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AVAL vs CIB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores (AVAL) vs. Bancolombia (CIB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AVAL and CIB are leading Colombian financial institutions, but they occupy different positions: CIB is the country's largest bank, while AVAL is a diversified financial conglomerate.
- CIB delivered a record quarterly return on equity (ROE) of roughly 28.7% in its most recent quarter and raised full-year guidance, prompting upgrades from Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan.
- AVAL also posted a strong recent quarter, but analyst sentiment is more mixed, including a recent downgrade by J.P. Morgan.
- On relative performance, CIB has gained sharply over the past year, while AVAL has advanced more modestly.
- Both stocks carry shared Colombia-specific risks, including elevated interest rates, high inflation, and fiscal uncertainty.
Introduction
Investors tracking Latin American financials frequently weigh two of Colombia's most prominent listed institutions: AVAL, the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) of Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores, and CIB, the ADR of Grupo Cibest, the holding company behind Bancolombia. Although both operate in the same market, their business models, momentum, and market positioning differ in meaningful ways. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors evaluating exposure to Colombia's banking sector, whether through a diversified conglomerate or a concentrated, market-leading lender. Understanding their relative performance, growth drivers, and risk profiles can help clarify which name may better suit a given strategy in the current environment.
AVAL Overview and Recent Performance
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores is a diversified Colombian financial conglomerate operating four commercial banks — Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular, and Banco AV Villas — alongside the pension fund manager Porvenir and the merchant bank Corficolombiana. This structure gives AVAL exposure across banking, pensions, and infrastructure-linked businesses.
In recent weeks, AVAL has shown resilience amid a broader recovery in Colombian financial assets. The company reported its highest quarterly attributable net income in several years during its most recent quarter, supported by loan and deposit growth and a rebound in investment and trading income. However, results have been uneven: an earlier quarter was pressured by a one-time equity tax enacted by the Colombian government, and management has guided toward a conservative full-year return outlook. Analyst sentiment has also softened, with J.P. Morgan recently downgrading the stock to Underweight while trimming its price target. The shares trade below book value and offer a recurring monthly dividend, factors that attract income-focused investors despite ongoing macro headwinds.
CIB Overview and Recent Performance
Grupo Cibest, formerly Bancolombia, is Colombia's largest bank and one of the leading financial services groups in Latin America. It operates across banking, trust, investment banking, and brokerage, with a regional footprint in Panama, Guatemala, and El Salvador, and it has built a sizable digital ecosystem through its Nequi platform, which now counts millions of monetized users.
CIB has been a standout performer in recent months. The company delivered record profitability in its latest quarter, with net income rising sharply year over year and a historic ROE near 28.7%, driven by a net interest margin (NIM) approaching 8% and disciplined cost control. Management raised full-year guidance for both NIM and ROE, while completing strategic moves such as the sale of its Banistmo operation in Panama and the acquisition of Avista Colombia to expand payroll lending. These catalysts have attracted notable analyst upgrades, including a shift to Buy ratings and higher price targets from Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan. The stock has roughly doubled over the trailing year, reflecting strong investor appetite for Colombian financials.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two names is one of business model and concentration. AVAL offers diversification across banking, pensions, and infrastructure, which can cushion earnings from any single segment but may also dilute the impact of strong banking trends. CIB, by contrast, is a more concentrated play on Colombia's dominant lender, giving it higher operating leverage to favorable rate and margin conditions.
On recent momentum, CIB has clearly led, benefiting from record profitability, raised guidance, and a wave of analyst upgrades. AVAL has been steadier but less dynamic, and its analyst coverage has turned more cautious. On valuation and income, the picture flips: AVAL trades at a lower earnings multiple and pays a recurring monthly dividend, while CIB commands a higher multiple after its rally despite a larger headline dividend yield.
Risk profiles overlap heavily. Both are exposed to Colombia's elevated policy rate, inflation, and fiscal deficit, as well as asset-quality concerns in consumer lending. CIB adds regional diversification across Central America, whereas AVAL is more domestically concentrated but spreads risk across non-banking businesses.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and catalyst strength, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CIB in the current market environment. The stock's record profitability, upward-revised guidance, and sustained analyst upgrades point to stronger and more consistent momentum than AVAL has demonstrated recently. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive prediction: AVAL retains a compelling valuation and income appeal, and both names remain sensitive to Colombia's macro and fiscal outlook. The AI's preference would likely reflect CIB's clearer near-term trend and catalyst profile, while acknowledging that shifts in rates or country risk could narrow the gap.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AVAL is a Hold and CIB is a StrongBuy.
AVAL in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026
The 10-day moving average for AVAL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AVAL as a result. In 58 of 101 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AVAL turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 39 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
AVAL moved below its 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AVAL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for AVAL entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AVAL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AVAL advanced for three days, in 147 of 224 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
AVAL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 14 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AVAL's P/B Ratio (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.268). P/E Ratio (0.003) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.430) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. AVAL's P/S Ratio (1.089) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AVAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for CIB turns positive, indicating new upward trend
CIB saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 84 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 74 of the 84 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CIB just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where CIB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
CIB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CIB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 40%.
Following a +2.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CIB advanced for three days, in 258 of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 32 of 61 cases where CIB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CIB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for CIB entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 12 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CIB's P/B Ratio (0.001) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.268). P/E Ratio (0.005) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.470) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.058) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. CIB's P/S Ratio (1.355) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CIB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
AVAL | CIB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 40 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | 12 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 1 | 1 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 1 | 1 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 18 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CIB's Valuation (12) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as AVAL (14) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CIB’s stock grew similarly to AVAL’s over the last 12 months.
CIB's Profit vs Risk Rating (1) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as AVAL (1) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CIB’s stock grew similarly to AVAL’s over the last 12 months.
CIB's SMR Rating (1) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as AVAL (1) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CIB’s stock grew similarly to AVAL’s over the last 12 months.
CIB's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as AVAL (51) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CIB’s stock grew similarly to AVAL’s over the last 12 months.
CIB's P/E Growth Rating (97) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as AVAL (97) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CIB’s stock grew similarly to AVAL’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAL | CIB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 88% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 29 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 60% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAL’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while CIB’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AVAL’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- CIB’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CIB’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- CIB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAL (@Regional Banks) experienced а -3.47% price change this week, while CIB (@Regional Banks) price change was -1.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAL is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
CIB is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.71% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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AVAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVAL has been loosely correlated with CIB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AVAL jumps, then CIB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVAL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAL | 100% | -0.42% | ||
| CIB - AVAL | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.98% | ||
| BSAC - AVAL | 47% Loosely correlated | -3.09% | ||
| BCH - AVAL | 45% Loosely correlated | -2.80% | ||
| BMA - AVAL | 43% Loosely correlated | -2.15% | ||
| BBAR - AVAL | 42% Loosely correlated | -1.81% | ||
More | ||||
CIB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CIB has been loosely correlated with BSAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CIB jumps, then BSAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CIB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIB | 100% | -0.98% | ||
| BSAC - CIB | 57% Loosely correlated | -3.09% | ||
| AVAL - CIB | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.42% | ||
| BCH - CIB | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.80% | ||
| BAP - CIB | 50% Loosely correlated | -4.46% | ||
| IFS - CIB | 44% Loosely correlated | -3.30% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| FNGD | 27.96 | 2.44 | +9.56% |
| MicroSectors FANG+ Index - 3X Inverse Leveraged ETN (FNGD) | |||
| IAT | 59.60 | 0.80 | +1.36% |
| iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF (IAT) | |||
| MULT | 24.50 | 0.07 | +0.29% |
| Franklin Multisector Income ETF (MULT) | |||
| JHMM | 73.25 | -0.14 | -0.19% |
| John Hancock Multifactor Mid Cap ETF (JHMM) | |||
| BUFY | 23.69 | -0.12 | -0.50% |
| FT Vest Laddered International Moderate Buffer ETF (BUFY) | |||