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BHP vs RIO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BHP Group (BHP) vs. Rio Tinto (RIO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BHP Group and Rio Tinto are leading global diversified miners with substantial exposure to iron ore and copper.
- BHP delivered stronger year-over-year share price gains of approximately 60% through June 2026, compared with around 44% for Rio Tinto.
- Recent quarterly updates showed BHP achieving record iron ore output while Rio Tinto reported iron ore sales above estimates but copper production misses due to operational issues.
- Both companies trade in a materials sector influenced by commodity prices, with analysts issuing predominantly Hold ratings amid mixed price target adjustments.
- Market sentiment reflects resilience in iron ore alongside copper growth strategies for both firms over recent market activity.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs in operational execution and valuation multiples in the current environment.
Introduction
BHP Group (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO) represent two of the world’s largest diversified mining companies, each with major operations in iron ore, copper, and other commodities. This comparison examines their recent performance, business profiles, and market positioning to assist investors and traders evaluating resource sector exposure. The analysis focuses on observable trends from recent market activity, including production updates and share price movements, providing context for those assessing relative momentum and risk factors within the materials industry.
BHP Overview and Recent Performance
BHP Group is a major producer of iron ore, copper, nickel, and potash, with significant assets in Australia and the Americas. In recent market activity, the company reported record iron ore output for fiscal year 2026 alongside sustained copper production levels. Share price performance showed gains of roughly 60% over the 12 months ending June 30, 2026, outperforming broader market benchmarks. Recent analyst commentary has centered on Hold ratings, with some adjustments to price targets reflecting copper price strength and long-term growth pipelines. Sentiment has been supported by operational resilience and commodity price trends during recent weeks.
RIO Overview and Recent Performance
Rio Tinto operates as a leading global miner with core exposure to iron ore and copper across multiple continents. During recent market activity, the company posted second-quarter iron ore sales above estimates, supported by strong operational performance, though copper output faced headwinds from mine outages. Share price returns reached approximately 44% over the prior 12 months, with year-to-date gains around 14%. Upcoming half-year results expected in late July have drawn investor attention. Analyst views include a mix of Hold and Buy ratings, with focus on cost management and production guidance amid fluctuating commodity markets.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BHP Group maintains a larger market capitalization than Rio Tinto, with broader diversification into nickel and potash alongside core iron ore and copper operations. Rio Tinto emphasizes iron ore efficiency and copper expansion, including projects such as Simandou. Recent momentum favored BHP through stronger fiscal-year gains, while Rio Tinto showed resilience in iron ore sales but encountered copper production variability. Risk factors for both include commodity price volatility and operational disruptions, with BHP exhibiting potentially more stable output trends in recent periods. Sector exposure remains aligned, though differences in cost structures and growth pipelines create distinct positioning. Market sentiment reflects balanced analyst caution across both names, with valuation multiples indicating varied appeal depending on earnings growth outlooks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency in production metrics, relative share price stability, and positioning amid commodity catalysts, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a probabilistic edge to BHP Group over Rio Tinto. Stronger year-over-year performance and record output levels provide supportive signals, though Rio Tinto’s upcoming results and iron ore sales beat introduce potential for convergence. The assessment remains data-driven and subject to evolving market conditions without definitive forecasts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BHP is a Buy and RIO is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BHP’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileRIO’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BHP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- RIO’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BHP’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RIO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BHP’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- RIO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BHP (@Other Metals/Minerals) experienced а +0.92% price change this week, while RIO (@Other Metals/Minerals) price change was +6.17% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Metals/Minerals industry was -2.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -15.10%, and the average quarterly price growth was -27.78%.
Reported Earning Dates
BHP is expected to report earnings on Aug 17, 2026.
RIO is expected to report earnings on Oct 13, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Metals/Minerals (-2.05% weekly)The category includes companies that explore for, mine and extract metals, such as copper, diamonds, nickel, cobalt ore, lead, zinc and uranium. BHP, Rio Tinto and Southern Copper Corporation are major players in this space.
| BHP | RIO | BHP / RIO | |
| Capitalization | 215B | 157B | 137% |
| EBITDA | 29B | 26.2B | 111% |
| Gain YTD | 42.710 | 24.401 | 175% |
| P/E Ratio | 20.99 | 13.12 | 160% |
| Revenue | 54B | 61.8B | 87% |
| Total Cash | 13.8B | 9.51B | 145% |
| Total Debt | 28B | 22.9B | 122% |
BHP | RIO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 11 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 7 Undervalued | 2 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 96 | 96 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RIO's Valuation (2) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as BHP (7). This means that RIO’s stock grew similarly to BHP’s over the last 12 months.
RIO's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as BHP (28). This means that RIO’s stock grew similarly to BHP’s over the last 12 months.
RIO's SMR Rating (96) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as BHP (96). This means that RIO’s stock grew similarly to BHP’s over the last 12 months.
BHP's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as RIO (43). This means that BHP’s stock grew similarly to RIO’s over the last 12 months.
BHP's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as RIO (22). This means that BHP’s stock grew similarly to RIO’s over the last 12 months.
| BHP | RIO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 65% | 5 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 59% | 11 days ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 40% |
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BHP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BHP has been closely correlated with RIO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BHP jumps, then RIO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BHP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHP | 100% | -1.64% | ||
| RIO - BHP | 88% Closely correlated | -0.34% | ||
| VALE - BHP | 75% Closely correlated | +0.47% | ||
| WRN - BHP | 58% Loosely correlated | -3.32% | ||
| NEXA - BHP | 57% Loosely correlated | -2.36% | ||
| SKE - BHP | 57% Loosely correlated | -2.85% | ||
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