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CME vs ICE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CME Group (CME) vs. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CME is a derivatives-focused exchange operator that has shown steadier relative performance, while ICE has underperformed its peer over the past year despite record quarterly results.
- CME Group leans heavily on interest-rate and equity-index futures, whereas Intercontinental Exchange is more diversified across energy, fixed income and data, and mortgage technology.
- ICE carries meaningfully more debt than CME, largely reflecting its acquisition-driven growth strategy, including its planned MarketAxess transaction.
- Both companies pay growing dividends and repurchase shares, supporting capital-return appeal for income-oriented investors.
- The comparison hinges on a trade-off between CME's concentrated, high-margin derivatives franchise and ICE's broader but more acquisition-dependent business mix.
Introduction
CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are two of the world's most important financial-market infrastructure companies, yet they pursue notably different strategies. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a pure-play derivatives exchange against a more diversified operator spanning exchanges, data services, and mortgage technology. Traders focused on relative performance and market positioning may find the contrast instructive, particularly in a period when rising volatility has lifted trading volumes across both platforms but rewarded the two stocks unevenly. The analysis below reviews recent results, business drivers, and sentiment to clarify how CME and ICE compare today.
CME Overview and Recent Performance
CME Group operates the world's leading derivatives marketplace, with dominant franchises in interest-rate, equity-index, energy, agricultural, and metals futures and options. Its business is concentrated in clearing and transaction fees, complemented by a fast-growing market data and information services segment. Recent market activity has favored the franchise: CME reported record first-quarter 2026 revenue of roughly $1.9 billion, up about 14% year over year, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbed roughly 20%. In the first half of 2026, average daily volume (ADV) rose about 10%, and market data revenues reached a record in the second quarter.
Sentiment has been supported by ongoing product innovation, including new leveraged loan futures, single-stock futures, and compute futures, along with extended trading hours in gold and cryptocurrency markets. After a strong multi-month rally, shares have cooled modestly in recent weeks, leaving the stock near the upper end of its 52-week range. CME's balance sheet remains conservative, with cash well in excess of long-term debt, underpinning consistent dividends and buybacks.
ICE Overview and Recent Performance
Intercontinental Exchange is a global financial-market infrastructure company that operates exchanges, clearing networks, and data services, alongside a sizable mortgage technology business. Unlike CME, ICE's revenue is spread across three segments: exchanges (led by energy and financials), fixed income and data services, and mortgage technology. ICE has also posted record results, including first-quarter 2026 revenue less transaction-based expenses of roughly $2.98 billion, up about 20% year over year, with adjusted EPS up approximately 37%.
Despite strong fundamentals, ICE's stock has lagged over the past year and has been more volatile in recent weeks, with some observers attributing the gap to concerns about leverage and integration risk tied to its acquisition strategy, including the planned MarketAxess deal. ICE is pursuing new growth avenues such as a private credit reference data service and GPU compute futures, while expanding share repurchases. Its dividend has grown for 14 consecutive years, but a larger debt load and a more complex, acquisition-heavy structure differentiate its risk profile from CME's.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between CME and ICE is concentration versus diversification. CME is a high-margin derivatives pure play, with interest rates as its largest product line and a recurring, fast-growing data franchise layered on top. ICE, by contrast, blends energy and financials exchanges with fixed income data and a mortgage technology platform, giving it broader exposure to secular digitization trends but also to credit and housing cycles.
Risk profiles differ accordingly. CME carries relatively modest long-term debt and a capital-light model, while ICE's balance sheet reflects its acquisitions, including Black Knight and the planned MarketAxess transaction, which add integration and leverage considerations. On growth, both are innovating in compute futures and crypto-adjacent products, but CME's catalysts are more organically tied to its existing derivatives ecosystem, whereas ICE's include heavier M&A (mergers and acquisitions) execution. Market sentiment has favored CME in the recent period, as its steadier price action and lower leverage contrast with ICE's sharper recent drawdowns.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward CME in the current environment. Its stronger relative performance, more consistent uptrend, lower leverage, and recurring data-revenue growth suggest more favorable trend consistency and stability. ICE offers broader diversification and a more depressed valuation in some measures, which could appeal to a contrarian or longer-horizon signal, but its heavier debt and integration risk introduce additional uncertainty. Accordingly, the AI verdict would tilt probabilistically toward CME for momentum and stability, while acknowledging ICE as a higher-conviction value candidate if its acquisition integration proceeds smoothly.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CME is a Hold and ICE is a Buy.
CME | ICE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 57 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 95 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 47 | 61 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 80 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 12 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ICE's Valuation (84) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CME (95). This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Profit vs Risk Rating (47) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (61). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's SMR Rating (54) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (59). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CME (56). This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CME's P/E Growth Rating (57) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (80). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
| CME | ICE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 38% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 51% | 9 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 43% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CME’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while ICE’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CME’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ICE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CME’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ICE’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CME’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- ICE’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CME (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а -1.42% price change this week, while ICE (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was -3.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was -2.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.22%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.56%.
Reported Earning Dates
CME is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
ICE is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (-2.83% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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CME and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CME has been loosely correlated with ICE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 48% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CME jumps, then ICE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CME | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME | 100% | +1.19% | ||
| ICE - CME | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.37% | ||
| TW - CME | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.44% | ||
| MKTX - CME | 35% Loosely correlated | +0.18% | ||
| NDAQ - CME | 35% Loosely correlated | -0.37% | ||
| MSCI - CME | 24% Poorly correlated | +1.25% | ||
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ICE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ICE has been loosely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ICE jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ICE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | 100% | -0.37% | ||
| SPGI - ICE | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.60% | ||
| TW - ICE | 52% Loosely correlated | +2.44% | ||
| MCO - ICE | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.49% | ||
| TRU - ICE | 50% Loosely correlated | +1.73% | ||
| MSCI - ICE | 48% Loosely correlated | +1.25% | ||
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