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BTI vs PM
BTI vs PM Stock Comparison: Earnings Recap Full-Year 2025 Results
Key Takeaways
- BTI reported FY 2025 revenue of £25.61B (down 1% reported, up 2.1% constant currency), adjusted PFO up 2.3% constant currency as adjusted for Canada, and adjusted diluted EPS up 3.4% constant currency.
- PM delivered FY 2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $7.54 (up 14.8% reported, 14.2% currency-neutral), with total net revenue over $40B, 41.5% from smoke-free products.
- BTI's new categories revenue grew 7% constant currency, led by 48% in modern oral (VELO); U.S. revenue up 5.5%; 2026 guidance at lower end of mid-term targets (3-5% revenue, 5-8% adj EPS growth).
- PM's smoke-free volumes rose 12.8%, organic net revenue up 6.5%; Q4 revenue $10.4B (up 6.8%), adj EPS $1.70; 2026 adj EPS guidance $8.38-$8.53 (up 11.1-13.1%).
- Both raised dividends (BTI +2% to 245.04p; PM $1.47/share); BTI announced £1.3B 2026 buyback; PM targets leverage ~2.0x by 2026 end.
- BTI shares ~$60.61 (PE 12.73, yield 5.30%); PM ~$188.95 (PE 26.03, yield 3.11%), reflecting PM's premium valuation on faster growth.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
British American Tobacco's (BTI) full-year 2025 earnings, released February 12, 2026, highlight resilient combustibles and accelerating new categories amid U.S. recovery and Canada litigation resolution. Comparing to Philip Morris International (PM), which reported Q4/full-year results on February 6, underscores competitive dynamics in tobacco's shift to smoke-free alternatives. Both face regulatory pressures but prioritize reduced-risk products like pouches (VELO, ZYN) and heated tobacco. Investors eye growth sustainability, cash returns, and valuation—BTI offers higher yield with modest growth, while PM commands premium multiples on superior EPS expansion—in a sector yielding defensive stability amid economic uncertainty.
BTI Earnings Focus
British American Tobacco reported full-year 2025 results for the period ended December 31, 2025. Revenue totaled £25.61 billion, down 1% reported but up 2.1% at constant currency, driven by U.S. (+5.5%) and AME (+3.3%), offset by APMEA challenges. New categories revenue rose 7.0% constant currency to £3.67 billion, with modern oral up 48%; smokeless now 18.2% of total revenue.
Adjusted profit from operations (APFO) reached £11.57 billion, up 2.3% constant currency as adjusted for Canada. Reported diluted EPS surged 157% to 349.1p; adjusted diluted EPS was 352.1p, up 3.4% constant currency as adjusted. Shares added 4.7 million smokeless consumers to 34.1 million.
Guidance reaffirms mid-term algorithm (+3-5% revenue, +4-6% APFO, +5-8% adj diluted EPS at constant rates), with 2026 at lower end, H2-weighted. Dividend up 2% to 245.04p; £1.3 billion buyback planned. Leverage targets 2.0-2.5x by year-end. Stock traded flat to slightly lower post-release, around $60.60.
PM Context and Earnings Relevance
Philip Morris International reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 6, 2026. Full-year net revenue exceeded $40 billion, with smoke-free at 41.5% (~$17 billion). Q4 revenue hit $10.4 billion, up 6.8% reported (3.7% organic), fueled by combustibles pricing (+7.6%) and smoke-free volume/mix. Adjusted diluted EPS rose 9.7% to $1.70, meeting estimates.
Full-year adjusted diluted EPS reached $7.54, up 14.8% reported (14.2% currency-neutral), with organic net revenue +6.5% and operating income +10.6%. Smoke-free volumes grew 12.8%.
2026 guidance: organic net revenue +5-7%, operating income +7-9%, currency-neutral adjusted EPS +7.5-9.5% ($8.38-$8.53 reported). Q1 adjusted EPS $1.80-$1.85; operating cash flow ~$13.5 billion; leverage ~2.0x. Dividend $1.47/share; no buybacks. Shares dipped modestly post-earnings but up YTD 17.8%.
AI Trading Bot Perspective
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Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
BTI's FY 2025 topped guidance with 2.1% constant-currency revenue growth and 3.4% adjusted EPS expansion (Canada-adjusted), bolstered by VELO's U.S. surge (modern oral +48%) and combustibles resilience. PM outperformed on EPS (+14.8%), driven by smoke-free (volumes +12.8%, 41.5% revenue share) and pricing, though Q4 organic revenue growth (3.7%) trailed BTI's full-year.
Growth drivers: PM leads in smoke-free scale (ZYN, IQOS); BTI accelerates via VELO and multi-category in AME. Risks: Regulatory/illicit trade (both vapor); BTI's APMEA weakness, Canada payments; PM's combustible decline (~3% forecast). Industry exposure mirrors global tobacco transition. Sentiment favors PM's momentum (YTD +17.8% vs. BTI +7.1%), but BTI's cheaper valuation (PE 12.7 vs. 26.0) and higher yield (5.3% vs. 3.1%) appeal for value/dividend focus. Trade-offs: PM for growth, BTI for stability/cash returns.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors PM based on superior earnings quality, faster smoke-free growth, and stronger EPS trajectory (14.8% vs. BTI's 3.4%), alongside robust 2026 guidance. BTI offers stability via higher yield and buybacks, but PM's positioning in the tobacco transition suggests higher probability of outperformance amid observable trends in reduced-risk products.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BTI is a Hold and PM is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BTI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BTI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BTI’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BTI’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BTI (@Tobacco) experienced а -2.19% price change this week, while PM (@Tobacco) price change was +1.26% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -0.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.51%.
Reported Earning Dates
BTI is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Tobacco (-0.80% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| BTI | PM | BTI / PM | |
| Capitalization | 126B | 249B | 51% |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 17.5B | 81% |
| Gain YTD | 3.049 | 0.308 | 991% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.30 | 21.96 | 56% |
| Revenue | 25.6B | 40.6B | 63% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | N/A | 48.8B | - |
BTI | PM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 12 Undervalued | 23 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 78 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BTI's Valuation (12) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (23). This means that BTI’s stock grew similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
BTI's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (18). This means that BTI’s stock grew similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for BTI (99). This means that PM’s stock grew significantly faster than BTI’s over the last 12 months.
BTI's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (58). This means that BTI’s stock grew similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
PM's P/E Growth Rating (78) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as BTI (94). This means that PM’s stock grew similarly to BTI’s over the last 12 months.
| BTI | PM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 42% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 39% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 61% | 7 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 27 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 38% |
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BTI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BTI has been loosely correlated with MO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BTI jumps, then MO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BTI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTI | 100% | -2.01% | ||
| MO - BTI | 52% Loosely correlated | -1.78% | ||
| IMBBY - BTI | 46% Loosely correlated | -4.62% | ||
| PM - BTI | 43% Loosely correlated | -2.02% | ||
| BTAFF - BTI | 38% Loosely correlated | -2.59% | ||
| UVV - BTI | 30% Poorly correlated | -1.57% | ||
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