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DOW vs OLN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dow Inc. (DOW) vs. Olin Corporation (OLN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DOW has delivered standout relative performance, rising roughly 66% year-to-date versus a low-single-digit gain for the broader market, supported by tightening polyethylene supply.
- OLN has lagged sharply, losing more than a third of its value over the past year amid soft chemical demand, operational disruptions, and elevated leverage.
- DOW offers an approximately 4.7% dividend yield and a low beta of roughly 0.41, while OLN maintains its long-running quarterly dividend despite balance-sheet pressure.
- OLN carries a transformative catalyst in its planned all-stock merger with Huntsman, targeting more than $400 million in cost synergies.
- Both are cyclical commodity-chemical producers, but their exposures differ: DOW skews toward packaging and plastics, while OLN spans chlor-alkali, vinyls, epoxy, and Winchester ammunition.
Introduction
Dow Inc. and Olin Corporation both operate in the economically sensitive chemicals and materials sector, yet their recent market trajectories have diverged significantly. This comparison is relevant for investors and traders evaluating how two established commodity-chemical franchises are navigating the same macro backdrop of Middle East supply disruptions, softer industrial demand, and persistent cost pressures. DOW has benefited from tighter resin markets, while OLN has contended with operational setbacks and a heavier debt load. Understanding the contrast in their business models, catalysts, and risk profiles can help clarify their respective market positioning and relative performance.
DOW Overview and Recent Performance
Dow Inc. is one of the world's largest materials science companies, serving packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer markets from manufacturing sites across 29 countries. In recent weeks, DOW has been among the stronger performers in the chemicals complex, with shares up sharply on a year-to-date basis. The primary driver has been a meaningful tightening in global polyethylene supply following disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict, which has lifted resin pricing and improved the earnings outlook across the company's packaging and plastics franchise.
Fundamentally, the company's first-quarter 2026 results reflected an adjusted loss, though narrower than consensus expectations, alongside revenue that beat estimates. Management has emphasized positive momentum from implemented pricing actions and pointed to its "Transform to Outperform" cost and productivity program as a structural earnings lever. Analysts have responded with a mix of upgrades and price-target adjustments, and the stock continues to offer an attractive dividend yield, reinforcing its appeal to income-oriented investors through a cyclical trough.
OLN Overview and Recent Performance
Olin Corporation is a vertically integrated chemicals producer and one of the leading U.S. manufacturers of ammunition through its Winchester brand. In contrast to DOW, OLN has underperformed, with shares down more than a third over the trailing year. The company has faced headwinds including weak global chemical demand, Asian import competition, an unplanned outage at its Freeport VCM (vinyl chloride monomer) facility, and a net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) ratio that has climbed to roughly five times.
Still, the story is not entirely defensive. Olin's Epoxy segment recently returned to profitability for the first time in over a year, the Winchester ammunition business is showing a commercial-volume recovery, and the company's "Beyond250" cost-reduction program is tracking toward meaningful structural savings. Most notably, Olin announced an all-stock merger with Huntsman that management frames as creating a larger, lower-cost North American chemicals leader, with the transaction expected to close in the first half of 2027.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most clearly on momentum and catalysts. DOW currently enjoys favorable supply-demand dynamics in polyethylene, giving it near-term pricing tailwinds and improving operating rates. Its lower beta and stable dividend position it as a relatively defensive way to express a chemicals recovery. OLN, by contrast, presents a more leveraged, turnaround-oriented profile: higher debt, near-term operational friction, but a larger slate of self-help catalysts, including the Huntsman merger, epoxy rationalization, and the Winchester recovery.
On risk, both remain exposed to the cyclical chemical cycle and energy costs, but OLN's elevated leverage and litigation-related cash payments add financial risk that DOW's stronger liquidity position helps mitigate. In terms of sector exposure, DOW is weighted toward packaging and specialty plastics, while OLN spans chlor-alkali and vinyls, epoxy, and ammunition — a broader, more idiosyncratic mix. Market sentiment has favored DOW's supply-driven pricing story over OLN's longer-horizon transformation narrative.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative performance, and near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely favor DOW in the current environment. The stock's sustained upward momentum, improving pricing backdrop, low beta, and defensive dividend profile present a more stable and trend-aligned setup than OLN, whose recovery depends on execution of cost programs, resolution of operational disruptions, and completion of a pending merger. That said, the verdict reflects probabilistic positioning rather than a definitive outcome — OLN's transformation could re-rate sentiment materially if its catalysts materialize, making it a higher-risk, higher-uncertainty counterpart to DOW's steadier trajectory.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DOW is a Buy and OLN is a Buy.
DOW in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
The 10-day moving average for DOW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
DOW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DOW advanced for three days, in 174 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 125 of 202 cases where DOW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DOW moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 61%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DOW as a result. In 57 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DOW turned negative on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DOW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
DOW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DOW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.430) is normal, around the industry mean (1.147). P/E Ratio (-17.158) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.243). DOW's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (38.891) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.769). Dividend Yield (0.045) settles around the average of (0.195) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.524) is also within normal values, averaging (0.578).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DOW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
OLN in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
OLN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 28 of 39 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on OLN as a result. In 50 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for OLN just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where OLN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The 10-day moving average for OLN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +13.08% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OLN advanced for three days, in 180 of 273 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for OLN moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OLN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
OLN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for OLN entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.153) is normal, around the industry mean (1.147). P/E Ratio (-10.006) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.243). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.050) is also within normal values, averaging (3.769). Dividend Yield (0.046) settles around the average of (0.195) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.289) is also within normal values, averaging (0.578).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. OLN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. OLN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
DOW | OLN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 41 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 93 | 94 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
OLN's Valuation (41) in the Industrial Specialties industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DOW (94) in the Chemicals Specialty industry. This means that OLN’s stock grew somewhat faster than DOW’s over the last 12 months.
OLN's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as DOW (100) in the Chemicals Specialty industry. This means that OLN’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
DOW's SMR Rating (93) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as OLN (94) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that DOW’s stock grew similarly to OLN’s over the last 12 months.
DOW's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as OLN (58) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that DOW’s stock grew similarly to OLN’s over the last 12 months.
DOW's P/E Growth Rating (51) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OLN (98) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that DOW’s stock grew somewhat faster than OLN’s over the last 12 months.
| DOW | OLN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 60% | 8 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DOW’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while OLN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- DOW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- OLN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DOW’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OLN’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DOW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- OLN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DOW (@Chemicals: Major Diversified) experienced а -9.51% price change this week, while OLN (@Chemicals: Major Diversified) price change was -1.65% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Major Diversified industry was -4.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was -24.18%.
Reported Earning Dates
DOW is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
OLN is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Major Diversified (-4.13% weekly)The major diversified chemicals industry includes companies that produce a wide range of chemicals and industrial gases. The products are often used as raw materials in the manufacturing of various types of goods, including plastics, paints, carpets, and fixtures to name a few. Major companies making diversified chemicals include DuPont de Nemours Inc., Celanese Corporation, Celanese Corporation and Westlake Chemical Corporation.
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OLN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OLN has been closely correlated with DOW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OLN jumps, then DOW could also see price increases.