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CME vs ICE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CME Group (CME) vs. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CME has delivered stronger year-to-date performance at +7.8% compared to ICE's +0.5%, amid robust trading volumes.
- Both companies reported record average daily volume (ADV) in Q1 2026, with CME up 22% overall and ICE up 45% in total ADV.
- CME exhibits lower volatility with a beta of 0.30 versus ICE's 1.04, appealing to stability-focused investors.
- Analyst price targets indicate potential upside of about 9% for CME (average $313) and 24% for ICE (average $199).
- Recent market activity shows CME pulling back over the past 30 days by around 6%, while ICE gained modestly.
Introduction
CME Group (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) dominate the global exchange landscape, operating key platforms for derivatives, equities, and data services. This stock comparison analyzes their relative performance, business drivers, and market positioning in the current environment of heightened volatility and volume growth. Traders seeking exposure to financial infrastructure and investors eyeing stable dividend payers will find value in understanding how these peers stack up amid recent record trading activity and upcoming earnings reports. Both benefit from cyclical upswings in commodities and interest rates, but distinct strategies shape their trajectories.
CME Overview and Recent Performance
CME Group operates the world's leading derivatives marketplace, facilitating futures and options trading across interest rates, equities, foreign exchange, and commodities. In recent market activity, CME shares have experienced a pullback, declining around 6% over the past 30 days amid broader caution ahead of Q1 earnings. Despite this, year-to-date gains stand at +7.8%, supported by record Q1 ADV of 36.2 million contracts, up 22% year-over-year, with international volumes hitting 11.4 million contracts, a 30% surge. Key influences include regulatory approvals for cross-margining enhancements, boosting capital efficiency, and sustained demand for interest rate products. Trading at a trailing P/E of 25.8 with a low beta of 0.30, sentiment remains positive with analysts forecasting revenue growth.
ICE Overview and Recent Performance
Intercontinental Exchange owns the New York Stock Exchange and provides data services, mortgage technology, and clearing across multiple asset classes. ICE shares have shown resilience in recent weeks, with modest monthly gains around 3%, though year-to-date performance lags at +0.5%. Driving factors include record March ADV across commodities, energy, oil, and interest rates, with total ADV up 45% year-over-year and energy up 32%. A $600 million investment in prediction market platform Polymarket underscores expansion into innovative data analytics, alongside an 8% dividend hike. With a trailing P/E of 27.8 and beta of 1.04, performance reflects balanced growth in fixed income and equities clearing.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CME Group focuses on derivatives with deep liquidity in futures, while ICE offers broader exposure through equities ownership, mortgage tech (M&T, mergers and acquisitions), and data analytics. Growth drivers diverge: CME leverages international expansion and interest rate hedging demand, whereas ICE capitalizes on energy commodities and fintech integrations like Polymarket. Recent momentum favors CME's YTD edge, but ICE shows short-term resilience. Risk profiles contrast sharply—CME's debt-to-equity at 13% and low beta versus ICE's 70% leverage and higher volatility—highlighting trade-offs in stability versus growth potential. Sector exposure tilts CME toward rates and FX, ICE toward equities and fixed income. Market sentiment is bullish for both, buoyed by volume surges, though CME's superior return on equity (14.8%) edges out ICE's 11.9%.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward CME based on consistent trend strength, lower risk metrics, and robust Q1 volume growth positioning it favorably ahead of earnings. While ICE offers higher analyst upside and diversification, CME's stability and outperformance provide a probabilistic edge in the prevailing volatility environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CME is a StrongBuy and ICE is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CME’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileICE’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CME’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ICE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CME’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ICE’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CME’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- ICE’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CME (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +6.12% price change this week, while ICE (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +1.13% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +3.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.76%.
Reported Earning Dates
CME is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
ICE is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+3.25% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
| CME | ICE | CME / ICE | |
| Capitalization | 96.1B | 79.2B | 121% |
| EBITDA | 6.1B | 7.53B | 81% |
| Gain YTD | -1.658 | -12.895 | 13% |
| P/E Ratio | 22.70 | 20.39 | 111% |
| Revenue | 6.76B | 13.1B | 52% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 3.42B | 21B | 16% |
CME | ICE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 51 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 50 Fair valued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 60 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 55 | 62 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 91 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CME's Valuation (50) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (64). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Profit vs Risk Rating (41) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (60). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's SMR Rating (55) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (62). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (63). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's P/E Growth Rating (69) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (91). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
| CME | ICE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 46% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 46% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 40% | 4 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 48% | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 41% | 5 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 46% | 4 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 60% |
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