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CME vs ICE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CME Group (CME) vs. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CME Group (CME) is the world's largest derivatives marketplace, while Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) operates a more diversified global market-infrastructure and data business that includes the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
- Both companies benefited from elevated trading volumes in recent quarters, though their revenue mixes and growth drivers differ meaningfully.
- CME has been navigating a leadership transition and investor debate over perpetual futures, which has weighed on sentiment despite record quarterly volumes.
- ICE has delivered accelerating revenue growth across exchanges, fixed income and data, and mortgage technology, with energy trading a standout.
- Analyst views on both names are mixed, with CME skewing toward a "Hold" consensus and ICE drawing a wider spread of bullish and cautious calls.
- The two stocks offer a contrast in valuation, dividend yield, and business-model diversification that shapes their relative market positioning.
Introduction
Exchange and market-infrastructure operators often move together, yet CME and ICE present investors with two distinct profiles. CME Group is a pure-play derivatives powerhouse centered on futures and options, while Intercontinental Exchange pairs exchanges with recurring data, technology, and mortgage-software businesses. For traders and investors weighing exposure to market structure, this stock comparison highlights how business-model diversification, growth drivers, and recent momentum can diverge even between close industry peers. Understanding these contrasts helps frame which name may be better positioned under current market conditions.
CME Overview and Recent Performance
CME Group operates the world's largest futures and options exchange, spanning interest rates, equities, energy, agriculture, metals, and foreign exchange. In recent quarters, the company reported record activity, including its highest-ever quarterly average daily volume (ADV) of 36.2 million contracts, up 22% year over year, alongside record revenue and an adjusted operating margin that reached roughly 73%. A strong earnings beat in its latest quarter was driven by resilient hedging demand and rising equity-index and agricultural volumes, even as some rate and energy activity softened.
Sentiment has nonetheless been mixed. Shares pulled back meaningfully from earlier highs in recent months, in part reflecting investor debate over perpetual futures and concerns about a premium valuation. The company is also preparing for a leadership transition, with a long-serving chief executive set to step down and a successor expected to take over in early 2026. Product innovation remains active, including plans around artificial-intelligence compute capacity futures and expanded cryptocurrency offerings. The analyst consensus leans toward "Hold," with price targets spanning a notably wide range, reflecting genuine disagreement over the stock's risk-reward balance.
ICE Overview and Recent Performance
Intercontinental Exchange is a diversified market-infrastructure and technology company. It operates global exchanges, including the New York Stock Exchange, and runs substantial fixed income and data services, credit-default-swap (CDS) clearing, and mortgage technology businesses. In its most recent quarter, ICE reported total revenues, less transaction-based expenses, up about 20% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share rising sharply. Energy trading was a standout, with exchange energy revenue climbing roughly 46%, supported by a structural repricing across energy markets rather than one-off shocks.
Recent market activity has shown strong operating momentum, including double-digit year-over-year growth in average daily volume and record open interest in some product lines, plus a steady stream of new offerings across freight, precious metals, private credit data, and tokenized-asset initiatives. At the same time, ICE's share price has cooled from its peak in recent weeks, and analyst sentiment is divided: some firms have raised price targets and maintained bullish ratings, while others have downgraded the stock or initiated coverage with a cautious stance. This spread reflects both confidence in the diversified revenue base and concern about elevated spending on data centers and technology.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a large library of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, including CME and ICE. Each bot runs its own strategy, timeframe, trading style, performance record, and target list of securities. Rather than surfacing the full catalog, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates only the bots best suited to current market conditions. This curated view lets investors compare bots by statistics such as historical win rate, trade frequency, and profitability, helping them quickly identify approaches aligned with today's environment. Browsing the selection can provide a useful starting point for those exploring systematic, AI-driven strategies across exchange operators and beyond.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Business model is the clearest differentiator. CME is a focused derivatives exchange with exceptionally high margins, while ICE is a broader market-infrastructure platform whose recurring data, fixed income, and mortgage technology revenues reduce its dependence on any single trading category. This diversification gives ICE more secular growth levers but also exposes it to spending on data centers and integration of acquisitions.
On growth drivers, CME's recent momentum has come from record volumes across asset classes and new product launches, whereas ICE has benefited disproportionately from energy and interest-rate volatility plus steady recurring data growth. Valuation and income also differ: CME trades at a premium price-to-earnings ratio and offers a higher dividend yield, while ICE carries a lower yield but is viewed by some analysts as relatively undervalued. Risk profiles contrast as well—CME faces competitive and regulatory questions around perpetual futures and event contracts, while ICE's main sensitivities include capital-expenditure intensity and the pace of the mortgage-technology recovery.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ICE in the current environment, though the edge is probabilistic rather than decisive. ICE's more diversified revenue base, stronger recent revenue acceleration, and multiple independent growth catalysts—energy, fixed income data, and mortgage technology—suggest broader trend support and stability. CME's record volumes and dominant derivatives franchise remain compelling, but a leadership transition, ongoing perpetual-futures debate, and a mixed analyst consensus introduce greater near-term uncertainty. A systematic AI approach would weigh these relative signals—trend consistency, stability, and catalysts—leaning toward ICE while acknowledging that both companies retain durable, high-quality franchises.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CME is a Hold and ICE is a Buy.
CME in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CME crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CME as a result. In 57 of 106 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CME just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where CME's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
CME moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CME advanced for three days, in 170 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CME declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
CME broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CME entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CME’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.149) is normal, around the industry mean (4.019). P/E Ratio (25.821) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.786). CME's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.578) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. CME's P/S Ratio (14.535) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.166).
ICE in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ICE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ICE as a result. In 33 of 70 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ICE just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where ICE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 21 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
ICE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.16% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ICE advanced for three days, in 183 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ICE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
ICE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ICE entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ICE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.996) is normal, around the industry mean (4.019). P/E Ratio (22.179) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.786). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.071) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.553) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
CME | ICE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 53 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 73 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ICE's Valuation (85) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CME (97). This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (53). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's SMR Rating (54) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (59). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Price Growth Rating (23) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (34). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's P/E Growth Rating (41) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (73). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
| CME | ICE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 39% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 7 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 41% | 9 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 38% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 34% | 1 day ago 56% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CME’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ICE’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CME’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ICE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CME’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ICE’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CME’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ICE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CME (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +3.57% price change this week, while ICE (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +1.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +2.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
CME is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
ICE is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+2.74% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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CME and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CME has been loosely correlated with ICE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CME jumps, then ICE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CME | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME | 100% | +3.45% | ||
| ICE - CME | 49% Loosely correlated | +3.90% | ||
| TW - CME | 45% Loosely correlated | +1.57% | ||
| NDAQ - CME | 36% Loosely correlated | +7.47% | ||
| MKTX - CME | 35% Loosely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| MSCI - CME | 26% Poorly correlated | +2.61% | ||
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ICE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ICE has been loosely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ICE jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ICE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | 100% | +3.90% | ||
| SPGI - ICE | 58% Loosely correlated | +2.24% | ||
| TW - ICE | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.57% | ||
| MCO - ICE | 51% Loosely correlated | +2.08% | ||
| TRU - ICE | 51% Loosely correlated | +5.74% | ||
| MSCI - ICE | 48% Loosely correlated | +2.61% | ||
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