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CMG vs WING
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) vs. Wingstop Inc. (WING) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CMG and WING have declined more than 30% over the past year, reflecting pressures in the quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector.
- CMG reported Q1 2026 comparable sales growth of 0.5%, a return to positive transactions, while WING saw an 8.7% decline in domestic same-store sales due to weather and consumer headwinds.
- CMG trades at a lower trailing P/E ratio of 30.3 compared to WING's 39.7, with a significantly larger market cap of $42B versus $4.4B.
- Recent market activity shows both stocks near 52-week lows, with CMG at around $33 and WING at $161, amid margin pressures and slowing growth.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight broader market trends favoring stability over high-growth volatility in the current environment.
Introduction
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Wingstop Inc. (WING) represent prominent players in the fast-casual dining segment, where digital innovation and menu simplicity drive customer loyalty. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, business models, and market positioning amid shifting consumer spending and economic pressures. Traders seeking relative value in the QSR space, and investors tracking growth stocks during a sector pullback, will find insights into momentum, valuations, and potential catalysts. With both shares underperforming broader indices in recent months, understanding their contrasts aids informed decision-making in today's volatile market.
CMG Overview and Recent Performance
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) operates a chain of fast-casual restaurants focused on customizable Mexican-inspired meals, emphasizing fresh ingredients and digital ordering. In recent market activity, the stock has traded near its 52-week low of $29.75, closing around $33 after a year-to-date decline of about 11%. Q1 2026 results showed revenue growth of 7.4% to $3.1 billion, with comparable restaurant sales up 0.5% driven by a return to positive transactions, though margins faced pressure from promotions and labor costs. Sentiment has softened due to broader industry challenges like GLP-1 weight-loss drugs impacting demand, prompting modest promotional efforts. Analyst targets average $43.50, suggesting potential upside, but near-term volatility persists amid economic uncertainty.
WING Overview and Recent Performance
Wingstop Inc. (WING) is a franchised chain specializing in cooked-to-order chicken wings, with strong emphasis on digital sales and international expansion. The stock has fallen sharply to around $161 from a 52-week high of $388, reflecting a year-to-date drop influenced by recent earnings. Q1 2026 revenue rose but domestic same-store sales declined 8.7%, attributed to adverse weather and consumer spending pressures, leading to trimmed full-year guidance. This marked the seventh straight quarter of decelerating comps, weighing on sentiment despite historical growth. Analysts maintain a higher average price target of $242, but downgrades highlight risks from softening traffic. Performance reflects franchise model resilience offset by macroeconomic headwinds.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CMG and WING both leverage digital channels in the QSR sector, but differ in scale and structure: CMG's company-owned model supports tighter quality control versus WING's asset-light franchising, which boosts margins but exposes it to royalty fluctuations. Growth drivers include menu innovation and delivery partnerships, though recent momentum favors neither—CMG with modest comp gains versus WING's declines. Risk factors overlap in consumer sensitivity to pricing and traffic erosion from health trends, but CMG's larger size offers relative stability. Valuations show CMG cheaper on P/E and price/sales, while WING trades at a premium for growth potential. Market sentiment tilts cautious for both amid sector rotation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward CMG over WING, based on superior recent comparable sales trend consistency, lower valuation multiples, and greater scale providing downside protection. While WING offers franchise leverage for recovery, its sharper sales deceleration introduces higher near-term volatility. This positioning suggests higher probability of relative outperformance for CMG in stabilizing conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMG is a Buy and WING is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileWING’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CMG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WING’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WING’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WING’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMG (@Restaurants) experienced а +9.85% price change this week, while WING (@Restaurants) price change was +14.10% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Restaurants industry was +9.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.24%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMG is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
WING is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Restaurants (+9.39% weekly)The industry includes companies that operate full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafeterias and snack bars. McDonald`s Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, YUM! Brands, Inc. and Restaurant Brands International Inc. are some of the largest U.S. restaurant-owning companies in terms of market capitalization. While restaurant spending could be viewed as discretionary for consumers, some companies in the business have been able to weather economic cycles by establishing strong loyalty among customers over the years. Many of them also have a strong global presence as well.
| CMG | WING | CMG / WING | |
| Capitalization | 41.3B | 4.42B | 934% |
| EBITDA | 2.31B | 217M | 1,064% |
| Gain YTD | -12.892 | -31.692 | 41% |
| P/E Ratio | 29.57 | 40.07 | 74% |
| Revenue | 12.1B | 709M | 1,707% |
| Total Cash | 869M | 129M | 674% |
| Total Debt | 5.25B | 1.27B | 413% |
CMG | WING | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 38 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 81 Overvalued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 89 | 91 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 86 | 84 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 36 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WING's Valuation (67) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as CMG (81). This means that WING’s stock grew similarly to CMG’s over the last 12 months.
CMG's Profit vs Risk Rating (89) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as WING (91). This means that CMG’s stock grew similarly to WING’s over the last 12 months.
CMG's SMR Rating (20) in the Restaurants industry is significantly better than the same rating for WING (100). This means that CMG’s stock grew significantly faster than WING’s over the last 12 months.
WING's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as CMG (61). This means that WING’s stock grew similarly to CMG’s over the last 12 months.
WING's P/E Growth Rating (84) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as CMG (86). This means that WING’s stock grew similarly to CMG’s over the last 12 months.
| CMG | WING | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 62% | 12 days ago 81% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 90% |
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CMG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMG has been loosely correlated with FRSH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CMG jumps, then FRSH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CMG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG | 100% | +3.14% | ||
| FRSH - CMG | 61% Loosely correlated | +2.44% | ||
| SG - CMG | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.77% | ||
| CAVA - CMG | 48% Loosely correlated | +3.10% | ||
| CAKE - CMG | 47% Loosely correlated | +0.40% | ||
| BJRI - CMG | 45% Loosely correlated | +1.54% | ||
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WING and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WING has been loosely correlated with FRSH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 50% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WING jumps, then FRSH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WING | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WING | 100% | +5.47% | ||
| FRSH - WING | 50% Loosely correlated | +2.44% | ||
| CAKE - WING | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.40% | ||
| CMG - WING | 44% Loosely correlated | +3.14% | ||
| FWRG - WING | 39% Loosely correlated | +3.77% | ||
| SG - WING | 38% Loosely correlated | -0.77% | ||
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