) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the null industry is in the same range as AMAT (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
| AMAT | ONTO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 85% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 83% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 87% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 83% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 65% | 7 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 69% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMAT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while ONTO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AMAT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ONTO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMAT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONTO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMAT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
- ONTO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AMAT (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +9.44% price change this week, while ONTO (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was +10.33% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +12.82%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMAT is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
ONTO is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+12.82% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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AMAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMAT has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMAT jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 100% | +4.42% | ||
| LRCX - AMAT | 91% Closely correlated | +4.92% | ||
| KLAC - AMAT | 87% Closely correlated | +3.94% | ||
| ONTO - AMAT | 83% Closely correlated | +4.76% | ||
| NVMI - AMAT | 82% Closely correlated | +1.88% | ||
| ASML - AMAT | 82% Closely correlated | +1.87% | ||
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ONTO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONTO has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONTO jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONTO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO | 100% | +4.76% | ||
| AMAT - ONTO | 83% Closely correlated | +4.42% | ||
| LRCX - ONTO | 82% Closely correlated | +4.92% | ||
| KLAC - ONTO | 81% Closely correlated | +3.94% | ||
| ENTG - ONTO | 79% Closely correlated | +0.63% | ||
| UCTT - ONTO | 78% Closely correlated | +3.41% | ||
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