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CME vs ICE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CME Group (CME) vs. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CME and ICE operate in the financial data and stock exchanges sector, providing exchange, clearing, and data services with high operating margins and recurring revenue models.
- CME has demonstrated greater stock price stability with a low beta of 0.28, while ICE reported stronger year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 20% in its most recent quarter.
- Recent market activity shows CME facing post-earnings pressure after a Q1 revenue miss despite 14.5% year-over-year growth, with its next earnings release scheduled for July 22, 2026.
- ICE highlighted record open interest across multiple markets in June 2026, including notable gains in natural gas and Asia gas contracts, though its stock has experienced downward pressure amid analyst target adjustments.
- Year-to-date through mid-July 2026, ICE outperformed with a 13.18% return compared to CME’s 7.64%, both relative to the S&P 500’s 8.94%.
- Valuation metrics indicate CME trades at a trailing P/E of approximately 20.9 with a dividend yield near 2.1%, while ICE maintains a focus on share repurchases and capital returns.
Introduction
CME Group Inc. (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) are leading operators of global derivatives and securities exchanges. This comparison examines their relative performance, business fundamentals, and recent market positioning to assist institutional investors, active traders, and portfolio managers evaluating exposure within the financial exchanges and data sector. The analysis draws on observable trading patterns, earnings trends, and sector dynamics observed over recent weeks to highlight contrasts in stability, growth drivers, and risk profiles.
CME Overview and Recent Performance
CME Group operates major futures and options markets for interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, and commodities, supplemented by clearing and data services. In recent market activity, the stock has traded with notable stability, reflected in its low five-year beta of 0.28. Following first-quarter results that showed 14.5% year-over-year revenue growth but missed analyst estimates, the shares experienced downward pressure of approximately 13.6% in the subsequent period. Market sentiment has been influenced by anticipation of the second-quarter earnings release scheduled for July 22, 2026, with analysts maintaining a generally constructive but cautious stance amid modest expected growth.
ICE Overview and Recent Performance
Intercontinental Exchange operates securities exchanges including the New York Stock Exchange, along with derivatives, clearing, and mortgage technology platforms. The company delivered record first-quarter 2026 net revenues near $3.0 billion, representing about 20% year-over-year growth, supported by strong volumes and open interest. June 2026 statistics showed total open interest rising 20% year-over-year, with records in Asia gas and other segments. Despite these operational highlights, the stock has faced pressure in recent weeks, including analyst price target reductions, as investors weigh competitive dynamics and regulatory factors.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CME Group focuses primarily on derivatives trading and clearing with broad commodity and financial contract coverage, while ICE combines securities exchange ownership with derivatives and data services, creating distinct exposure profiles. Recent momentum favors ICE on revenue growth metrics, yet CME exhibits lower volatility consistent with its defensive beta profile. Both face sector risks including regulatory scrutiny and competition from other exchanges, though ICE’s mortgage technology segment introduces additional cyclical considerations. Market sentiment has been steadier for CME in recent activity, whereas ICE’s record open interest provides a tangible volume catalyst. Trade-offs include CME’s dividend consistency versus ICE’s emphasis on share repurchases and capital return flexibility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as revenue growth consistency, open interest trends, and relative positioning within recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a modestly higher probability of favorable near-term characteristics to ICE, though outcomes remain subject to earnings results and broader market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CME is a Buy and ICE is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CME’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileICE’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CME’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ICE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CME’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ICE’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CME’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ICE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CME (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +4.19% price change this week, while ICE (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +4.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was -3.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was -12.93%.
Reported Earning Dates
CME is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
ICE is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (-3.25% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
| CME | ICE | CME / ICE | |
| Capitalization | 92.2B | 82.4B | 112% |
| EBITDA | 6.1B | 7.53B | 81% |
| Gain YTD | -5.638 | -9.358 | 60% |
| P/E Ratio | 21.65 | 21.22 | 102% |
| Revenue | 6.76B | 13.1B | 52% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 3.42B | 21B | 16% |
CME | ICE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 34 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 37 Fair valued | 62 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 68 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 55 | 61 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 91 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CME's Valuation (37) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (62). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Profit vs Risk Rating (61) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (68). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's SMR Rating (55) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (61). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (57). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
CME's P/E Growth Rating (71) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (91). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
| CME | ICE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 28 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 40% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 32% | 3 days ago 50% |
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CME and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CME has been loosely correlated with ICE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CME jumps, then ICE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CME | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME | 100% | +0.39% | ||
| ICE - CME | 47% Loosely correlated | +1.80% | ||
| TW - CME | 45% Loosely correlated | -0.02% | ||
| MKTX - CME | 35% Loosely correlated | +2.08% | ||
| NDAQ - CME | 31% Poorly correlated | +1.85% | ||
| SNEX - CME | 23% Poorly correlated | -0.80% | ||
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ICE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ICE has been loosely correlated with MCO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ICE jumps, then MCO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ICE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | 100% | +1.80% | ||
| MCO - ICE | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.16% | ||
| SPGI - ICE | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.52% | ||
| TW - ICE | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.02% | ||
| TRU - ICE | 49% Loosely correlated | +3.63% | ||
| MSCI - ICE | 45% Loosely correlated | -0.31% | ||
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