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AMR vs HCC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) vs. Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AMR and HCC are U.S. producers of metallurgical coal used in steelmaking, but they are moving in sharply different financial directions.
- HCC is growing volumes, generating positive earnings, and recently declared a $2.00-per-share special dividend, while AMR posted a recent quarterly net loss amid rising cash costs and terminal-capacity constraints.
- Relative performance strongly favors HCC, which has risen meaningfully over the past year, whereas AMR has declined and trades near the lower end of its 52-week range.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Warrior Met Coal (HCC) is the favored ticker of the two, based on trend consistency, profitability, and stronger cash-flow catalysts.
- For deeper context, explore AMR Major News and AMR Today's Price Move, as well as HCC Major News and HCC Today's Price Move.
- To see which automated strategies are currently favored by the market's leading AI systems, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the metallurgical coal sector often weigh established producers against those expanding into new, lower-cost capacity. This stock comparison examines Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) and Warrior Met Coal (HCC), two NYSE-listed miners whose recent trajectories illustrate contrasting business models within the same commodity cycle. While both companies sell coking coal into global steelmaking markets, their growth drivers, cost profiles, and earnings momentum differ considerably. Traders and longer-term investors focused on relative performance, market positioning, and sector exposure may find this side-by-side review useful for understanding which name currently carries stronger fundamental and momentum characteristics.
AMR Overview and Recent Performance
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR), headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee, produces and sells metallurgical and thermal coal from mines in Virginia and West Virginia. It is a leading U.S. supplier of metallurgical products to the global steel industry. In recent weeks, the stock has faced notable headwinds, trading in the mid-$140s to low-$160s range and sitting near the lower end of its 52-week range after a decline of roughly 15% over the past year.
Sentiment has been pressured by rising cash costs of coal sales, a quarterly net loss, and a damaged stacker reclaimer at the Dominion Terminal Associates export facility that management expects will constrain shipment upside for roughly two years. Although met-segment realizations improved and sales volumes rebounded, higher per-ton costs narrowed margins, and 2027 cost guidance sits above prior levels. Analysts currently hold a consensus "Hold" rating on the shares.
HCC Overview and Recent Performance
Warrior Met Coal (HCC), headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama, produces and exports hard-coking coal used in steelmaking, with underground mines in Alabama and strong access to seaborne markets across Asia, Europe, and South America. Its business has been transformed by the Blue Creek mine, a world-class longwall asset that began production ahead of schedule and has materially expanded output.
In recent weeks, the company reported sharply higher sales volumes, net income, and adjusted EBITDA (a measure of operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), supported by Blue Creek's ramp. Management also declared a $2.00-per-share special dividend alongside its regular quarterly dividend, reflecting strong free cash flow generation. The stock has advanced meaningfully over the past year and trades on a forward P/E (price-to-earnings) basis that is generally higher than AMR's but supported by positive earnings. Analyst consensus on HCC is "Buy."
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a systematic edge, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of automated trading strategies. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only the strategies best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this featured section. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and the specific tickers they monitor, giving users access to a broad spectrum of approaches rather than a one-size-fits-all signal. The curated list is designed to surface the robots currently demonstrating the most relevant, adaptive behavior. Investors comparing names like AMR and HCC may find it useful to review which automated systems are actively engaged with these stocks. Explore the Trending AI Robots selection to see current favorites.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two miners is the direction of earnings and cash flow. HCC is in a growth phase, with Blue Creek expanding production volumes and driving higher revenue and adjusted EBITDA, which has translated into shareholder returns through a special dividend. AMR, by contrast, is navigating a more constrained setup, with rising costs and export-capacity limitations offsetting improving volumes.
On market positioning, both companies are levered to metallurgical coal prices and global steel demand, which remain sensitive to economic conditions and geopolitical developments. However, HCC's low-cost longwall operations and diversified export routes provide a comparatively resilient cost structure. AMR retains a strong balance sheet with low debt and substantial liquidity, but its near-term margin compression and negative trailing earnings weigh on sentiment. Risk profiles also differ: HCC carries execution risk tied to the Blue Creek ramp, while AMR faces logistics and cost inflation risks. On valuation, AMR screens cheaper on forward earnings, but HCC's profitability and momentum currently dominate the relative-performance picture.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI analysis would currently favor Warrior Met Coal (HCC) over Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR). The supporting signals include stronger trend consistency, positive and growing earnings, rising production volumes, and tangible catalysts such as the special dividend and free cash flow generation. By comparison, AMR's negative trailing earnings, rising cost guidance, and export-capacity constraints present a less favorable relative setup. While market conditions can shift and both names remain exposed to commodity-price volatility, the current alignment of momentum, profitability, and catalysts leans toward HCC. This assessment reflects a probabilistic view of relative positioning rather than a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMR is a Buy and HCC is a StrongBuy.
AMR sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On November 10, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for AMR moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 55 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 46 of the 55 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AMR's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 25 of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMR just turned positive on November 10, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +6.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMR advanced for three days, in 254 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
AMR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMR as a result. In 62 of 70 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The 50-day moving average for AMR moved below the 200-day moving average on November 05, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMR entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 13 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.251) is normal, around the industry mean (1.266). AMR has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-41.092) as compared to the industry average of (-9.130). AMR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.730) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.322). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.077) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.179) is also within normal values, averaging (1.284).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AMR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
HCC's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HCC turned positive on November 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where HCC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 43 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HCC's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HCC as a result. In 67 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +6.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HCC advanced for three days, in 269 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
HCC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HCC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for HCC entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating for company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), which means the company is slightly undervalued. The valuation of the company is based on a proprietary formula which takes into account a set of fundamentals and gives us an estimate of the price per share for the company. We then compare this estimate with the current price per share. As a result, this company is rated as undervalued in the industry. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: HCC's P/B Ratio (1.940) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.266). HCC has a moderately high P/E Ratio (20.228) as compared to the industry average of (-9.130). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (0.322). Dividend Yield (0.095) settles around the average of (0.077) among similar stocks. HCC's P/S Ratio (2.910) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.284).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HCC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
AMR | HCC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 13 Undervalued | 30 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 70 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMR's Valuation (13) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as HCC (30) in the Coal industry. This means that AMR’s stock grew similarly to HCC’s over the last 12 months.
HCC's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Coal industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AMR (78) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that HCC’s stock grew somewhat faster than AMR’s over the last 12 months.
HCC's SMR Rating (70) in the Coal industry is in the same range as AMR (92) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that HCC’s stock grew similarly to AMR’s over the last 12 months.
HCC's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Coal industry is in the same range as AMR (70) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that HCC’s stock grew similarly to AMR’s over the last 12 months.
AMR's P/E Growth Rating (49) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HCC (96) in the Coal industry. This means that AMR’s stock grew somewhat faster than HCC’s over the last 12 months.
| AMR | HCC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 83% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 80% | 1 day ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while HCC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AMR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HCC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HCC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HCC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AMR (@Coal) experienced а +3.28% price change this week, while HCC (@Coal) price change was +8.63% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Coal industry was +2.65%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMR is expected to report earnings on Feb 26, 2027.
HCC is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Coal (+2.65% weekly)Companies that mine, process and distribute coal and lignite. Coal goes towards around 30% of global energy production, and is heavily relied upon for electricity generation. Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., Peabody Energy Corporation and Arch Coal Inc. are major coal companies in the U.S.
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AMR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor tells us that AMR and HNRG have been poorly correlated (+31% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that AMR and HNRG's prices will move in lockstep.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMR | 100% | -0.42% | ||
| HNRG - AMR | 31% Poorly correlated | +8.07% | ||
| HCC - AMR | 29% Poorly correlated | -2.28% | ||
| METC - AMR | 26% Poorly correlated | +10.37% | ||
| SXC - AMR | 11% Poorly correlated | +0.19% | ||
| METCB - AMR | 10% Poorly correlated | +3.05% | ||
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HCC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HCC has been loosely correlated with SXC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 42% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HCC jumps, then SXC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HCC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCC | 100% | -2.28% | ||
| SXC - HCC | 42% Loosely correlated | +0.19% | ||
| HNRG - HCC | 37% Loosely correlated | +8.07% | ||
| AREC - HCC | 10% Poorly correlated | -0.46% | ||
| METC - HCC | 0% Poorly correlated | +10.37% | ||
| METCB - HCC | -3% Poorly correlated | +3.05% | ||
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