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BHP vs RIO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BHP Group (BHP) vs. Rio Tinto (RIO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BHP is the world's largest listed miner, and copper recently overtook iron ore as its leading source of operating earnings for the first time.
- RIO remains more heavily weighted to iron ore, with its Pilbara operations and the Simandou ramp-up anchoring the investment case.
- BHP's latest quarterly report showed record iron ore output but a sharp copper production miss tied to weather, maintenance, and safety-related stoppages.
- RIO delivered steady iron ore sales and strong Oyu Tolgoi copper growth, yet its shares have pulled back roughly 23% from their June peak on weaker iron ore prices.
- Relative performance has diverged recently, with BHP's diversified copper earnings cushioning iron ore weakness more effectively than RIO's portfolio.
- For additional context, explore BHP Major News and BHP Today's Price Move, as well as RIO Major News and RIO Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are currently positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
BHP Group Limited (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO) are two of the most closely watched diversified miners in the world, and their stocks are frequently paired in a head-to-head stock comparison. Both generate substantial cash flow from iron ore while expanding into copper, a metal increasingly tied to electrification, power grids, and data-centre demand. This comparison is relevant to income-oriented investors weighing dividend yield, momentum traders tracking commodity-price swings, and long-term investors assessing how each company is positioned for the energy transition. Recent weeks have highlighted a key divergence: BHP's copper-heavy earnings mix has offered a different risk profile than RIO's more iron-ore-centric model.
BHP Overview and Recent Performance
BHP is a diversified resources group mining iron ore, copper, steelmaking coal, and energy coal, while developing the Jansen potash project in Canada. In its most recent quarterly operational review, BHP reported record first-quarter performance at its Western Australia Iron Ore mines and ports, with iron ore production rising to about 66.5 million metric tons. Copper, however, fell 19% year over year to roughly 400,700 metric tons, reflecting lower planned grades, scheduled maintenance, severe weather in Chile, a conveyor failure at Carrapateena, and safety-related stoppages at Escondida. Management left full-year copper guidance unchanged, signalling the shortfall is viewed as timing-related. Notably, copper overtook iron ore as BHP's main profit driver for the first time on an annual basis, with copper and by-products such as gold and uranium generating the larger share of operating earnings. Sentiment has also been shaped by leadership change, with a new chief executive taking over earlier this year, and by progress on the Jansen potash project, which is substantially complete ahead of first production.
RIO Overview and Recent Performance
Rio Tinto is a global diversified miner whose portfolio is anchored by Pilbara iron ore, with additional contributions from copper, aluminium, and an emerging lithium business. In its recent third-quarter update, Rio Tinto reported global iron ore sales of 90.8 million metric tons, up 3% year over year, while Pilbara shipments rose 2%. Copper output was broadly flat, but the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia posted a strong double-digit increase as it ramps up. The Simandou project in Guinea reached an early annualised run-rate of around 10 million metric tons per year, with the full ramp-up still ahead. Despite steady operational delivery, Rio Tinto shares have retreated roughly 23% from their all-time high reached earlier in the year, pressured by iron ore prices trading near multi-year lows, weaker Chinese steel demand, and rising seaborne supply. Management has emphasised capital discipline, including progress on a multi-billion-dollar capital release programme.
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a more systematic approach to these stocks, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of the platform's AI trading bots. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI-powered trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only a select group earns a place in this section based on their suitability to current market conditions. These bots span a wide range of trading styles, strategies, timeframes, performance statistics, and ticker universes, so no single approach fits every investor. Because each bot is designed to adapt to shifting market regimes, the featured list evolves as conditions change. Exploring the Trending AI Robots can help traders identify automated strategies that align with their own objectives and risk tolerance.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most meaningful contrast between BHP and RIO lies in commodity mix and, by extension, risk exposure. BHP now derives more than half of its operating earnings from copper and its by-products, giving it greater leverage to electrification and data-centre demand while still carrying meaningful iron ore exposure. Rio Tinto, by contrast, remains predominantly an iron ore business, with copper, aluminium, and lithium serving as growth and diversification levers. This difference has shaped relative performance in recent market activity: BHP's stronger realised copper prices have partially offset softer iron ore, whereas RIO has been more directly exposed to the slide in the iron ore benchmark. On growth catalysts, RIO's Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and Simandou expansion offer visible volume growth, while BHP's pipeline leans on copper projects such as Escondida's new concentrator and Olympic Dam, plus Jansen potash. Both face similar macro risks, including Chinese property weakness, trade uncertainty, and elevated energy and freight costs, but their differing commodity weightings mean these pressures flow through their earnings differently.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings diversification, and catalyst positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favour BHP in the current environment. BHP's copper-led earnings mix has provided a more stable offset to iron ore weakness, and its unchanged full-year guidance suggests recent operational disruptions are largely temporary. Rio Tinto's operational execution remains solid, but its heavier iron ore exposure makes its near-term trajectory more sensitive to a commodity price that has been trending lower. This assessment reflects probabilistic analysis of current market positioning rather than a definitive prediction, and the relative advantage could shift quickly if iron ore prices recover or copper momentum fades.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BHP is a StrongBuy and RIO is a Buy.
BHP's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BHP turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where BHP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BHP's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 61 cases where BHP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +6.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BHP advanced for three days, in 216 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
BHP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BHP as a result. In 46 of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BHP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator for BHP entered a downward trend on October 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BHP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.208) is normal, around the industry mean (7.183). P/E Ratio (21.131) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-0.690). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.440) is also within normal values, averaging (1.026). BHP's Dividend Yield (0.097) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.015). P/S Ratio (3.643) is also within normal values, averaging (283.864).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
RIO's RSI Indicator slumps into oversold zone
The RSI Indicator for RIO moved into overbought territory on October 29, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RIO advanced for three days, in 238 of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
RIO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on RIO as a result. In 44 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for RIO turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
The 10-day moving average for RIO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RIO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator for RIO entered a downward trend on October 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 27 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.068) is normal, around the industry mean (7.183). P/E Ratio (11.177) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-0.690). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.026). RIO's Dividend Yield (0.101) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.015). P/S Ratio (2.541) is also within normal values, averaging (283.864).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RIO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
BHP | RIO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 67 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 66 Overvalued | 27 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 99 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 41 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RIO's Valuation (27) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BHP (66). This means that RIO’s stock grew somewhat faster than BHP’s over the last 12 months.
BHP's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as RIO (34). This means that BHP’s stock grew similarly to RIO’s over the last 12 months.
BHP's SMR Rating (99) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as RIO (99). This means that BHP’s stock grew similarly to RIO’s over the last 12 months.
BHP's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as RIO (60). This means that BHP’s stock grew similarly to RIO’s over the last 12 months.
BHP's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as RIO (42). This means that BHP’s stock grew similarly to RIO’s over the last 12 months.
| BHP | RIO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 8 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BHP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while RIO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BHP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- RIO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BHP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RIO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BHP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- RIO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BHP (@Other Metals/Minerals) experienced а +5.47% price change this week, while RIO (@Other Metals/Minerals) price change was -1.06% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Metals/Minerals industry was +33.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.29%, and the average quarterly price growth was -25.13%.
Reported Earning Dates
BHP is expected to report earnings on Nov 17, 2026.
RIO is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Metals/Minerals (+33.41% weekly)The category includes companies that explore for, mine and extract metals, such as copper, diamonds, nickel, cobalt ore, lead, zinc and uranium. BHP, Rio Tinto and Southern Copper Corporation are major players in this space.
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RIO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RIO has been closely correlated with BHP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RIO jumps, then BHP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RIO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIO | 100% | -3.12% | ||
| BHP - RIO | 89% Closely correlated | -0.49% | ||
| VALE - RIO | 77% Closely correlated | -2.53% | ||
| WRN - RIO | 65% Loosely correlated | -4.49% | ||
| USAS - RIO | 62% Loosely correlated | -4.06% | ||
| SKE - RIO | 59% Loosely correlated | -4.52% | ||
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