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CME vs ICE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CME Group (CME) vs. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both companies are exchange and data operators, but CME is concentrated in derivatives trading and clearing, while ICE spans exchanges, fixed income and data, and mortgage technology.
- CME Group posted record average daily volume of 29.4 million contracts in its most recent quarter, with revenue up 13% year over year, reinforcing the strength of its core derivatives franchise.
- Intercontinental Exchange has delivered double-digit volume growth across energy and financials, while diversifying through mortgage technology and its pending MarketAxess transaction.
- Relative performance has diverged recently: CME has trended higher on record trading activity, while ICE has pulled back from its 52-week high despite strong operating results.
- Market positioning differs materially — CME is a high-margin, low-beta derivatives pure play, whereas ICE carries more leverage and a broader, more diversified revenue mix.
- For more detail, explore CME Major News and CME Today's Price Move, as well as ICE Major News and ICE Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI is applying these signals in real time, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are two of the largest financial market infrastructure companies in the world, yet they occupy different positions within the exchange landscape. CME is the dominant global venue for derivatives futures and options, while ICE operates the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) alongside energy, fixed income, data, and mortgage technology businesses. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a concentrated, high-margin derivatives franchise against a more diversified exchange and data platform, as well as for traders monitoring relative performance and market positioning in the current environment.
CME Overview and Recent Performance
CME Group is the world's leading derivatives marketplace, operating exchanges for interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural, and metals products. In its most recent quarterly report, CME delivered revenue growth of roughly 13% year over year and a record average daily volume (ADV) of about 29.4 million contracts, reflecting elevated demand for risk management across rates and equity markets. The company's pre-tax margins remain exceptionally high for an exchange operator, and its low beta and dependable dividend underpin its reputation as a defensive holding within financials. In recent weeks, the stock has trended higher after the strong results before giving back a portion of those gains, a pattern consistent with profit-taking following a rapid run-up toward its 52-week high. Sentiment has been supported by sustained trading activity, though ongoing competitive questions around new derivatives venues have added a modest layer of caution.
ICE Overview and Recent Performance
Intercontinental Exchange operates a broader franchise spanning the NYSE, global energy and financial derivatives exchanges, fixed income data and execution, and mortgage technology through its MSP loan servicing platform. Recent quarters have shown robust momentum, including transaction revenue growth of roughly 34% year over year and particularly strong energy activity, where net revenues rose about 46%. ICE has also been active on the product front in recent months, launching new freight futures, re-entering the London gold market, and advancing tokenized securities initiatives. Despite these positive operating metrics, the shares have pulled back from their 52-week high and have underperformed some peers on a year-to-date basis, as investors weigh integration of the pending MarketAxess transaction, higher technology and data center spending, and elevated leverage relative to CME. This divergence between strong fundamentals and softer near-term price action has left ICE trading at a lower earnings multiple than CME.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a curated Trending AI Robots section that highlights a select group of automated trading strategies from a much larger library. Tickeron's platform features hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively monitor thousands of different tickers, but only the strategies judged most suitable for current market conditions earn a place in this featured list. Each bot operates with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and set of tickers, so the section serves as a starting point for traders seeking systematic approaches rather than a one-size-fits-all recommendation. Exploring the Trending AI Robots page can help you see how data-driven signals are being applied across the market in real time.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is business model concentration versus diversification. CME generates the large majority of its revenue from derivatives trading and clearing, which produces exceptional margins but ties its growth closely to market volatility and trading volumes. ICE, by comparison, blends transaction-driven exchange revenue with more recurring sources such as fixed income data, listings, and mortgage technology, offering a steadier baseline but a lower overall operating margin. On growth drivers, CME benefits from demand for interest rate and equity hedging, while ICE's catalysts include energy market restructuring, fixed income data expansion, and the integration of MarketAxess. Risk profiles also differ: CME carries modest debt and a very low beta, whereas ICE operates with higher leverage and greater exposure to the mortgage cycle. In terms of recent momentum, CME has shown stronger relative performance near its highs, while ICE has consolidated lower despite solid results — a trade-off between proven near-term strength and a comparatively cheaper valuation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative positioning, and catalyst strength, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward CME Group in the current environment. CME's record trading volumes, high and stable margins, and low-beta profile suggest a more consistent near-term trend, and the stock has held closer to its highs than ICE. ICE's diversified model and lower valuation present a credible long-term case, but softer near-term price momentum, higher leverage, and integration risk around MarketAxess introduce greater uncertainty. As a result, the AI would probably assign CME a higher probability of near-term relative outperformance, while still recognizing ICE's appeal for investors with a longer time horizon.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CME is a StrongBuy and ICE is a Buy.
CME in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CME crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CME as a result. In 56 of 107 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CME just turned positive on November 11, 2026. Looking at past instances where CME's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
CME moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.73% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CME advanced for three days, in 172 of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 137 of 261 cases where CME Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 52%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CME declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 42%.
CME broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CME’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.147) is normal, around the industry mean (4.143). P/E Ratio (25.814) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.659). CME's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.578) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. CME's P/S Ratio (14.535) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.166).
ICE in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
ICE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 18 of 30 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ICE as a result. In 34 of 71 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ICE just turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where ICE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 21 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
The 10-day moving average for ICE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 5 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 42%.
Following a +3.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ICE advanced for three days, in 185 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 158 of 333 cases where ICE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 47%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ICE moved out of overbought territory on November 12, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 14 of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 35%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ICE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
ICE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ICE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.273) is normal, around the industry mean (4.143). P/E Ratio (24.229) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.659). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.071) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.553) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
CME | ICE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 39 | 37 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 47 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 17 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 61 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ICE's Valuation (87) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CME (94). This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (47). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's SMR Rating (54) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (59). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's Price Growth Rating (17) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CME (23). This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CME's P/E Growth Rating (50) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (61). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
| CME | ICE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 35% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 42% | 8 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 47% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CME’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while ICE’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CME’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ICE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CME’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ICE’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CME’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ICE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CME (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +2.69% price change this week, while ICE (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +2.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was -0.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.30%.
Reported Earning Dates
CME is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
ICE is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (-0.60% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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CME and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CME has been loosely correlated with ICE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CME jumps, then ICE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CME | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME | 100% | -0.12% | ||
| ICE - CME | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.51% | ||
| TW - CME | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.80% | ||
| NDAQ - CME | 36% Loosely correlated | -0.94% | ||
| MKTX - CME | 35% Loosely correlated | -0.09% | ||
| MSCI - CME | 30% Poorly correlated | -1.51% | ||
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ICE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ICE has been loosely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ICE jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ICE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | 100% | -1.51% | ||
| SPGI - ICE | 59% Loosely correlated | -1.39% | ||
| TRU - ICE | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.21% | ||
| MSCI - ICE | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.51% | ||
| TW - ICE | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.80% | ||
| MCO - ICE | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.63% | ||
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