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AVY vs PKG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Avery Dennison (AVY) vs. Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AVY is a global materials science and labeling specialist, while PKG is a leading North American containerboard and corrugated packaging producer — two different exposures within the broader packaging value chain.
- Both companies posted double-digit revenue growth in recent quarters, driven by volume and pricing, but AVY trades at a notably lower valuation multiple than PKG.
- PKG has shown stronger share-price momentum, gaining roughly 11% or more over the past year versus a flatter, more range-bound performance from AVY.
- AVY leans on higher-margin, technology-enabled growth (intelligent labels and RFID), while PKG is integrating its recent Greif acquisition and pushing containerboard price increases.
- Dividend and capital-return profiles differ meaningfully, with PKG recently raising its annual payout by 20% and AVY balancing dividends with buybacks.
- Relative performance and sector positioning suggest a momentum-versus-valuation trade-off that may appeal to different investor styles.
Introduction
Investors scanning the materials and packaging landscape frequently weigh AVY against PKG because both sit inside the same broad industry group yet serve very different customers and end markets. This stock comparison examines how Avery Dennison, a materials science and digital identification leader, and Packaging Corporation of America, a containerboard and corrugated packaging producer, compare on business model, recent momentum, valuation, and market positioning. For traders focused on relative performance and investors evaluating sector exposure, understanding the contrasts between these two names can help clarify where each stock fits within a diversified portfolio or a tactical trading strategy.
AVY Overview and Recent Performance
Avery Dennison (AVY) operates as a global materials science and digital identification company, designing and manufacturing labeling and functional materials, radio-frequency identification (RFID) inlays and tags, and software that connects physical products to digital data. Its roughly $8.9 billion in 2025 sales span industries including apparel, e-commerce, logistics, food, pharmaceuticals, and automotive.
In recent market activity, AVY has delivered steady earnings growth. Its first-quarter adjusted earnings rose about 7% year over year, and second-quarter net sales climbed roughly 11% to around $2.46 billion, with diluted earnings per share (EPS, a company's profit divided by its outstanding shares) improving to $2.67. Management issued full-year EPS guidance in the $9.40 to $9.70 range. The Materials Group segment has been the primary growth engine, while the Solutions Group has been softer in certain categories. Shares have largely traded sideways over the past year, with the stock sitting well below its 52-week high, reflecting a valuation multiple (forward price-to-earnings, or P/E, of roughly 17) that is comparatively modest for the industry. Sentiment has been shaped by disciplined cost control, free cash flow improvement, and ongoing capital returns through dividends and buybacks.
PKG Overview and Recent Performance
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is the third-largest U.S. producer of containerboard and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet paper, operating mills and corrugated products plants that serve food and beverage, agriculture, and e-commerce customers. Its business is more concentrated in North American box and paper production than AVY's global, technology-oriented model.
PKG has shown stronger recent momentum. First-quarter net sales rose about 10.6% to roughly $2.37 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.40, while the company continued integrating its recent acquisition of Greif and began implementing containerboard price increases. The company also announced a 20% increase in its annual dividend, from $5.00 to $6.00 per share. Despite margin pressure from higher freight, fiber, and maintenance costs, investors responded favorably to volume strength and the acquisition synergy story, and the stock has gained roughly 11% or more over the past year, outperforming the broader packaging industry. Its forward P/E near 20 reflects richer expectations than AVY, though its beta (a measure of volatility versus the market) remains low at around 0.77.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks is one of business model and growth driver. AVY is a diversified, technology-forward materials science company whose growth increasingly depends on intelligent labels, RFID adoption, and brand-enhancement solutions, giving it exposure to secular digitization trends as well as global manufacturing cycles. PKG is a capital-intensive, North America-centric containerboard producer whose earnings hinge on box demand, containerboard pricing, and input costs such as fiber and freight.
On valuation, AVY trades at a lower forward P/E (roughly 17) than PKG (near 20), a gap that partly reflects PKG's stronger recent momentum and acquisition-driven growth narrative. On momentum, PKG has the edge, with shares up double digits over the past year while AVY has been more range-bound. Risk profiles also differ: AVY carries currency and global demand sensitivity, while PKG faces margin risk from input costs, maintenance outages, and the execution of its Greif integration and mill restructuring. Both maintain solid balance sheets and shareholder-return programs, but PKG offers a higher dividend yield, whereas AVY pairs its dividend with consistent buybacks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor PKG for its relative trend consistency and positive momentum, supported by rising containerboard prices, strong corrugated volumes, and a meaningful dividend increase that reinforces investor sentiment. AVY, by contrast, presents a more valuation-attractive profile with steady earnings execution, but its flatter price action and softer Solutions Group trends suggest less immediate trend strength. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: a momentum-oriented model would lean toward PKG, while a value-oriented framework might find AVY's lower multiple and technology-enabled growth appealing. The appropriate choice ultimately depends on an investor's strategy, timeframe, and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AVY is a Buy and PKG is a Hold.
AVY sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for AVY moved above the 200-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AVY as a result. In 49 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AVY just turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where AVY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
AVY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AVY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 40%.
Following a +3.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AVY advanced for three days, in 141 of 301 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AVY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
AVY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AVY entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. AVY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AVY's P/B Ratio (5.842) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.311). P/E Ratio (19.525) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.417). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.922) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.033) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.438) is also within normal values, averaging (1.259).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AVY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
PKG in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
PKG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 27 of 37 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PKG as a result. In 70 of 99 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PKG just turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where PKG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +4.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PKG advanced for three days, in 198 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PKG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
PKG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PKG entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PKG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.568) is normal, around the industry mean (1.311). P/E Ratio (30.918) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.417). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.507) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.033) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.168) is also within normal values, averaging (1.259).
AVY | PKG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 41 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 77 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 24 | 32 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 32 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PKG's Valuation (77) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as AVY (80). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to AVY’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is significantly better than the same rating for AVY (100). This means that PKG’s stock grew significantly faster than AVY’s over the last 12 months.
AVY's SMR Rating (32) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as PKG (57). This means that AVY’s stock grew similarly to PKG’s over the last 12 months.
AVY's Price Growth Rating (24) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as PKG (32). This means that AVY’s stock grew similarly to PKG’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as AVY (32). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to AVY’s over the last 12 months.
| AVY | PKG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 59% | 23 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 2 days ago 48% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVY’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while PKG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AVY’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PKG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PKG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- PKG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AVY (@Containers/Packaging) experienced а +4.19% price change this week, while PKG (@Containers/Packaging) price change was +3.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Containers/Packaging industry was +2.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.76%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.27%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVY is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
PKG is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Containers/Packaging (+2.42% weekly)The containers/packing sector includes companies that manufacture containers (like plastic and aluminum food containers, glass bottles, metal cans, cardboard, storage and waste bags, giftwraps etc.) and provide packing services. Food-and-beverage and household products are major markets for this business. Several companies in this industry cater to international markets in addition to serving domestic customers. Consumer spending habits could potentially affect this industry’s performance. Some products, that use oil-based materials as inputs, are likely to see their costs of production get impacted (to some extent) by energy price movements. The ever-expanding e-commerce market has only supercharged the amount/frequency of goods shipped domestically and across borders, thereby creating ample potential opportunities for containers and packaging businesses. Ball Corporation, International Paper Company, Amcor Plc and Packaging Corporation of America are some of the largest U.S. companies in this industry.
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AVY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVY has been loosely correlated with AMCR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AVY jumps, then AMCR could also see price increases.
PKG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PKG has been closely correlated with SW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PKG jumps, then SW could also see price increases.