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BHP vs RIO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BHP Group (BHP) vs. Rio Tinto (RIO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BHP has outperformed RIO year-to-date with approximately 35% returns compared to 27%, driven by strong copper contributions.
- Both stocks have surged over 70% in the past year amid commodity rallies, particularly copper outpacing iron ore.
- RIO offers a higher dividend yield at around 4.0% versus BHP's 3.3%.
- BHP trades at a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 19.8 compared to RIO's 16.4, reflecting growth expectations in copper.
- Recent production updates show strength in copper for both, with RIO reporting 9% year-over-year copper equivalent growth in Q1 2026.
- BHP holds a larger market capitalization at $202 billion versus RIO's $162 billion.
Introduction
BHP Group (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO) are two of the world's largest mining companies, both heavily exposed to iron ore and increasingly to copper amid the global energy transition. This stock comparison is relevant for investors seeking diversified exposure to commodities, particularly those tracking relative performance in cyclical sectors like metals and mining. Traders focused on momentum may note recent outperformance, while long-term holders could weigh dividend yields and growth catalysts. In the current market environment, understanding their head-to-head dynamics helps evaluate positioning amid fluctuating Chinese demand and copper supply constraints.
BHP Overview and Recent Performance
BHP Group is a diversified global resources company with major operations in iron ore, copper, coal, and potash. In recent market activity, BHP shares have exhibited strong upward momentum, gaining around 35% year-to-date and over 70% in the past year, with prices hovering near 52-week highs around $80. This performance has been bolstered by copper overtaking iron ore as the top profit contributor, driven by robust demand and operational expansions like the Antamina silver streaming deal. Sentiment has shifted positively on BHP's copper strategy and nine-month operational review highlighting excellence, despite broader iron ore pressures from China. The stock's beta of 0.80 indicates moderate volatility relative to the market.
RIO Overview and Recent Performance
Rio Tinto is a leading international mining group producing iron ore, aluminum, copper, and diamonds, with significant Pilbara operations. Recently, RIO shares have climbed about 27% year-to-date and over 70% annually, trading near $100 and 52-week peaks. Key influences include first-quarter 2026 production results showing 9% copper equivalent growth and steady Pilbara iron ore guidance of 323-338 million tonnes. Financing packages and infrastructure advancements, like Kitimat conveyors, have supported sentiment, though iron ore price softness lingers. With a lower beta of 0.64, RIO offers relative stability amid copper's rise.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both BHP and RIO operate similar diversified business models centered on iron ore and copper, but BHP emphasizes potash growth while RIO has broader aluminum exposure. Growth drivers pivot toward copper production expansions amid energy transition demands, contrasting with maturing iron ore assets sensitive to China. Recent momentum favors BHP's 35% YTD gains over RIO's 27%, though both benefit from copper's outperformance. Risk factors include commodity price volatility and geopolitical tensions; RIO's lower beta signals less sensitivity. Sector exposure overlaps heavily in metals, but RIO edges on dividend yield (4.0% vs. 3.3%) and P/E valuation. Market sentiment leans positive on copper catalysts for both, with trade-offs in size and stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward BHP based on superior recent trend consistency, stronger year-to-date momentum, and proactive copper positioning amid rising demand. While RIO offers attractive yield and valuation, BHP's operational catalysts suggest higher probability of near-term outperformance in the current environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BHP is a Hold and RIO is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BHP’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileRIO’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BHP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- RIO’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BHP’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RIO’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BHP’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 5 bearish.
- RIO’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
BHP (@Other Metals/Minerals) experienced а -0.15% price change this week, while RIO (@Other Metals/Minerals) price change was -3.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Metals/Minerals industry was +3.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.56%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
BHP is expected to report earnings on Aug 17, 2026.
RIO is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Metals/Minerals (+3.13% weekly)The category includes companies that explore for, mine and extract metals, such as copper, diamonds, nickel, cobalt ore, lead, zinc and uranium. BHP, Rio Tinto and Southern Copper Corporation are major players in this space.
| BHP | RIO | BHP / RIO | |
| Capitalization | 219B | 159B | 138% |
| EBITDA | 29B | 22B | 132% |
| Gain YTD | 48.419 | 28.550 | 170% |
| P/E Ratio | 21.83 | 16.45 | 133% |
| Revenue | 54B | 53.7B | 101% |
| Total Cash | 13.8B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 28B | 23.5B | 119% |
BHP | RIO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 8 Undervalued | 2 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 25 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 96 | 96 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RIO's Valuation (2) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as BHP (8). This means that RIO’s stock grew similarly to BHP’s over the last 12 months.
RIO's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as BHP (25). This means that RIO’s stock grew similarly to BHP’s over the last 12 months.
RIO's SMR Rating (96) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as BHP (96). This means that RIO’s stock grew similarly to BHP’s over the last 12 months.
BHP's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as RIO (42). This means that BHP’s stock grew similarly to RIO’s over the last 12 months.
BHP's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as RIO (10). This means that BHP’s stock grew similarly to RIO’s over the last 12 months.
| BHP | RIO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 5 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 50% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | 6 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 50% |
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RIO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RIO has been closely correlated with BHP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RIO jumps, then BHP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RIO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIO | 100% | -2.52% | ||
| BHP - RIO | 87% Closely correlated | -2.76% | ||
| VALE - RIO | 76% Closely correlated | -0.71% | ||
| TECK - RIO | 69% Closely correlated | -2.13% | ||
| WRN - RIO | 55% Loosely correlated | -6.32% | ||
| SKE - RIO | 52% Loosely correlated | -4.33% | ||
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