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CWST vs WM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Casella Waste Systems (CWST) vs. Waste Management (WM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CWST, a smaller regional player in solid waste and recycling, shows higher growth potential with analyst price targets implying over 38% upside from recent levels around $80, but exhibits greater volatility.
- WM, the industry giant with a $92 billion market cap, offers stability and dividend reliability, trading near $230 with about 11% upside to targets, and lower beta of 0.55.
- Both stocks operate in the waste management sector, with recent acquisitions bolstering CWST's expansion and WM focusing on operational efficiencies amid upcoming Q1 2026 earnings.
- CWST has underperformed YTD at -18%, while WM is up about 5%, reflecting differing risk-reward profiles in recent market activity.
- Analysts rate both as buys, but CWST carries a Strong Buy consensus with earnings beats anticipated.
Introduction
In the resilient waste management sector, CWST and WM represent contrasting investment opportunities for traders and investors navigating current market dynamics. Casella Waste Systems (CWST) appeals to those seeking growth through regional expansion and acquisitions, while Waste Management (WM) attracts stability-focused portfolios with its national scale and consistent execution. This comparison highlights relative performance, sector drivers like recycling demand and regulatory shifts, and momentum in recent weeks, aiding decisions on stock positioning amid earnings season and economic uncertainty. Both benefit from essential services demand but differ in size, volatility, and growth trajectories.
CWST Overview and Recent Performance
Casella Waste Systems (CWST) provides integrated solid waste collection, recycling, and resource management services primarily in the northeastern U.S., emphasizing sustainability and landfill diversion. With a market cap of approximately $5 billion, it has pursued growth via strategic acquisitions, including a recent $38 million stake in Star Waste Collections, which drove a sharp intraday gain in early April. In recent market activity, the stock has traded around $80, within a 52-week range of $74 to $121, reflecting volatility with a beta of 0.84. YTD performance stands at -18%, though up 2% over the past month, influenced by leadership changes and anticipation for Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, where analysts expect $0.10 EPS on $454 million revenue. Sentiment has been supported by a Strong Buy rating and $116 average price target, amid solid revenue growth of 9.7% in recent quarters.
WM Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Management (WM), the largest U.S. waste services provider, operates a vast network for collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling across North America, with a focus on operational efficiencies and sustainability initiatives. Boasting a $92 billion market cap, its scale enables robust cash flows and a 22-year dividend growth streak. Recently trading near $230 in a 52-week range of $194 to $248, the stock shows stability with a beta of 0.55 and YTD gains of about 5%, though flat to slightly down over the past month. Key influences include insider sales and buildup to Q1 2026 earnings on April 28, projecting $1.75 EPS on $6.29 billion revenue. Analyst upgrades, like Baird's raised $260 target, reflect confidence in margins exceeding 30%, supporting positive market sentiment despite broader market dips.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CWST and WM share sector exposure to waste services, driven by steady demand, recycling trends, and M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity, but diverge in scale and risk. CWST’s nimble business model targets regional growth, yielding higher revenue expansion (9.7% recently) versus WM’s mature operations with steadier 14% TTM (trailing twelve months) growth. Momentum favors CWST’s 38% upside potential amid earnings anticipation, contrasting WM’s defensive posture and lower volatility (4.46% vs. 13.83%). Risk factors include CWST’s elevated P/E (649) and leadership flux versus WM’s dividend yield and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin focus. Market sentiment tilts toward WM for stability in uncertain times, while CWST attracts growth seekers despite YTD lag.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently lean toward WM with higher probability for near-term outperformance, citing its superior trend consistency, lower beta, massive scale, and analyst-backed catalysts like margin expansion ahead of earnings. While CWST offers compelling upside from acquisitions and beats potential, its volatility positions it as a higher-risk play in the current environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CWST is a Hold and WM is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CWST’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileWM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CWST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CWST’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CWST’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CWST (@Environmental Services) experienced а +4.04% price change this week, while WM (@Environmental Services) price change was -0.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was -1.84%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.85%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
CWST is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
WM is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (-1.84% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
| CWST | WM | CWST / WM | |
| Capitalization | 5.69B | 88.1B | 6% |
| EBITDA | 386M | 7.34B | 5% |
| Gain YTD | -8.750 | 0.713 | -1,227% |
| P/E Ratio | 812.45 | 31.76 | 2,558% |
| Revenue | 1.88B | 25.4B | 7% |
| Total Cash | 127M | 158M | 80% |
| Total Debt | 1.24B | 22.9B | 5% |
CWST | WM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 33 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 33 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 64 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WM's Valuation (33) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CWST (96). This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than CWST’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CWST (72). This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than CWST’s over the last 12 months.
WM's SMR Rating (33) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CWST (91). This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than CWST’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as CWST (58). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to CWST’s over the last 12 months.
CWST's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WM (64). This means that CWST’s stock grew somewhat faster than WM’s over the last 12 months.
| CWST | WM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 41% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 41% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 62% | 5 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 17 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 35% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 27% |
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CWST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CWST has been loosely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CWST jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CWST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWST | 100% | -0.43% | ||
| RSG - CWST | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.89% | ||
| WM - CWST | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.30% | ||
| WCN - CWST | 48% Loosely correlated | +0.41% | ||
| GFL - CWST | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.28% | ||
| CLH - CWST | 32% Poorly correlated | +0.35% | ||
More | ||||
WM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WM has been closely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WM jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.