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CAT vs OSK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) vs. Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Caterpillar is the larger, higher-momentum name, while Oshkosh is a smaller, more diversified specialty-vehicle maker navigating near-term execution challenges.
- Caterpillar's sales and record backlog are being driven by power-generation demand tied to data centers, whereas Oshkosh's growth leans on defense, fire apparatus, and postal-vehicle programs.
- Caterpillar has outperformed over the past year, but both stocks pulled back in recent weeks amid a broader industrial and AI-linked sell-off.
- Oshkosh trades at a notably lower earnings multiple and higher dividend yield than Caterpillar, reflecting different risk and growth profiles.
- Oshkosh's margins have compressed on unfavorable mix and manufacturing overhead, while Caterpillar faces tariff-related cost pressure despite strong volumes.
- For more color on each name, explore CAT Major News and CAT Today's Price Move, plus OSK Major News and OSK Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, visit the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Investors evaluating industrial machinery and specialty vehicles often weigh scale and momentum against value and diversification. CAT (Caterpillar Inc.) and OSK (Oshkosh Corporation) sit in adjacent corners of the industrial landscape, but their growth engines and market positioning differ meaningfully. This stock comparison is relevant for traders tracking relative performance and for longer-term investors assessing how a dominant heavy-equipment leader contrasts with a more specialized, defense-and-vocational-focused manufacturer. Both companies have reported mixed recent results and experienced volatility, making a side-by-side review of momentum, valuation, and catalysts a useful framework for understanding current market positioning.
CAT Overview and Recent Performance
Caterpillar Inc. is a global leader in construction and mining equipment, energy and transportation, and power systems. In recent quarters, the company's results have been propelled by unusually strong demand in its Power & Energy segment, where power-generation sales to users surged roughly 72% year over year, driven by large generator sets and turbines used in data-center applications. Caterpillar reported second-quarter 2026 revenues of about $20.5 billion, up 24% year over year, and ended the quarter with a record backlog of roughly $72 billion, up 92% from the prior year.
Despite the strong fundamentals, CAT shares have been volatile in recent market activity. The stock gained sharply earlier in the year before pulling back more than 20% from its peak between mid-summer and late October, as an AI-linked sell-off spread into industrial names. Tariff-related costs and a premium forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple have also weighed on sentiment, even as analysts broadly retain a "Buy" consensus rating.
OSK Overview and Recent Performance
Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures specialty vehicles across four segments: Access (aerial work platforms and telehandlers), Vocational (fire apparatus and refuse trucks), Defense, and Transport, which includes the Next Generation Delivery Vehicle (NGDV) program for the U.S. Postal Service. This diversification gives OSK exposure to construction, municipal spending, defense contracts, and logistics.
Recent results have been uneven. First-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell more than 55% year over year, missing estimates, as unfavorable product mix, higher manufacturing overhead, and price-cost pressures compressed margins. Second-quarter results improved on the top line, with revenue rising 6.7% to $2.92 billion, but adjusted EPS still declined about 16% year over year. The company ended the period with a roughly $14.75 billion backlog and cut its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to about $11, citing slower-than-expected fire-truck production. The stock has underperformed in recent weeks, trading near the lower end of its 52-week range.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
At a fundamental level, these companies operate at different scales. Caterpillar generates quarterly revenue of roughly $20 billion against Oshkosh's roughly $2.9 billion, and Caterpillar carries a market capitalization many times larger. Caterpillar's growth is increasingly concentrated in power generation tied to data-center and electrification trends, while Oshkosh's growth depends on a broader mix of municipal, defense, and postal-vehicle programs.
Valuation and income profiles diverge sharply. Caterpillar trades at a forward P/E ratio in the high-20s, reflecting its premium growth narrative, whereas Oshkosh trades at a much lower multiple and offers a higher dividend yield. Momentum also differs: Caterpillar has delivered stronger one-year returns, but both stocks have fallen recently, suggesting shared sensitivity to industrial demand and interest-rate expectations. On risk, Caterpillar faces tariff cost exposure and a rich valuation, while Oshkosh contends with execution risk in its fire-truck ramp and margin pressure across segments.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor Caterpillar for trend consistency and relative positioning, given its stronger revenue growth, record backlog, and a clearer catalyst in data-center power demand. However, this advantage is tempered by Caterpillar's premium valuation and recent pullback, which reduce the margin of safety. Oshkosh's lower multiple and improving free cash flow present a more value-oriented profile, but its compressed margins and execution uncertainties currently weaken the trend picture. In probabilistic terms, the AI framework leans toward Caterpillar on momentum and growth durability, while acknowledging that Oshkosh may warrant closer watch as its production ramp and margin recovery unfold.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CAT is a Hold and OSK is a StrongBuy.
CAT in +8.17% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on November 09, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where CAT advanced for three days, in 277 of 378 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CAT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
CAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CAT as a result. In 37 of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CAT turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 55%.
CAT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CAT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The 50-day moving average for CAT moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator for CAT entered a downward trend on November 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CAT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CAT's P/B Ratio (13.240) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.277). P/E Ratio (23.934) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.106). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.435) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. CAT's P/S Ratio (4.892) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.169).
OSK's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for OSK turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where OSK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on OSK as a result. In 57 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
OSK moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for OSK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +7.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OSK advanced for three days, in 212 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for OSK moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 26 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 60%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 43 of 67 cases where OSK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The 50-day moving average for OSK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OSK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
OSK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for OSK entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. OSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.832) is normal, around the industry mean (2.277). P/E Ratio (15.286) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.106). OSK's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.298) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.869) is also within normal values, averaging (1.169).
CAT | OSK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 63 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
OSK's Valuation (87) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (88). This means that OSK’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
OSK's Profit vs Risk Rating (50) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (50). This means that OSK’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's SMR Rating (19) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OSK (63). This means that CAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than OSK’s over the last 12 months.
OSK's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (65). This means that OSK’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
OSK's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CAT (70). This means that OSK’s stock grew somewhat faster than CAT’s over the last 12 months.
| CAT | OSK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 9 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 57% | 5 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CAT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while OSK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CAT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- OSK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CAT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OSK’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CAT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 7 bearish.
- OSK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CAT (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а -2.40% price change this week, while OSK (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was -3.90% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -2.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.28%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
CAT is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
OSK is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-2.41% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
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CAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CAT has been loosely correlated with TEX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CAT jumps, then TEX could also see price increases.
OSK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OSK has been closely correlated with TEX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OSK jumps, then TEX could also see price increases.