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AMAT vs ONTO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Materials (AMAT) vs. Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AMAT (Applied Materials) is the world's largest semiconductor equipment maker, while ONTO (Onto Innovation) is a smaller, fast-growing process-control specialist.
- Both stocks are riding the same AI-driven tailwind in advanced packaging, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and leading-edge logic, yet their risk profiles differ sharply.
- ONTO is growing faster on a percentage basis and recently posted record results and a backlog above $1 billion for the first time.
- AMAT offers greater scale, product diversification, and a growing dividend, supported by record revenue of roughly $9.1 billion in its latest fiscal quarter.
- Both trade at premium valuations after substantial rallies, making valuation a central consideration in any stock comparison.
Introduction
Semiconductor capital equipment has become one of the market's clearest ways to gain exposure to the artificial intelligence build-out, and these two names sit at opposite ends of that theme's size spectrum. AMAT is a diversified mega-cap spanning deposition, etch, inspection, and services, while ONTO is a mid-cap focused on inspection, metrology, and advanced-packaging lithography. Comparing them highlights the trade-off between scale and stability versus specialization and faster growth. This relative performance and market positioning analysis is relevant for investors weighing a broad semiconductor-equipment holding against a higher-beta, process-control pure play.
AMAT Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Materials is the largest semiconductor equipment supplier by revenue, serving foundry, logic, and memory customers across deposition, etch, and related technologies, plus a growing Applied Global Services (AGS) segment. In recent market activity, the stock has roughly doubled over the past year, trading in the low $530s, as AI-driven demand for leading-edge logic, DRAM (dynamic random-access memory), HBM, and advanced packaging accelerated. The company recently reported record revenue of about $9.1 billion, up 25% year over year, and raised its dividend 15%, marking nine consecutive years of increases.
Sentiment has been supported by a steady stream of catalysts: an expanded partnership with Intel, collaboration with BE Semiconductor (Besi) on hybrid bonding, a planned acquisition of ASMPT's NEXX business to broaden panel-level packaging, and its EPIC innovation center. At the same time, China accounts for roughly 27% of revenue, keeping export-control and geopolitical exposure in focus, and a premium price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of roughly 9.6x leaves limited room for disappointment.
ONTO Overview and Recent Performance
Onto Innovation supplies process-control systems—including wafer inspection, 3D metrology, and lithography for advanced packaging—that help chipmakers improve yield across the semiconductor value chain. The stock has been one of the sector's strongest performers, up more than 125% over the past year and recently trading near $305. In its latest reported quarter, revenue rose about 35% year over year to a record $343 million, with non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.93 and a 57% gross margin.
Momentum is being driven by two platforms: Dragonfly G5 for high-throughput packaging inspection and Atlas G6 for transistor metrology at leading-edge nodes. Management raised its full-year advanced-packaging growth outlook to roughly 80%, and backlog exceeded $1.1 billion for the first time, with 30–40% extending into 2027. A planned $710 million investment for a 27% stake in X-ray specialist Rigaku Holdings further broadens its technology portfolio. Relative to AMAT, ONTO's smaller customer base and higher concentration amplify both upside and downside.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and set of covered securities. Because market conditions shift, only a select group of bots—those whose signals and statistics are most suitable for the current environment—earn a place in the curated Trending AI Robots section. This page helps traders filter through the noise by surfacing the bots currently showing the strongest alignment with prevailing trends, whether they trade AMAT, ONTO, or thousands of other securities. Exploring the featured robots can offer a data-driven way to monitor relative strength and momentum shifts across the semiconductor sector.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is scale versus specialization. AMAT spans multiple process steps and a large installed base, smoothing its exposure to any single technology cycle and supporting a dividend. ONTO concentrates on process control and advanced packaging—areas seeing outsized growth as chip complexity rises—but with a smaller customer base and more volatility.
On growth, ONTO is expanding faster in percentage terms and has repeatedly raised guidance, while AMAT delivers larger absolute revenue and cash flow. On risk, AMAT carries meaningful China concentration and a rich valuation, whereas ONTO faces higher execution and concentration risk alongside a smaller float and elevated multiple. In sector terms, both benefit from the same AI capex (capital expenditure) cycle, but ONTO's leverage to that cycle is more direct and more sensitive.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative momentum, and near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely show a modest preference for ONTO in the current environment. Its accelerating revenue growth, record backlog extending into 2027, and raised advanced-packaging outlook suggest stronger and more persistent momentum, while its smaller size could allow faster appreciation if the AI packaging cycle continues. That said, AMAT offers greater stability, diversification, and a reliable dividend, which may better suit risk-conscious investors. The comparative edge is probabilistic rather than definitive and could shift quickly with changes in chip-demand trends or valuation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMAT is a Hold and ONTO is a Hold.
AMAT | ONTO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 26 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 39 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMAT's Valuation (71) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (76) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's Profit vs Risk Rating (39) in the null industry is in the same range as AMAT (40) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's SMR Rating (25) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ONTO (80) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (39) in the null industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the null industry is in the same range as AMAT (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
| AMAT | ONTO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 88% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 79% | 12 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 6 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMAT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while ONTO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AMAT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ONTO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMAT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONTO’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMAT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ONTO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AMAT (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -8.25% price change this week, while ONTO (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -15.88% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -11.51%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMAT is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
ONTO is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-11.51% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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AMAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMAT has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMAT jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 100% | -1.87% | ||
| LRCX - AMAT | 91% Closely correlated | -2.91% | ||
| KLAC - AMAT | 87% Closely correlated | -2.79% | ||
| ONTO - AMAT | 84% Closely correlated | -7.06% | ||
| NVMI - AMAT | 82% Closely correlated | -3.57% | ||
| ASML - AMAT | 81% Closely correlated | -1.69% | ||
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ONTO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONTO has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONTO jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONTO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO | 100% | -7.06% | ||
| AMAT - ONTO | 84% Closely correlated | -1.87% | ||
| LRCX - ONTO | 83% Closely correlated | -2.91% | ||
| KLAC - ONTO | 81% Closely correlated | -2.79% | ||
| NVMI - ONTO | 81% Closely correlated | -3.57% | ||
| ENTG - ONTO | 80% Closely correlated | -3.49% | ||
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