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CWST vs WM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Casella Waste Systems (CWST) vs. Waste Management (WM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CWST is a fast-growing regional waste company in the northeastern U.S., while WM is North America's largest, more diversified environmental-services operator.
- CWST has delivered stronger top-line growth, but its margins and returns remain below those of larger peers, drawing an activist campaign from Jana Partners in recent weeks.
- WM generates far larger revenue, free cash flow, and a recurring dividend, with disciplined pricing supporting steady margin expansion.
- Relative performance diverged recently: CWST jumped on takeover speculation, while WM trimmed its full-year revenue outlook amid softer volumes.
- For more detail, explore CWST Major News, CWST Today's Price Move, WM Major News, and WM Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioned across these and thousands of other tickers, visit the curated Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Waste management is often described as a defensive, recession-resistant industry, but not all operators in the space are alike. This stock comparison examines two companies at opposite ends of the scale: CWST, a regional, acquisition-driven growth story concentrated in the northeastern United States, and WM, a mature, diversified industry leader spanning collection, disposal, recycling, renewable energy, and healthcare solutions. Investors weighing growth potential against stability, or evaluating market positioning and relative performance in the current environment, may find this comparison a useful reference point for understanding how these two businesses differ in scale, momentum, and risk profile.
CWST Overview and Recent Performance
Casella Waste Systems (CWST) is a vertically integrated solid-waste and resource-management company headquartered in Rutland, Vermont. It provides collection, transfer, recycling, organics, and disposal services primarily across the northeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. The company has grown largely through acquisitions, including its 2023 purchase of mid-Atlantic assets from GFL Environmental, which lifted revenue sharply. In recent quarters, CWST has posted strong top-line expansion — revenue rose roughly 17% year over year in its second quarter — supported by solid waste pricing gains and acquisition contributions.
Recent market activity has been shaped by an activist campaign. In mid-October, investment firm Jana Partners disclosed a new position and publicly urged the company to improve profit margins and returns on invested capital (ROIC). Shares rose sharply on the news, and Jana noted that CWST's northeastern footprint and discounted valuation could make it an attractive takeover target. Analysts maintain a broadly favorable stance with a consensus "Buy" rating, though several firms have trimmed price targets in recent weeks.
WM Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Management (WM), based in Houston, is North America's leading provider of comprehensive environmental solutions. Its scale far exceeds CWST's: WM operates the largest disposal network and collection fleet on the continent, and its business now spans core collection and disposal, recycling, renewable natural gas (RNG), and a healthcare-solutions segment built in part through the Stericycle acquisition. In its most recent reported quarter, WM posted adjusted earnings that beat consensus estimates, with revenue rising about 4% year over year.
Profitability has remained a bright spot. Core pricing increased more than 5% in the latest quarter, and adjusted operating EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin expanded as cost discipline offset softer volumes. However, management trimmed its full-year revenue outlook, citing weather impacts, lower recycling brokerage activity, and delays in connecting two RNG plants. The company continues to return capital through a recurring dividend and share repurchases, though an elevated debt load remains a watchpoint.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI trading bots that monitor and trade thousands of individual tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and basket of securities. Because market conditions change, only a subset of these automated systems is well suited to the current environment at any given moment. The Trending AI Robots page curates the bots currently performing most consistently and most aligned with prevailing market dynamics, letting users compare their statistics, strategies, and tracked tickers side by side. Whether you are evaluating a growth name like CWST or a steady dividend-payer like WM, exploring these automated strategies can add a data-driven perspective to your research.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between these two companies is scale and diversification. WM's revenue base is several times larger than CWST's, and its operations stretch across recycling, renewable energy, and medical waste — categories where CWST has a smaller footprint. This gives WM a broader set of growth drivers but also exposes it to more variables, including commodity prices and integration risk. CWST, by contrast, offers a more concentrated, pure-play growth profile with meaningful acquisition upside in its core region.
Momentum and sentiment also differ. CWST's shares have benefited recently from activist involvement and takeover speculation, whereas WM has faced scrutiny over softer volumes and a trimmed revenue outlook despite stronger margins. Risk profiles diverge as well: CWST carries a thinner GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) net margin and higher execution risk around integrating acquisitions, while WM must manage a sizable debt burden and working-capital constraints. In short, CWST leans toward growth and catalyst-driven upside, while WM represents scale, cash flow, and income.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor WM for its steadier price behavior, stronger and more consistent profitability, recurring free cash flow, and established dividend — characteristics that tend to align with more reliable momentum signals. That said, CWST presents a potentially higher-upside, catalyst-driven profile given activist engagement, takeover interest, and faster revenue growth. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: a risk-tolerant trader may find CWST's recent momentum compelling, while a stability-oriented approach is more likely to favor WM's broader, cash-generative model.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CWST is a Buy and WM is a Buy.
CWST in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
CWST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 38 of 48 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CWST just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where CWST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The 10-day moving average for CWST crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +3.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CWST advanced for three days, in 191 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 149 of 257 cases where CWST Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CWST moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 60%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 67 cases where CWST's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CWST as a result. In 59 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CWST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
CWST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 34 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CWST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CWST’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.956) is normal, around the industry mean (47.597). CWST's P/E Ratio (1227.625) is considerably higher than the industry average of (56.657). CWST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.210) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.929) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
WM in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
WM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 24 of 47 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WM as a result. In 42 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The 10-day moving average for WM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 40%.
Following a +0.47% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WM advanced for three days, in 165 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 139 of 286 cases where WM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 49%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WM moved out of overbought territory on October 28, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 47%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 24 of 56 cases where WM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for WM turned negative on November 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
WM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. WM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.515) is normal, around the industry mean (47.597). P/E Ratio (33.370) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.657). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.888) is also within normal values, averaging (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.367) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
CWST | WM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 43 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 99 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 15 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 27 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 37 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 34 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WM's Valuation (81) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as CWST (99). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to CWST’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Profit vs Risk Rating (15) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CWST (76). This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than CWST’s over the last 12 months.
WM's SMR Rating (34) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CWST (90). This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than CWST’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Price Growth Rating (27) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as CWST (41). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to CWST’s over the last 12 months.
CWST's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WM (37). This means that CWST’s stock grew somewhat faster than WM’s over the last 12 months.
| CWST | WM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 64% | 15 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CWST’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CWST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CWST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CWST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- WM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CWST (@Environmental Services) experienced а -3.36% price change this week, while WM (@Environmental Services) price change was +1.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was +0.70%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
CWST is expected to report earnings on Feb 18, 2027.
WM is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (+0.70% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
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CWST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CWST has been loosely correlated with GFL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 40% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CWST jumps, then GFL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CWST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWST | 100% | -6.08% | ||
| GFL - CWST | 40% Loosely correlated | -7.56% | ||
| CLH - CWST | 26% Poorly correlated | +0.85% | ||
| GWAV - CWST | 9% Poorly correlated | -2.69% | ||
| QRHC - CWST | 2% Poorly correlated | -0.87% | ||
| WM - CWST | 2% Poorly correlated | +0.33% | ||
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WM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WM has been closely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WM jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.